a few thoughts

[covelj70]

1. Sekrah, for the love of Jesus on this Easter Sunday, please please please no more posts on Super Saver.  Let\'s start handicapping this year\'s Derby.  I had Super Saver as well. I talked alot about him on the board before last year\'s Derby and some people on the board know how much I took out of last year\'s Derby.  Who cares if we made a good call or we got lucky on the horse.  Doesn\'t matter.  We aren\'t giving the money back.  Let\'s focus on how we can make money on this year\'s Derby.

2. I continue to be baffled by how much attention Nehro is getting on everyone\'s Derby lists while the two horses who beat him in his last two races (both of whom ran faster figures than Nehro in those races) aren\'t getting any attention.  Pants on Fire and Arch both beat him straight up while running faster figures and no one seems to be talking about either of them.  Meanwhile, Nehro is all the rage.  The horse is eligible for a nw1.  His value will be awful on Derby Day given all of the hype.  Could he win?  Sure.  As has been said here and by everyone else this Derby season, there aren\'t any world beaters in here so he could win but he\'s going to be massively overbet

3. Speaking of not having any world beaters, I made this comment around this day last year and I think it\'s true again. There\'s not a single horse in this field that I wouldn\'t throw out if he drew the rail or one of the few outside posts.  None of them are good enough to overcome a terrible posts.  There aren\'t any Big Browns in this group. It really makes sense to wait for the post draw before falling in love with any of the horses over the next 10 days.

4. What about the Oaks?  The Oaks/Derby double is one of the best ways to hedge your Derby bet.  For anyone who looks at the sheets, it\'s pretty obvious that if R Heat runs her race, she will win this by a pole.  There are several sharpies on this board who don\'t believe she will run the same race that she has at Gulfstream this winter for alot of reasons.  I am having a hard time being objective about this one since I have a dog in the fight but I have to say that I can\'t see her getting beat.  There just aren\'t alot of questions about her.  She already ran well on this surface at the Breeders Cup, she already won at this distance at GP and she\'s 10 lengths faster than anyone else in the race on the sheets.  Now, she is a high strung filly who runs her race when she settles a little bit and maybe in front of 120,000 people she gets keyed up and goes to the lead along with Summer Soiree and Plum Pretty in what could shape up to be an insane H_Pace type of situation which would set it up for Joyful Victory or Zazu but unless something freaky happens, even with the bounce off the two big figs, she\'s much the best of these.  I am having a tough time handicapping my filly\'s chances in the race.  She\'s training outstanding and coming into the Oaks better than was going into the Ashland (she came come her last quarter in under 23 in her work over the weekend).  Maybe we get a repeat of last year when Evening Jewel went wire to wire to win the Ashland running a 4.5 in the process and then jumped to a 1.75 first time dirt to get into the Oaks photo.  We ran a similar fig with Lilacs and Lace to win the Ashland the same way and we are bred better for dirt than syn/turf and I don\'t have any worries about the distance with Seattle Slew and Alydar and two champion mares on the bottom side of our pedigree.  All that said, just as many don\'t jump up first dirt and we don\'t know how she will handle it until the gates open so she\'s a total wild card in the race.

5. I will be on the Churchill backstretch from next Saturday morning on through the Derby so will try to post whatever I learn from morning training here on the board.  

it\'s going to be an awesome two weeks.  Good luck to all of us.

[moosepalm]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 There\'s not a single horse
> in this field that I wouldn\'t throw out if he drew
> the rail or one of the few outside posts.  None of
> them are good enough to overcome a terrible posts.
>  There aren\'t any Big Browns in this group. It
> really makes sense to wait for the post draw
> before falling in love with any of the horses over
> the next 10 days.
>

I have nothing to add.  That was just worth repeating.

[Silver Charm]

You beat me to it. I was copying and pasting.

That might be the smartest comment I have ever heard on this Board!

[mjellish]

Jim,

I couldn\'t agree more with your comment about tossing a poorly drawn horse this year.  You said it last year too and I thought you were dead on then as well.  A few things to add.

#1 - This year\'s derby isn\'t a really a \"good\" horse race by historical KY Derby standards.  But it is an excellent betting race because:

#2 - The probable favorite is slow and a big, one run plodding horse.  He may get there, but he is going to need to get the trip to do it.  I don\'t think he recovers if he gets his momentum checked from anywhere after midway on the second turn.  The fact that most people thought Ice Box should have won last year with the same style and same trainer will mean the horse takes even more money than he should.

#3 - I agree that there is a lot of buzz about Nehro.  He\'s going to take a lot of money as well, and the horse has never won a stakes race.  People seem so enamored with the way he was moving late in his last two races, think that the extra 1/8th will get him there.  This is rarely the case.  Most of the time horses like him always come up just short.  And he just put in two big efforts and will coming in off 3 weeks rest.  Probably have to use him just in case, but underneath only and maybe even only as a saver.  My thought is if he hits the board he comes up short again.

#4 - If The Factor and Mo go you have two more horses that will take a lot of money and are easy tosses for me.  Distance, inability to relax and/or antibiotics.  Nuff said.  So I for one hope they both go.

#5 - Some of the other well thought of horses are very suspect at the distance, including almost all of the front runners.

#6 - the mid-pack pressers are going to get first run at the tiring speed and may have enough tactical speed to avoid a wide trip, and the ones that will be trying to run them down like Nehro, Archarcharch and Dialed In don\'t seem to have a lot of margin for error.

#7 - As an aside, Archarcharch may bounce anyway.  That\'s how I am reading his line right now unless he turns in one hell of a work.

#8 - Of the ones that are left that have at least shown they could run the number they probably need to run to win or take second, there are big differences on TG, Rags and Beyer.  So the odds should be spread out.  Once you get past DI, AAA and Nehro it\'s a complete toss up as to who people will be betting.  Soldat may take as much money as the Wood, SA Derby or LA Derby winners.

#9 - Given how weak the field is overall, it is likely that all it will take for a horse with marginal ability to lug up and it the board for the Tri or Super is a good trip.  Difficult to tell who that will be, but it will likely lead to a generous payoff.  Which means people that know how to construct a good wager, play the percentages and are diligent enough to punch out multiple, complicated tickets are going to have an even bigger edge than usual.  For example, what happens when a horse like Watch Me Go, who has already run a number fast enough, hits the 4th spot in the Super?  Not saying he will, but how many in the crowd are going to use a horse like that?

#10 - If there ever was a year to throw out some of the more rigid standards you usually apply to betting the Derby, this is it.  I still think the fundamentals are important, but like you said there isn\'t anyone you can\'t toss off a bad draw.  Just give me a fast track this year and let me see 3 horses work over it and I will have my key horse.

[SoCalMan2]

>
> #9 - Given how weak the field is overall, it is
> likely that all it will take for a horse with
> marginal ability to lug up and it the board for
> the Tri or Super is a good trip.  Difficult to
> tell who that will be, but it will likely lead to
> a generous payoff.  Which means people that know
> how to construct a good wager, play the
> percentages and are diligent enough to punch out
> multiple, complicated tickets are going to have an
> even bigger edge than usual.  For example, what
> happens when a horse like Watch Me Go, who has
> already run a number fast enough, hits the 4th
> spot in the Super?  Not saying he will, but how
> many in the crowd are going to use a horse like
> that?

Anybody know if they will be offering dime supers this year?

[sekrah]

I think I\'ve watched all of every contenders races tonight.

As far as who wants 1 1/4, I still can\'t get past Midnight Interlude, Archarcharch, and Santiva.

And in principal I agree with mjellish about closers.   95% of the time they look more impressive than they actually are and stretching out is usually counter productive, but Nehro passes my clockers test.  But at his likely price and trip, he\'ll be an underlay.   Still wouldn\'t be shocked to see him win and I think he\'s a use.

I can\'t wait for post positions to be drawn.  Will certaintly help clear some of this mess up.

The most impressive resume of races I\'ve watched tonight has to be Brilliant Speed.  He\'s going to be a monster on the turf/synth down the road, but it\'s extremely difficult for me to bet on this one to bring it over to the Churchill dirt though.   Workouts will be very interesting.

[Michael D.]

First of all, I love the passion the triple crown season invokes.

As for the Derby, I don\'t love any of the horses this year, but a few of the humans are interesting.

I got some action down on Stay Thirsty after the prodding from Jerry (at a good price). Distance is a concern, but he\'s got the fast figure at two and is bred to go forever. Ran away from Toby in the Gotham, and that one had every chance to run him down. The ability to rate is also a concern. That\'s where Calvin comes in. SS, MTB, and SS all had problems harnessing their speed/run before Calvin took over at CD. No guarantee it works again, but I like my odds. He just worked well over the muddy surface, and it\'s rained every day for like 2 straight months in every town east of Omaha. The odds on this guy will, however, collapse come Derby day if Borel has the mount, ruining all value in the win pool. That\'s why I got in early. If Calvin does not get the mount, and he might not if Mo doesn\'t run, I\'m holding a dead ticket(s).

And then there\'s Baffert. If I looked at MI\'s pp\'s, sheet, breeding, jock, and all that other good stuff minus the trainer, I\'d just toss this guy out of confusion. Not with Baffert though. These long-striding turf types simply run well in the triple crown when Baffert is in charge.

After those two, it comes down to race shape. If a ton of speed shows up, and if the CD surface looks to be favoring closers, I won\'t over think this one. I will just use Nehro. I will also use one of the turf horses if it\'s a closer day, and Brilliant Speed looks to have more dirt breeding than the other 2. If it looks like a speedball day, I will move up POF, who has a pretty good sheet.

So the early read is Stay Thirsty with Calvin (though I\'m locked in either way now), probably Nehro, Midnight Interlude, and either BS or POF depending on race shape/conditions.

And this will all probably change a few times before the gates open, but it\'s fun to talk about.

[ajkreider]

Brilliant Speed would look better to me if he hadn\'t tried the dirt before, and hadn\'t looked really bad doing it.

[toppled]

Her sheet scares me a bit because it reminds me of the many failures in the Derby who have run 1st time negative numbers in April and paid the price in May.  Now I know the Oaks isn\'t the Derby, but the fact that her best #s were both at Gulfstream and were so much better than anything she ran as a 2yo gives me some doubt that she can run well in the Oaks.  
Now for those who can beat her, I\'m looking at a top 3 of Zazu, Joyful Victory and a filly who finished behind RHL, but got a better sheet # that day, Delightful Mary.  Here\'s a case I can make for each, if, and it\'s a big if, RHL shows the effects of that negative number.  

Zazu: She\'s only gone back once in her whole career, a slight 3/4 move as a 2yo.  Her latest was a 2 point new top that she\'ll have 2 months to recover from and has been training steadily at Hollywood.  Sadler & Rosario can\'t hurt.

Joyful Victory: She\'s been flawless at Oaklawn since Jones got her from Tony Dutrow.  Now last year she was no match head to head with RHL, but if RHL doesn\'t run her race, JV is a definite contender.  I like that she paired her debut top in her 3yo debut, then moved a point forward trouncing the previously unbeaten Arienza.  

Delightful Mary: This half sister to multiple stakes winner Delightful Kiss will be a huge price off a poor 7th to your filly at Keeneland.  What intrigues me about her is that her top is over the CD surface and it\'s her only dirt race.  I like the fact that although RHL beat her by 2.25 lengths, she ran a point faster than RHL on her sheet that day.  

If you\'re wrong about RHL & I\'m wrong about these three, then I hope you\'re in the winner\'s circle with L&L.

[miff]

\"Delightful Mary: I like the fact that although RHL beat her by 2.25 lengths, she ran a point faster than RHL on her sheet that day\".

Top,

You may want to look at that replay.RHL did ALL the running in that race compared to DM who received a ground loaded faster fig.

Many on the same angle with RHL, \"Gulfstream off\" which, if not correct, will be like throwing money down a sewer. She towers over on all figs(app 10 Lengths faster going in) if no MO, maybe she tries the slower Derby boys with a weight edge to boot.

Like the Jones horse, JV, to run her best ever notwithstanding 2 perfect set ups in a row and slowish figs. Does Sadler(ZAZU) ever ship EAST and win? Anyone.


Mike

[jack72906]

The first thing I ask myself when handicapping this race is who can run 10f? Then it comes down to the post position draw. Any horse, regardless of price that draws pp 1 or anything between 16-20 will be a toss from being considered the key horse. Other obvious factors are pattern, race shape, etc...

If I find a key horse that\'s 4-1, 7/2 I don\'t have a problem keying that horse because recent KD have shown that the value is underneath. The exception in recent years is obviously MTB, but if Nehro draws well, he will have to be considered for the top spot regardless of price.

There have been a lot of posts claiming that he\'ll be underlay. I\'m curious what people think will be an underlay. 6-1? If that\'s underlay with bombs underneath and the bettor knows how to construct a ticket/wager seems like there\'s a lot of value there.

[toppled]

I\'ll look at that replay, there\'s still plenty of time-if RHL is working well, I\'ll have to reconsider.  The main problem I have with her figs are the last 2 tower, but the rest, including her 3yo debut don\'t.  Once again-I\'ll consider her works before throwing her out.  
Here\'s the deal on Sadler: I looked at his CD stats on formulator. He\'s 3/19 at CD, 3/14 without the Breeder\'s Cup races.  His 3 wins were all last spring when he went 3/8 including 0/1 in the Oaks & 0/2 in the Derby. He won the Humana Distaff 5/1 after an April win at SA; Won an Alw on 4/25 and won the Derby Trial with a horse who he had shipped east to finish 2nd in the Bay Shore at Aqueduct. Rosario was on 1 winner, Borel on the other 2.

[miff]

Top,

Thanks for the Sadler info, seems a mere mortal out of Cali. On RHL, don\'t forget she is now 3 and allowed to have developed off her 2 yr old figs.RHL not a one fig wonder either.Trying to find a case against RHL,just hope I\'m not tackling a legit 800 pound gorilla.

Mike Welch watched her all winter so his \"informed eyes\"(Rich Curtis out there?)will be seriously factored in by me.


Mike

[ajkreider]

I don\'t think you can toss Dialed In from any of those posts, given the way he runs.  He\'ll almost certainly be 1W, trailing the field around the first turn, and that\'s a position you get have for free from any post.