This Unlce Mo work today really has me confused

[covelj70]

I fully expected to come in this morning and read from Mike Welsh that Calibrachoa outworked Uncle Mo and that Uncle Mo was under urging at the wire to keep up with his stakes winning workmate and then have Pletcher declare him a non-starter in the derby

That fact that Uncle Mo apparently outworked Cali quite easily at the very least makes me think twice about completely tossing him.

I usually wind up overthinking these pre-derby workouts every year and give myself a big headache in the process but I really wasn\'t expecting this today.

I expect the next 20 posts will say something to the effect of \"great, I want him to run, he\'s a toss on distance limitations, etc and he will take money\" and they may prove to be right but as we all agree, there\'s no great horses in this race so I don\'t think we can toss one of the good ones who\'s now apparently training very well without at least some further consideration.

Thoughts? (other than \"I am happy because he\'s a toss and will take money\")

[moosepalm]

He\'s a joker in the deck.  If he goes, I hope he draws #20.

[miff]

Cov,

The tossers will be chewing their tickets \"if\" MO can show up 90%, I doubt he can possibly be 100% by derby day.

If his coat gets better(was poor pre Wood) and he\'s galloping/working strongly in the next 10 days, he may embarrass this common bunch.

Lets not forget he towers over these anywhere near his best.For the distance limited argument, the guy who rides him stated that MO was strong to the wire at the end of every race, except the Wood(mulligan for infection or just a bullshit excuse?)



Mike

[RICH]

I can\'t play a short priced horse that hasn\'t got back to those big tops, in addition, to much babying this one for me. \"I am happy because he\'s a toss and will take money, sorry couldn\'t resist

[firmturf]

You might have typed your answer in the original post:

\"I usually wind up overthinking these pre-derby workouts every year\"

[RICH]

....then again, I keep getting drawn into that MMM line, and he hasn\'t got back to his 2yr top, but the cycle back line seems intriguing. Very different derby on the sheets this year. I\'m even looking at MOH, which I attribute to that devastating$$ loss in Dubai I still remember

[albany]

How are the sheets diferent this year? Is it just the raw numbers or is there a lack of any appealing patterns?

[sekrah]

I think there\'s some patterns out there if you draw line through legitimately troubled trips:

The vets told Jinks Fires that Archarcharch was shaking like a leaf after Alternation kicked him in the stalls of the Rebel.  If that\'s a 2, how does he look now?

Mucho Macho Man threw a show in the La Derby.  If he pairs up the Remsen how does he look now?

Santiva\'s Bluegrass looks like a total toss, synth/squeezed/slow pace/pinned down for 5 furlongs.

Midnight Interlude hasn\'t gone backwards yet and looked spectacular exiting the SA Derby, as if he hadn\'t done a thing.

[albany]

Interesting.

There have been a number of years in which two or more of the top finishers in the Derby also ran close together in the same prep race(s). The Europeans often look at handicapping in this type of relational manner. In any event, you seem to be taking a fancy to AAA and MMM. Assuming these two are legitimate, does it make sense to construct a 4 horse ticket that also includes Pants on Fire (who beat a compromised MMM in the La. Derby) and Nehro (who ran well against AAA, MMM and Pants on Fire)?

[pizzalove]

I think we have to look at the realistic possibility that this horse may be coming up to his last race.  Brilliant 2 year old that may have been under too much stress with those early performances.  If horses that have had excellent three year old campaigns like Holy Bull and Point Given couldnt get it done in the derby why would I think a horse that has done nothing but beaten some low level allowance horses could win the biggest race.  He didnt even run until mid march after that great two year old season.  Im guessing leg trouble.  His race in the wood with the perfect trip against a group of pigs couldnt of been more telling.  Im staying away with a complete toss here.

[jack72906]

Seems a little harsh PL. I\'ll refrain from calling them \"pigs\" but this isn\'t exactly the best crop of 3yo this year so I\'m not going to bash the horse for who he\'s beaten.

Distance questions? Maybe, but at 90-100% he\'s arguably better than the entire field by a long shot.

[pizzalove]

Sorry.  I didnt mean to sound so harsh.  I am admittedly irritated with how this horse was handled by Pletcher.  I do agree that 90-100% of his two year old form wins this race but he hasnt come close to that this year.  Toby ran a nice race in the Wood but before the race everyone including many on this board was talking about the incredibly weak field and set up for Mo.  Wish he was still brilliant.  I feel Pletcher has effed up another one.

[Wrongly]

What was the stats on a horse running too fast too early?  I know we had decision on it in the past with several great examples, or am I stepping on things that will be covered in the seminar?

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

I still think Mo is the most likely winner of the Derby.  After the Timely Writer, it was just about unanimous that the final figure of that race was meaningless because they jogged for 4 furlongs before sprinting home.  Now, revisionist history, after the Wood, says that the Timely Writer was a bad race and the first sign that he was \"over the top\" and \"didn\'t develop from 2 to 3\".  Yes, the Wood was downright despicable and awful and every other adjective you can think of.  But if the horse was sick and is now \"almost\" better, how can anybody toss him with confidence?  

I believe Mo will go off the favorite, around 7-2 to 4-1.  Legends die hard.  The \"over/under\" on his off odds before the Wood was around 8-5.  The \"alternative\" favorite is Dialed In, with a top of \"3\".  Nice pattern, possible new top, but a \"3\".  Really?  Mo had three straight 0\'s last year, and even if you factor in that Beyer and Rags had Mo\'s races different, all three had him dominant.  

I, for one, was hoping for him to train poorly and scratch, so I can find value betting against Dialed In, in the win slot, as a plodding and relatively slow closer, very likely to get stuck in traffic.  

This is an extremely slow and unaccomplished group in the Derby, with the two talented horses being The Factor and Uncle Mo.  The Factor is now out.  Mo likely doesn\'t have to be all the way back to beat these horses.  

I will find a reason to bet against him, as i won\'t take the favorite in the Derby, but if shows up in the gate, he won\'t be an easy toss.

BTW, I am laying 3-5 that Battaglia makes Dialed In the morning line favorite, but Uncle Mo goes off the post time favorite.

[jbelfior]

Jimbo:

With the fractions  likely to be average, Uncle Mo  owns a huge pace advantage (assuming favorable draw)in here. He can comfortably stalk and put in a quick move whenever asked.

However, I see him getting run down in the lane late by-------still not sure.  Anyone who leaves \'Mo off of their tickets  is asking for pain.  I\'m not buying into  that if a 3yo doesn\'t get back to his 2 yo number by his second start he\'s cooked. Life and handicapping the Derby are just not that simple.

PS: IMO, Zito and Asmussen will vie for the favorite\'s role.


Good Luck,
Joe B.