MMM LA Derby

[TopForm]

Need some help with the La Derby, did MMM throw a shoe? and if so, what effect would that have on the stretch run. Appreciate any feedback.

[jbelfior]

Aside from the shoe issue, MMM, in my opinion, is a nice colt with a good tracking style.

An average pace scenario will certainly benefit him, however they\'re playing catch-up which may explain the fast works.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Lost Cause]

Kathy Rivo is not high on my list of trainers to bring back horses.  Anybody have info on her stats?
Also, does this horse have a weird running style?  Can\'t quite put my finger on it or maybve i\'m imagining but he looks a little off when running.  Like his head is too high up..I\'m talking about the risen star.

[TopForm]

I am having trouble quantifying the lost shoe in  the LA Derby in terms of his TG number. Up until this point he had the look of a stalker type that took first crack at the speed and finished well.Good 2yr old top and moving in  the right direction. Liked the way he put away santiva in the stretch run. Even though he moved forward on his TG number in the LA derby from the previous two, I am a little concerned about the stretch run in this race. He looked as though he would run by POF twice and flattened out. Could this be a result of the lost shoe? Would love to hear thoughts on the dynamics of that race and weather this horse will appreciate 1m 1/4. I appreciate your feedback....

[RICH]

Perhaps she passed that high pain tolerance on to Mucho Macho Man, who ran every step of the way in the Louisiana Derby with only three shoes and came out of the race a bit foot sore.  

“When I saw him lean in down the stretch, I said, ‘Oh my God, tell me this horse didn’t just get hurt,’ Carole said. “Whenever a horse does that who had never done it before it usually means something happened to him. When I heard he had lost the shoe I figured it had to hurt him. And it was his white foot which is more sensitive, and his right front, which would cause him to lean in if it was stinging him.”

[RICH]

Ritvo, a 41-year-old mother of two, said her horse appeared none the worse for wear despite the shoe mishap.

“The horse is doing fine this morning,\" she said. “I’m not discouraged at all. I don’t see any reason right now that we can’t go on and shoot for the Kentucky Derby with him.”

“We can’t win every time,” said the always upbeat Ritvo. “We’d like to, but we can’t. We’ll just put what happened yesterday down as a learning experience, but you would think that when a horse loses a shoe right out of the gate it probably costs him two lengths, or at least one length.



Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/62148/pants-on-fire-mucho-macho-man-going-to-derby#ixzz1KgawvAhv

[miff]

Top,

Impossible to quantify what the lost shoe meant. Horses have lost shoes before and still won. Realistically, it could not have helped MMM and maybe did not allow him to run his best.

MMM comes in with app 7 weeks spacing,usually an auto toss for me as no horse has ever won with that spacing. MMM, however, is a light framed horse that had time for his feet to heal and worked big on two occasions in Florida.His Remsen fig could win this derby and his pattern looks forward to me.

In total, think he has license to run a good race, even win.Something negative about the trainer,Kathy Ritvo was posted. The poster has no idea how irrelevant the trainer is vs raw talent/ability of the animal.

Good Luck
Mike

[number5858]

We will have to consider everything once the facts are known. If MMM is in PP 1,2 or 18,19,20 at 4-1, well then that\'s one thing. If MMM is 16-1 breaking from pp 9,10,11, well that is an entirely different thing. As long as the horse continues to work well and has a decent post position, then he will be a part of my plays. Assuming the horse ends up with an ok post position, does anyone have a guess as to the odds? Seems a candidate to be the wise guy horse they come up with every year and depress the odds on him.

[TopForm]

Thanks miff,
             I did not know that stat on 7 weeks rest. I will consider.

[big18741]

It\'s a six week gap from the La Derby-to the Ky Derby.

Don\'t see that being a deal breaker.MTB and Ice Box in the last two ran back on the same kind of spacing.

Other issues with MMM to consider that could get me off him.Post draw/running style and another furlong to think about.He was on even terms with Pants on Fire in the stretch of the La Derby before backing out late.No way to know if that was shoe related.

[miff]

\"It\'s a six week gap from the La Derby-to the Ky Derby\"

Big,

Correct on 6 weeks spacing, not 7. A few have run well, most up the track though. Sooner or later someone will break the spacing thing.

Mike