Alm,
I\'m not really a sheet capper in the purist sense. I\'m more of an eclectic. But I will throw my two cents up here on the board.
Mo still hasn\'t looked like he did last year. And he hasn\'t run back even close to his 2YR old top in two tries and is now coming off his worst race. That can\'t be anything but a negative. And although everyone would love to see the next Affirmed, when people starting making all kinds of excuses it usually ain\'t good. But if you like him to rebound it at least helps your odds. For me, if you throw in some missed training, antibiotics, etc. I don\'t think he runs his best. He may run better than he did in the Wood, but I\'m thinking short horse in the stretch. He\'s also by Indian Charlie who throws more of the sprinter and miler types. I think he may get a little stamina on the bottom side from Arch, who won at 1 1/4. So for me he\'s not an easy toss, but he\'s a toss nonetheless. And he will stay that way unless I see him work lights out early next week, in which case I may use him as a small saver only.
Mucho Macho Man ran an awfully fast Remsen, but he hasn\'t gotten back to that number yet either. So that\'s a negative. But he has a forward looking line this year even with losing a shoe, and from what I hear he was working lights out in Florida after the LA Derby. So he could pop a big number, but he\'s also bred more for speed than stamina. He may have the right style for this though because the race has lost some of it\'s early luster. I think the front runners are suspect and the pace will be honest, but it doesn\'t have to be brutal. So he should be in the group that gets first chance to benefit by stalking the and getting first run at the tiring leaders. I\'m thinking he\'s going to run out of gas at the distance and turn out to be more of miler or 7F specialist down the road. But you never know. Probably have to use him defensively. especially if he works well at Churchill.
Archarcharch has a pretty good looking sheet relative to this year\'s bunch. He ran a nice number at 2 and his last is only 2.5 faster than that. So while he may bounce after a new lifetime best, he doesn\'t have to. Definitely bred to like the distance as well. Another one you probably have to use, maybe even the most likely winner. But even if he is I would only put that percentage at somewhere around 20%. And he seemed to hang after making the lead in the ARK Derby and waited for Nehro to catch him.
Shackleford has an interesting sheet. He ran a decent number at 2 at Churchill. Moved forward in his first start at 3. Then backed way up in FOY after getting hung wide. He then moved forward again in the FL Derby and hung on well after setting a very honest pace. The fact that he bore out isn\'t a good sign, but he\'ll have 5 weeks. He\'s not exactly bred to get 1 1/4, but he gets stamina on the bottom and he\'s had 3 races at 1 1/8th. He\'s going to be a price, but if he draws well he could hit the board. He\'s my bet for the \"wise guy\" horse this year because that\'s who I hear some of \"them\" talking about.
Nothing wrong with Dialed In\'s sheet. He really didn\'t have a chance to run his race 2 back when they absolutely crawled up front 113.8 for the 3/4. Horses can\'t run a 21 and change final 1/4 to make up for that type of early fraction, so I think you can forgive the slight regression on his sheet. So I am looking at his sheet as if he is coming off a pair of tops, which is probably the best overall pattern to have. I think a forward move is likely, which is good because he is going to need it. Otherwise he is too slow. And he is going to have to get the trip.
Nothing wrong with Toby\'s sheet, other than he has raced 4x this year already. He could move forward, but I don\'t think it\'s too likely. I don\'t like his pedigree for 1 1/4 either. Bellamy Road couldn\'t get the 1 1/4, and his dam-sire fell apart in the Derby as well.
Nehro has a good looking line of steady improvement. He improved 1 pt two back, and another 1/2 pt in his last. He may move forward by about that much again. But there is no reason to think he would suddenly improve 2 pts or more. And as a deep closer he\'s got the same problem as Dialed In. He\'s going to need to get enough pace to run at, and he could encounter traffic or have to go wide. Which means even if he did somehow manage to improve two points or more it may not be enough to win. He\'s also likely to be an underlay in my opinion. So while he\'s tough to toss, he\'s tough to use either.
Pants on Fire moved way forward in his last and bore out. So I wouldn\'t think he run another new top. But he has 6 weeks coming into this. So he could pair. But I don\'t think that puts him in the winners circle unless he gets a 1w1w trip and everyone else gets a tough trip regresses.
Midnight Interlude doesn\'t fit the profile at all. And no matter what fig you think he ran in his last, it was a big forward move. So a new top isn\'t likely. If you think he ran a 3.5 in the SA Derby then he\'s probably too slow here. If you think he ran a 1.5 he\'s got a shot as long as Espinoza doesn\'t try to go 4w4w again, which is pretty much how he usually rides. MI is bred to love the added distance though. He\'s an interesting horse, but I didn\'t like his work at all yesterday.
I\'ve already posted my opinion on Soldat.
Twice the Appeal looks way too slow to me no matter who rides him, and he\'s looked pretty bad at Churchill the last few days.
I usually don\'t like lines like Santiva\'s. One big fig that sticks out at 3 and was much bigger than anything he ran at 2, then followed by a bounce. I know the bounce came on Poly, but I don\'t see how the Bluegrass could have done anything for his conditioning. I don\'t think he\'s likely to run a new top or even back to the one he already established.
