Kentucky Oaks Through Beyer Glasses

[number5858]

http://www.drf.com/blogs/kentucky-oaks-through-beyer-glasses

I realize that Beyers aren\'t TG sheets, but it is an interesting article and looks like on the basis of the Beyers that the two stand outs are RHL (which we already knew) and Plum Pretty. Hard to like Plum Pretty on a jump from 79 to 99. I think Mr. Covel called it. RHL by a country mile, although Lilacs and Lace might just improve from her previous 29 Beyer on dirt. The rest of the board underneath looks wide open. Anxiously awaiting the post position draw and final sheets.

[jimbo66]

Number5858

That is one way to look at it.

I will give you another.  RHL has already run her race.  If negative numbers are \"knockout\" numbers for colts, imagine what they are for 3-year old fillies.  RHL ran a negative 2.

On top of the potential big bounce, I will point out how many Gulfstream \"horses for the course\" have there been over the years, that tank on less speed favoring surfaces.

To me, this Oaks is a good betting opportunity.  I believe that both Joyful Victory and Zazu are heading into the race with very live patterns and both are going to run their big race next FRiday.  Expecting big races out of both of them.  Zazu has yet to run in a race with a fair pace this year and still closed very well in both her races.  Joyful Victory has had perfect setups, but have to believe that she won so easily, she will not be over the top and run her best race next week.

Looking to play those two hard in the Pick-4\'s into that race and again in the Oaks/Derby doubles.

Just have to figure out which of the Derby slugs I want to bet on.  A much much harder decision IMO.

Jim

[RICH]

i agree, but I wouldn\'t dismiss delightful mary off her sheet

[sekrah]

I agree with jimbo.

RHL looks like a very good play against.

Joyful Victory and Zazu have explosive lookign patterns.  Wouldn\'t be shocked in the least to see either one of them fire a 1 or even a 0 on Oaks day, which should be more than enough to beat an RHL regress.

That\'s a solid duo to use in a oaks/derby double, but I\'d give an outside shot to Plum Pretty as Beyer is.

The one that could really light up the toteboard here that I have my eye on is Street Storm.  If she gets a good post, she\'s a use, how big a use depends on odds.   She needs to get in first though.

[jimbo66]

RICH,

Would love to hear why you like her sheet.

First time 3 year old, 2 points off her 2 year old top, next time out another regression.

She has one figure.  Granted, her races this year are poly and her one figure was at Churchill on dirt.  However, her one good figure was loaded with ground loss, earned with a 4w/5w trip where the rail was death.  That is about as phony a figure as there is.  (not saying it is \"wrong\" but the conditions under which it was earned make the real performance much much worse).  An opinion, for sure, but one which can be supported by her other races.

Good luck

[sekrah]

The more I look at it, the less I like Joyful Victory and the more I think Zazu will be one of my best bets of the entire weekend if she goes off at anywhere near 5-1 or higher.

Kathmanblue very intriguing as well.

[richiebee]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Number5858
>
> That is one way to look at it.
>
>  
> On top of the potential big bounce, I will point
> out how many Gulfstream \"horses for the course\"
> have there been over the years, that tank on less
> speed favoring surfaces.
>
> To me, this Oaks is a good betting opportunity.  I
> believe that both Joyful Victory and Zazu are
> heading into the race with very live patterns and
> both are going to run their big race next FRiday.
> Expecting big races out of both of them.  Zazu has
> yet to run in a race with a fair pace this year
> and still closed very well in both her races.
> Joyful Victory has had perfect setups, but have to
> believe that she won so easily, she will not be
> over the top and run her best race next week.
>
> Jim

To me Joyful Victory looks much more like a horse for course (the course being
Oaklawn) than does RHL. Also she faced 6 and 3 fillies in her 2 stakes wins at
OP, likely to face 13 in the Oaks. Also already beaten twice by RHL.

Island School, second to RHL in the GP Oaks, headed in the right direction and
bred to run all night (AP Indy/Kingmambo mare), but hasn\'t worked since the GP
Oaks.

Kathmanblu is \"Aunt Mo\", maybe more impressive at 2 than 3, with a 2YO dirt win
at CD, might offer some value as a 3rd fave in the 3/1 - 4/1 range.

[sekrah]

Kathmanblu = Aunt Mo?

WTF?  Are you looking at the same thorograph numbers as me or do we have different files?

That pattern is explosive heading into the Oaks.  I can\'t find one thing even remotely similar to Mo about her.

[richiebee]

Sekrah:

Relax. I haven\'t gotten the sheets yet.

Then read my post again.

You said she was a good play. I said she was a good play.

She won at CD as a 2YO. He won at CD as a 2YO.

Did Mo move forward as a 3YO? Has she moved forward as a 3YO? Off their Beyer
numbers, arguably not.

Now read the title of the thread. \"Kentucky Oaks THROUGH BEYER GLASSES\"

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

Couldn\'t agree with you more about Joyful Victory.  Her numbers are good, pattern is great and I think she moves forward in the Oaks.  Jones is alot like Baffert.  He beats \'em up in the mornings but those that make it through the ringer are really ready to run.  She\'s very live.

On Zazu, I have to take a stand against that one.  She hasn\'t raced in 8 weeks.  Would we play a colt in the Derby who\'s never run the distance he was about to run off an 8 week layoff?  There\'s no way we would play a colt in the Derby on those set of facts so there\'s no way I would play a filly in the Oaks on those set of facts.  Also, she\'s going to come from way out of it and lose a ton of ground in a 14 horse field.  No thanks for me on that one.

I still think RHL lays over this field but I have already made all of those arguments so I won\'t rehash.  Only thing I will add is that I tried to make the same \"over the top\" arguments against Big Brown (who also ran at GP) and Blind Luck (who also ran a negative number before the Oaks) and that didn\'t work out either time for me.  The big numbers catch up with them eventually but it doesn\'t have to be on Oaks/Derby day.

[Silver Charm]

Jim the numbers caught up with Big Brown no doubt. But so did a well know foot problem he had and the 3 races in 5 weeks grind. As far as Blind luck she seemed to just keep running those numbers the remainder of the year. BUT she never ran anything that big so there is a catch.

[RICH]

Sekrah

I don\'t see that as an explosive pattern at all, I don\'t think a horse that runs the same top 4 times in a row is explosive, to me he\'s stuck, and I look for a small regression in the short term, at short odds, this is a toss for me.

[RICH]

Jimbo,

The way I see it is if she gets a decent post and the odds are big, I am using. She ran big in the cup last year, take a look, wide the whole way, a sustained move on the 2nd turn, and finished well, first time on the dirt and at CD. She did run a top first time at 3yr against her poly top last year. She has room to develop off the bc race. Obviously, JD is tough, and will take tons of money, may go off the fav, but after her and RHL, what do we have? Kathmanblu is just as fast and stuck on a number, Zazu looked as good as Dmary until the 2 pt jump 8 weeks ago, Plum pretty? off a 5 pt top, she was slowww until then. These horses jump quickly, and I am trying to anticipate the jump before it appears on the sheet. However, I will need to see some good works and get paid at good odds for this anticipation. Just like her in the mix if I get it all. Good Luck

[number5858]

Sometimes the favorite is the favorite for a good reason. That just might be the case with RHL. I definitely have Big Brown in mind here. I have to wait for the sheets next Wed, the post position draw and the weather, but this may be one of those times where I don\'t try to beat the favorite. I don\'t know just yet, and that is what makes the game fun. I do know this. I hope the weather is good, that RHL gets a favorable post, and that she runs her best win or lose. I also very much hope that Lilacs and Lace runs her very best. I hope the Derby also has good weather. It\'s hard enough as it is to handicap without throwing in the slop. I just know I am looking forward to a great weekend of racing and hope that I have some luck and skill in my handicapping.

[toppled]

The 8 weeks on Zazu don\'t bother me.  Now I know it\'s 8 days longer, but she\'s taking the same route that Rags To Riches took in 2007-The Las Virgenes, followed by the SA Oaks, followed by the Kentucky Oaks.