Kentucky Oaks Through Beyer Glasses

[sekrah]

RICH,

Take a look at the surfaces she\'s been \"not developing on\".  She moved forward to the 4.5 on Churchill dirt, (her first dirt route after 4 on the turf)

Her next races:

4 on yielding turf,
4.5 on Fair Grounds dirt where she was rank during a very slow paced race
4 on her first on synthetic.

IMO, there is hidden development there that the figures haven\'t picked up on yet.  Coming back to Churchill Dirt, I expect a big number here.   She\'s a use for me.

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

I can understand your point on Zazu.  And I am pretty sure you will get agreement from TGJB in the seminar on the relative chances of Zazu and Joyful Victory, albeit not for the 8 week reason.  I can hear it now, something along the lines of:
 
\"hasn\'t move backward yet, which is a positive sign, but has already developed quite a bit from her 2 year old top and to expect further development at this point, is a stretch, A pair up is likely her best, which makes her a contender, but an underlay\".

I think the part you may be missing is that she ran the 2.5 under poor conditions.  She was closing on a speed track, with a lone frontrunner and a false pace.  I think this horse will absolutely love getting a real pace to run at, something she didn\'t see in California.

As for the 8 weeks off, I don\'t see it as ideal, but this is a filly who didn\'t have a break over the winter, running straight through, albeit spaced out.  My guess is the connections felt like another prep, then the Oaks, might be squeezing the lemon too dry.  

We will see.

[jimbo66]

RichieBee,

We will have to agree to disagree, albeit you are making your suppositions without seeing the figures.  Perhaps if you saw them, you might not be taking the same stance.

Joyful Victory ran a 4 going two turns last year, not at Oaklawn.  This year she has 4 and 3.  She only paired up and then moved forward 1 point at Oaklawn.  Hardly \"horse for course\" type statistics.  

R Heat Lightning, on the other hand, ran four or five \"5\'s\" last year over a few different tracks.  Then came to Gulfstream and ran 0 and negative 2. That would \"horse for the course\" circumstantial evidence.

[richiebee]

Jimbo:

Thanks for the response, but it wasn\'t necessary to release the proprietary
information. The Thorocommissioner has probably noted the offense.

Jim, I was surprised to look at DRF online today and see that the title of this
thread seems to have come -- verbatim -- from the title of a Watchmaker blog,
which I felt obligated to read.

I do not know much from Watchmaker other than that he apparently plays Ed McMahon
to TGAB\'s Johnny Carson on a weekly radio show.

In said blog, Watchmaker said the following of Plum Pretty. Is the statement
which follows a) heresy; b) rubbish; or c)a debatable truth?

[SEKRAH-- FEEL FREE TO DISAGREE STRENUOUSLY WITH A), B) AND C). BUT DONT JUMP ALL
OVER ME. I\'M QUOTING WATCHMAKER]

\"It is also plausible that the optimal conditions of the Sunland Park Oaks --
weak competition and easy trip -- enabled Plum Pretty to earn a Beyer that was
aberrational and one that would be difficult to approach under more competitive
conditions\"

I watched two races from OP the entire winter (the last 2). I have to look into
Joyful\'s two OP wins. I have no idea if these two would fit into the \"weak and easy\" parameters.

I did see RHL\'s 2 races, and the \"weak and easy\" parameters, in my most humble
opinion, applied here.

I will not be playing the horizontals on Oaks Day, but will try an Oaks/Derby
which deletes both RHL and JV.

[number5858]

That is where I took the title from. I had included a link to the article, but it didn\'t seem to carry over beyond the general URL for DRF.

[richiebee]

Joyful Victory

5f sy CD 5/1  58.90

[mjellish]

Not only that but she had a double gallop out, going her first extra furlong in a bit over 13.  Dusted her workmate from the 1/8th pole home.  That\'s a hell of a work.  Looks like she is moving forward and heading into the Oaks as good as she can be.