I have had the awesome opportunity to spend the last 2 days on the backstretch at Churchill.
Weather yesterday was awesome, today was terrible but it did stop raining long enough during the 8:30-8:45 window when the Derby horses are allowed to train without any other horses on the track that we could watch that session without getting soaked.
These thoughts are just random and free form, not organized in any order of importance or anything like that.
As always, a note of caution NOT to place too much importance on any of these comments. First of all, its easy to be wrong about physical observations of a horse. Second, things change alot from day to day with horses. Best example of this is Ice Box from last year. The horse looked like a cripple the day before the derby but there was some completely legal and permitted vet work done on the horse right before the Derby and he ran great obviously.
That said, my time spent on the back stretch has helped rule some out over the years that I would have otherwise considered using. Friesian Fire is one that comes to mind. I had seem him in the paddock of the Louisiana Derby earlier in the year and he was carrying his weight well and had a ton of energy. Then I saw him training during derby week and he was all \"tucked up\" (i.e. had lost alot of weight) and didn\'t have any energy at all. That allowed me to throw out what wound up being the favorite with alot of confidence (and I still lost a ton of money on that race because I am an idiot and I didn\'t include Calvin on my ticket).
So, that said, let\'s start with Calvin\'s mount. I would never use this horse if Calvin weren\'t in the irons but I am going to use him now. His breeze was exactly what they wanted yesterday. Much more importantly, one of the leading trainers that I was standing with yesterday watching the works told me he had walked the track the day before and that the area down by the rail (and he explained he meant right next to the rail close enough to touch) is so much harder and firmer than the rest of the track. That\'s what is meant by a \"live rail\" Whoever has the guts to be down there has a HUGE advantage (assuming the track stays the same for the rest of this week which is may not with all of this rain). By this trainers estimation, being on that rail is worth 5-6 lengths BEFORE taking ground loss into consideration. It\'s not a mystery why Calvin has won all of these races and I will be using Twice the Appeal as a result.
Other track observations is that yesterday before all the rain, the track was very loose and tiring. You saw alot of the derby workers come home alot slower than they went out and then tire after the wire with bad gallop outs. Everyone on the backside agreed that last night\'s card would play to closers given how loose and tiring the track was in the morning (I didn\'t play last night but I looked at the charts and that\'s what happened). If it dries out by derby day (which it should based on the forecast, I would look for mid pack and closing types based on how loose and tiring this thing is. Could always change during the week and maybe they make it rock hard for derby day but it\'s something to keep an eye on.
The other issue with the track being loose and tiring is that I think not having a breeze over this track before the Derby/Oaks is a HUGE disadvantage. This track is playing much much looser and tougher than most tracks. I think Dialed in and Soldat and Zazu are in trouble for not having a breeze over this track, especially Zazu who hasn\'t run in 2 months. There\'s no way she\'s going to get this distance, on this surface, coming from the back of the pack without having a breeze over it. She will not my anywhere on my ticket.
In terms of observations on the horses themselves, there were only a few real standouts in either direction for me. It\'s still early in the week and I haven\'t seen them all train but the 3 I will definitely rule out are Mucho Macho Man, Santiva and Stay Thirsty. Mucho is a very light framed horse, not the big robust type that you need to survive getting bounced around in the Derby. He\'s not holding alot of weight and he had to be whipped three times at the wire yesterday in his breeze. Just not what you are looking for in a derby winner. I know how good his pattern is but he doesn\'t look like a horse to me that\'s ready to run back to a \"0\". I would be really surprised if he hits the board. Santiva doesn\'t look like a happy horse at all, he\'s not striding out and doesn\'t have a ton of energy. Stay Thirsty just doesn\'t look like a derby winner to me. Smaller horse, not big and robust like we like to see, has just trained ok, Couldn\'t keep up with Uncle Mo in the latter stages of the gallop out today. He doesn\'t look like a derby winner.
In terms of Uncle Mo, he looks fine, not great, not terrible. He\'s a light framed horse as well. Not like MMM but not big and robust like I like to see either. He breezed well, galloped out well. Not like a superstar or anything but can\'t rule him out off the breeze. He\'s the tough one in here for me. I can\'t throw him out but for alot of reasons, I can\'t like him too much either distance, pattern, missed time, etc).
The two colts that have made the strongest impression are Brilliant Speed and Archarcharch. I know it\'s easy to dismiss BS as a turf horse and I fell into the same trap last year with how well Stately Victor looked and was training but Brilliant Speed is a great looking horse who is training with a ton of energy. Hard for me to throw him off the tickets. The other one is Archarcharch. He is built like a sherman tank. Not that tall but man is he broad. He is built more like a sprinter than a classic two turn horse but he got the mile and and eigth well enough and the pedigree says he\'s ok for the distance. I actually went to the farm where his half brother yearling by Silver Train is boarded and you can see the big bone runs in the family. The yearling is a May foal and he\'s robust as well. Arch\'s breeze was great and he went back to the track the day after the breeze just to prance around and then today he jogged but it was damm near a gallop which was impressive for how fast he worked 2 days ago. He looks every bit of a derby winner to me. He is most certainly not training like he will bounce and the track may well be playing to his exact running style. Pending the post draw, he\'s my top pick.
The only oaks filly that has really made a big impression on my one way or the other is Joyful Victory. She is also an extremeley light framed filly who doesn\'t carry alot of weight at all but that\'s how she\'s always been and man o man does she train with alot of energy. Her gallop out today after her fast breeze was great. R HEat Lightining breezed fine yesterday but she doesn\'t look anywhere near as good over the track as JV. Those two are very clear standouts to me in this Oaks field. Maybe one of them gets beat but I don\'t see them both getting beat and I really don\'t like Zazu at all so I think it\'s those 2 and then everyone else in the Oaks.
Hope these thoughts are useful for everyone. Good luck this week
