Will Pays?

[joekay]

Had St.John\'s hooked up with 8, now down to three with Plum Pretty ( 1, 2, 16 ).  Can someone please post the will pays?   Thanks.

[BB]

1-220
2-553
3-601
4-508
5-1642
6-883
7-447
8-122
9-995
10-1098
11-371
12-513
13-249
14-353
15-191
16-345
17-247
19-170
20-2068

[toppled]

Based on my method of calculating the odds using daily double will pays, these are how they were bet in the DD vs current odds.  The ones that aren\'t close should move either up or down based on the discrepancy:
Horse #DD Odds Odds at 7:30pm Friday
1   7  13
2  18  30
3  20   7
4  16  17
5  54  41
6  29  43
7  14   9
8   4 9/2
9  33  29
10 36  21
11 12  18
13  8  12
14 11  19
15  6  10
16 11  24
17  8  17
19  5   8
20 68  28

I\'m alive with 1,14,15,17,19; and I win the most if AAA wins.

[BB]

Toppled, I get somewhat higher odds. I did it on a straight pro-rata of the DD pools and used a 16% takeout.

Approximate implied win odds   

Archarcharch    9.0
Brilliant Speed    24.1
Twice the Appeal 26.3
Stay Thirsty    22.1
Decisive Moment    73.6
Comma to the Top 39.1
Pants on Fire    19.3
Dialed In    4.5
Derby Kitten    44.2
Twinspired    48.9
Master of Hounds 15.9
Santiva            22.3
Mucho Macho Man    10.3
Shackleford    15.0
Midnight Interl    7.7
Animal Kingdom    14.7
Soldat            10.2
Nehro             6.7
Watch Me Go    93.0

[jbelfior]

Tremendous opportunity for big score lies with the Woodford/Derby doubles.
Derby exotics a crapshoot.
 


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[sekrah]

Feeling better about my sportsbook futures after looking at those odds.

Archarcharch 45-1
Pants on Fire 30-1
Santiva 44-1
Midnight Interlude 25-1

[plasticman]

Anyone know if there\'s a running toteboard that shows how much money is bet on each horse and the odds? On Ky Derby dot com they have the updated odds, but not the pool totals. Anyone know the current pool size? I don\'t want to really read into these odds if the pool is really small (compared to what the final pool is going to be)

[sekrah]

This is last years Derby.  The morning line odds are in parenthesis (), the next column has the Advance Wagering Odds from last year\'s Derby (4/30/10, Friday night), followed by the post time odds in brackets

1. Lookin at Lucky (3-1 ML), 9/2 Friday Advanced, [6-1 Post Time]
2. Ice Box (10-1), 13-1, [11-1]
3. Nobles Promise (12-1), 23-1, [24-1]
4. Super Saver (15-1), 13-1, [8-1]
5. Line of David (30-1), 36-1, [20-1]
6. Stately Victor (30-1), 21-1, [20-1]
7. American Lion (30-1), 33-1, [23-1]
8. Dean\'s Kitten (50-1), 57-1, [25-1]
9. Make Music For Me (50-1), 68-1, [30-1]
10. Paddy O Prado (20-1), 25-1, [12-1]
11. Devil May Care (10-1), 15-1, [10-1]
12. Conveyance (12-1), 28-1, [27-1]
13. Jackson Bend (15-1), 29-1, [23-1]
14. Mission Impazible (20-1), 24-1, [16-1]
15. Discreetly Mine (30-1), 59-1, [31-1]
16. Awesome Act (10-1), 8-1, [11-1]
17. Dublin (12-1), 26-1, [20-1]
18. Backtalk (50-1), 61-1, [23-1]
19. Homeboykris (50-1), 76-1 [27-1]
20. Sidney\'s Candy (5-1), 10-1, [9-1]


No rhyme or reason to any of this. One of the wise guy horses Paddy O\'Prado did not get bet on Friday, but was well backed on Saturday.

None of the 50-1 shots were touched on Friday last year, but were bet to 30-1 or lower on Saturday.

IMO, It don\'t mean much and the odds will move alot on many of these that got action (or didn\'t get action) today.

[jbelfior]

Sekrah:

Boy the mint juleps must have been selling like hotcakes today. Twice the Appeal @ 7-1?

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Lost Cause]

The power of Borel.  A Sunland Park Daily Double.

[PonyBologna]

I imagine part of the reason all of the longshots had their odds drop so dramatically is because people were betting with Mine That Bird fresh in their mind?

Speaking of that, I think too many people have Lookin At Lucky\'s poor trip from the 1-hole in their mind this year, causing them to abandon ship on AAA.  Hope that trend continues tomorrow. If I can get 15-1 on him, happy day.