The TG sheets are not a panacea. They don\'t tell you things like trainer intent, whether the saddle will slip, etc. I do believe they give you the very best numbers out there. We have all watched members of this forum, TGJB and TGAB make some amazing calls. So what happened at CD with Animal Kingdom and the Oaks?
TGJB and company can\'t produce an audiovisual seminar that is accurate to the moment the race is run. No, it has to be produced as rapidly in advance as it can reasonably be. They have the same type of deadlines that the guys over at DRF do. Their articles and picks have to be fully written and ready for the publisher days before without knowing the weather or the scratches or the post time odds. You, the user, have to make those final adjustments. That being said, here are the adjustments I made.
Master of Hounds - tossed him, even though this one scared me because until someone successfully makes that Dubai to CD move, I am not buying it. Looked terrible at the track before. I was using him before in tier 3 because you ignore that quality King Mambo / Sadler\'s Wells blood at your peril.
Animal Kingdom - took MOH\'s place in my tier three. Unfortunately, Nehro was also in my tier three and I didn\'t be any tier 3 with tier 3. If MMM finishes second, however, I score.
Midnight Interlude - moved up to tier 2 for me based on Baffert\'s hot hand. Previously, I had MI in tier 3 because of the lack of a 2 year old base.
Pants on Fire - moved down from tier 1 due to the unreasonable odds. You don\'t get to score very often without taking a chance. Loved POF at the 20-1 to 30-1 I thought I was going to get, not nearly as much at 7-1. Totally overlooked the Rosie factor as well as the MOH for lovers of dogs angles as well as the Derby Kitten for cat lovers angle. BTW, I thought Rosie rode this horse very well.
The TG sheets can\'t tell you racing luck. I wonder what the result would have been had it rained? AK won because he was ridden well by a Hall of Fame jockey, was well prepared by an excellent trainer in Graham Motion, had a good PP draw, and had good racing luck. AK earned the victory. Many people try to take a turfer and run them on the dirt. Very few accomplish it. AK and his connections did. It is a rare thing.
