Has Anyone Ever Won a KD Futures Bet?

[Beginner]

I\'m starting to look at it as little more than my own silly \"cover charge\" to start dreaming about the first Saturday in May at about the time I\'m ready to stop shoveling snow.  In the last 4 tries, I\'ve only had one horse even make the field and he had better odds on Derby Day.  Seems like a poor use of funds.  That said, I\'m certain I\'ll be paying the \"cover charge\" in 2012.  Anyone have any successes they would be willing to share?

[rayj54]

Yes.I had Giacomo at 50-1

[TGJB]

I\'ve cashed four of them that I can remember, three in the Derby and one in the BC. The trick is to make sure you are getting MUCH more price than you will if the horse runs in the race. If you are taking 20-1 or less before the last prep you better have some damn strong opinion on one horse-- if you are betting more than two horses and are not getting 30-1 or more on each you\'re wrong.

[Beginner]

The risk reward seems awfully low.  If there\'s a \"random\" horse that wins, he\'s usually part of the Field which pays diddly, and if there\'s a BB type out there, there\'s not enough \"juice\" in the futures pools to make it worth all the possibilities in the time decay leading up to the Derby:

Past Kentucky Derby Future Wager Payouts

Year   Derby Winner   Pool 1   Pool 2   Pool 3   Derby

2010   Super Saver   $43.20   $51.20   $73.00   $18.00

2009   Mine That Bird   $5.80*   $11.80*   $36.80*   $103.20

2007   Big Brown   $8.60*   $15.00*   $8.60   $6.80

2006   Street Sense   $22.80   $18.20   $15.40   $11.80

2005   Barbaro           $40.20   $32.20   $20.80   $14.20

2005   Giacomo           $52.00   $54.20   $103.60   $102.60

2004   Smarty Jones   $5.60*   $10.80*   $23.60   $10.20

2003   Funny Cide   $188.00   $120.80   $107.40   $27.60

2002   War Emblem   $7.60*   $16.00*   $24.00*   $43.00

2001   Monarchos   $36.60   $13.00   $15.80   $23.00

2000   Fusaichi Pegasus$27.80   $26.40   $8.00   $6.60

1999   Charismatic   $10.20*   $30.20*   $26.60*   $64.60

* part of the All Others entry

[Beginner]

Makes sense.  To be honest, I didn\'t realize there were futures bets on the BC (and I\'ve been to 4 of them live...)  Yikes!

[TGJB]

Not all future bets are through the pari-mutuel pools (I think Covello found Archarcharch at 250-1 in Vegas earlier this year). They briefly had BC parimutuels, no more.

The ones I hit were Sunny\'s Halo at 30-1 before the Arkansas Derby (he went off favored in the Derby), Funny Cide at 93-1 (first pool, only ticket I cashed on the Derby that year but good enough), War Emblem as part of the field in the second pool (7-1 I think, but I had something like 15 horses covered between the field and two other future bets), and the Mandella horse who won the Classic at SA (I had him @ 50-1, didn\'t use him in the race, forgot I even had the bet until after the race). Don\'t play them every year (didn\'t this year), there have been plenty of losers, but ahead pretty good overall.

[Perfect Drift]

$200 to win @20-1 on Fusaichi Pegasus through online book.  Nothing since then.

[phil23]

Jerry\'s correct...need that huge price.

[SteveB]

I remember betting $100 to win on Sunny\'s Halo at 8-1 in the Caliente Kentucky Derby Future Book in Tijuana in 1983. I woke up one morning before work and saw him cruise to his Arkansas Derby victory by four lengths over Caveat on a stakes hilight show. The next weekend I went to Tijuana and won a bet that turned $5 into around $100 and used the money to bet on Sunny\'s Halo. That may be the only time I have bet $100 on one horse to win in the Kentucky Derby.

I remember watching that Derby at a neighbor\'s house. It was Sunny\'s Halo ands Desert Wine as they came for home. McCarron was all over Desert Wine to keep up. Delahoussaye waited to use his stick until about the eighth pole and pulled away to win by two lengths over Desert Wine and Caveat.

I\'ve won a few other KD future bets including last year on Super Saver, but Sunny\'s Halo is the best memory.

Sunny\'s Halo had made 11 starts at the age of two and only two starts prior to the Derby at age three. He won the Rebel nicely as well as the Arkansas Derby.

It wasn\'t until 2007 that another horse won the Derby with only two prep races at three years old. Now Street Sense(2007), Big Brown(2008), Mine That Bird(2009), Super Saver(2010) and now Animal Kingdom(2011) have all done it the same with only two prep races. Using this info, I did put a bet on Animal Kingdom this year on Derby day. Five straight years now that the Derby winner had only two prep races.

Is this a trend or a coincidence?

[Labeebmile]

49-1 online on AK soon after his one work.

Spinning World in the 1997 Mile at 6-1 at Bally\'s about a month before the race. Not some huge score, but considering he was 2/1 in the gate, I\'ll take it.

[sixmoreouts]

The 93-1 on Funny Cide in 2003 was one of my better hits, but I am proudest of having bet Daylami in Vegas at 15-1 for the BC Turf.  I got this price just after Coolmore had \"announced\" that they didn\'t think they would send him over.  Horsemen clearly change their minds more often than they\'d care to admit. (See Comma to the Top who, at one point, was actually suspended from the wagering during one of this year\'s CDI pools.)

I do find these future bets profitable, and also very exciting.  Though having I Want Revenge at 75-1 was every bit as painful as Funny Cide was exhilarating.

One matter not to be overlooked is that simply being \"alive\" on Derby Day can save you a lot of money.  In 2005, I had Bellamy Road at 300-1 (bet in Vegas while he was still with M. Dickinson).  Under other circumstances, I might have bet Afleet Alex pretty hard.  But I knew that no wager could offer more value than what I already had in my pocket.

[Einstein66]

Steve B. I would say it\'s more of a trend but for a good reason. There are many more horses running in the Derby with only two prep races lately. After Sunny\'s Halo in 1983, there were only 22 Derby runners with two preps in the next 20 years. From 07-10 alone there were 21. This year, though, just four.