Hey Jerry

[Caradoc]

Are my Derby #\'s good enough to send you a resume?

AK 1.5
Nehro 2.25
MMM 2.75
Shak 4.75
Santiva 4.75
MoH 4.5
BS 3
DI 5.5

[TGJB]

Faster, for starters. We\'ll post them when we\'re done. I\'m giving a dead rail for saturday, not sure about Friday yet.

Jimbo, looking forward to the list of California horses that ran at CD over the weekend.

[miff]

Raggie Richie says AK got a 3.25 Rags(app neg -1/4 TG)

[TGJB]

I never said they get them ALL wrong. The betting is there are some big differences within the race due to ground, though. We had two different people do it, virtually identical.

[Ill-bred]

I thought the bad rail surfaced Friday. Maybe not a huge bias, but inside speed was definitely going against the grain of the track.

Rosario really let me down with his ride on Home Sweet Aspen in the Eight Belles. He used her out of the gate going 7f! For the right to duel from the rail...(?) That filly ran her eyeballs out.

The others that I tagged for running well vs. the bias were the IEAH and Pegram firsters, plus Shackleford.

[TGJB]

Boy. Ragozin has them posted, MAJOR differences in the relationships within the race. I would love to see the actual ground from their spotter.

[BitPlayer]

TGJB -

I recently ran across the following in an old post by Randy Moss on his DRF blog:

\"And in studying Trakus results, I\'ve come to the conclusion that each extra path around a turn actually costs closer to 1 1/2 lengths than the widely-accepted one path=one length standard.\"

Is that something you\'ve looked at?

[TGJB]

No. Not to sound like Clinton, but this takes us down the, err, path, of what a path is. We don\'t assume the inside horse is on the rail, or two horses are right next to each other. We look at the actual lane they are in. My guess is that accounts for the difference, though there are a whole lot of assumptions built into both his reasoning and mine (like that the Trakus footage is accurate).

[Caradoc]

Do the differences relate to Master of Hounds and Brilliant Speed?

[sighthound]

Just watching that overhead replay of Master of Hounds, he had a great race and closed like a freight train.

[albany]

Hopefully, Master of Hounds will stick around for the Belmont Stakes. This horse is bred for 12 furlongs. He\'s proven he can handle dirt, will be on the third race of his form cycle, he\'ll sit closer to the lead, will appreciate the sweeping turns and will grind out quarters. I also hope that Animal Kingdom is going for the Triple Crown when he enters the starting gate at Belmont. He\'ll take a ton of money (remember Funny Cide vs. Empire Maker). Forget the exotics,  anything above 3-1 would be a true overlay.

[jimbo66]

3-1 on Master of Hounds?  I\'ll give you 5-1, without seeing the field.

A plodder at best.  

Look at the results of the Derby.  You had a dead rail which created a flurry of wide closing horses.  It is no accident that Brilliant Speed, Santiva and Master of Hounds all appeared to run OK.  

Not sure about the winner yet, as he could be any kind, but I think you want to toss the horses that got nice wide figures and \"ran by\" some other horses stuck on the dead rail.

[P-Dub]

albany Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 Forget the exotics,  anything above
> 3-1 would be a true overlay.


Really?? If you think that a horse like this is a true overlay at 3/1, then you are one of the greatest handicappers of all time (assuming that you show a profit betting 3/1 shots).

For me to get excited about horses at these odds, the horse would have to lay over the field.  There is far too much randomness in this game to accept these kind of odds, unless you have a huge edge.

[BitPlayer]

I don\'t think he\'s sticking around.  I read that he\'s headed home, with an eye towards returning for the Breeders Cup.

[albany]

That\'s unfortunate. In retrospect, they should have given him another race in Europe, skipped the Derby and tried the Belmont.

Thanks for the update.