Animal Kingdom -- Quiet Times on the Farm

[Dana666]

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=2003299931964

Does he know or care he could  be a Triple Crown Winner?

[Donut]

if i recall correctly..in an interview motion stated that the 2 weeks off in between kd and ps that it would be an unfamiliar situation for him on how to train.obviously because he\'s never won the derby. but i can\'t believe that he\'s going w/o a work.

[Dana666]

Best thing for him--light jogging/galloping at Fair Hill--away from all the madness -- he\'ll come into Baltimore fresh as a daisy. Why does he need a work? He just ran a mile and quarter. I\'m really rooting for this guy; if he somehow gets through the Preakness, the mile and half is right up his alley as he\'s bred to run all day, and most of the surviving 3 years are severely distanced-challenged. This is a very exciting horse, and the first Derby winner I picked since Silver Charm! Always been a big fan of Motion, too--a real gentleman and a great horseman. I couldn\'t be happier. I\'d love him to be the first Triple Crown winner in all these years, but I think the Preakness will be the toughest leg for him.

[Donut]

agree...great horse. could be anything..like for real! i can see him winning the triple crown. he hits the ground nice,built like a brick sh** house and seems like he responds very well. would just like to see 1 soft work. rooting for him as well and bet him in derby. 2-1 or better in preakness might be worth a good play.1-2 in exactas hard.

[Dana666]

Yeah, I agree, but from a betting standpoint, he\'s hard to like in the Preakness, unless maybe you could get like 10-1 on the Triple Crown in Vegas or something. I can\'t blame the wise guys who will try to beat him in the Preakness, but even if I don\'t bet much in the race, I\'m rooting for him.

[mjellish]

I think AK is a nice colt, but I am not going to annoint him as being \"great\" yet.  To me, he relaxes well and is bred to run all day.  But he hasn\'t shown any athleticism.  He seems more like a lazy horse to me. He\'s going to run, run and run, and run.  But is he going to show a quick turn of foot to draw into contention, switch in for room, squeeze through and rally to win?  Is he going to look another horse in the eye and out gun him down the lane?  Is he going to overcome trouble?

I don\'t think so.  He runs more like a turf horse with sustained pace, he runs and runs and runs.  I\'ve watched all his races multiple, multiple times, and I am pretty sure I am right about this.  And because of that I think he can be beat on dirt, bounce or no bounce, by a more athletic colt who has the turn of foot to get a jump on the turn and the stamina to sustain it and kick home.  I think we will see that in the Preakness, and I am going to bet it that way.

[Donut]

I\'d rather go over him then hope for him to regress. He did show me some athleticism in the spiral. Check out the last turn 4 home.

[mjellish]

Watched it many times.  There\'s a difference in the chart times which appear in his running line vs what was shown during the race.  The half mile time reported during the race was 45.51.  It is recorded in the running line as 46.40.  Not sure why.  But anyway, after hand timing it myself the 46.4 is closer, but not quite right either.  After accounting for ground loss, AK runs approximately 25.60, 25.40, & 13.40 for his final 2 1/4\'s and 1/8th.  He gets a perfect trip up the rail on the backstretch, eases out, keeps on chugging and draws away from Decisive Moment in the stretch.  I don\'t see anything athletic there.  Not trying to take anything away from the horse.  He made a nice sustained run and was drawing away from the rest of the field at the end while galloping out strongly after the race, showing added distance probably wouldn\'t be a problem.  But I don\'t know about calling anything about this \"move\" athletic.  

He certainly can run long though.  If they skipped the Preakness and ran in the Belmont I would say that race is made for him.  But we have to let him take a shot at a triple crown, right.

As an aside, from what I hear AK looks great at Fair Hill and shows no sign that the derby effort took anything out of him.  No weight loss.  Gallops strong, finishes really well, seems to have great energy and hardly took a deep breath yesterday when it was all said and done.  Not exactly what I wanted to hear.

[Ill-bred]

If you watch the overhead of the Derby you will see him deftly split horses on the far turn.

I also thought the Spiral was an athletic showing, passing up the rail then shifting four wide with no loss of momentum.

[Donut]

Not trying to break balls here..but I think the spiral was very athletic. Can\'t forget how big of a horse he is. Mellish I am looking for a price here though. If flashpoint gets loose and somewhat easy..do u like him? He needs like 23. 47.112...think it\'s possible?

[miff]

\"But is he going to show a quick turn of foot\"

Mjellish,

You watched him from the 1/4 pole to the 1/16th pole and did not see a quick turn of foot at any time during that run?

Guess we all see things differently.

Mike

[Donut]

ak reacts very well and extremely fast to what is being asked of him...smart horse

[sekrah]

AK looked very athletic in his other races.  I don\'t know where this is coming from.

[moosepalm]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"But is he going to show a quick turn of foot\"
>
> Mjellish,
>
> You watched him from the 1/4 pole to the 1/16th
> pole and did not see a quick turn of foot at any
> time during that run?
>
> Guess we all see things differently.


Or one might say that many see things the way they want to see them.

[mjellish]

Maybe we are talking more semantics here than anything else.  When I say Athletic, I mean capable of multiple moves, shifting gears.  Looking at Lucky was Athletic.  Afleet Alex was Athletic.

And No, I don\'t see AK that way.  Not at all.  He\'s got one sustained move.  I\'m not saying he isn\'t talented.  I\'m saying if he gets any trouble, can he overcome it?  I haven\'t seen it and don\'t think I will.  He\'s a big, rangy runner with superior stamina.  But athletic, no.  That usually means wide trip.  And when you are the KY Derby winner you are the one with a bullseye on your back.

So to be clear, my contention is that if another horse with some stamina gets the jump on AK, or if AK gets blocked or has to go really wide, I think bounce or no bounce for AK, the other horse gets to the wire first.  AK runs like a turf horse.