For The Record

[phil23]

Mike

I did think of Rags\' crazy \"slow pace\" (or should we just call The Zenyatta) adjustment.  But I certainly don\'t think that wackiness occurs here.

[TreadHead]

Put a identical 5 HP lawnmower engines on a frame and have them go over a straight line for 100 yds.  One travels on fluffy loose dirt, the other on more packed down dirt with a better friction coefficient.  Do they both arrive at the same time?  They both put forth identical effort/work, why did they not arrive at the same time?

[Paolo]

JB
If you are going to quote Trakus, how about including the third place finisher in your discussion? Trakus has MMM running 52 feet less than AK. Does that get added to the 3 1/4 lengths that he was beaten by? If so,how does that translate to running only 1.5 points slower? Sorry for the novice questions.

[Lost Cause]

I don\'t think there is a correction made.  You are just notified via the X and then you do what you want with the number earned.  Somebody else please confirm..

[Caradoc]

If Trakus has MMM running 52 feet less than AK, it does not translate into running 1.5 points slower.  The approximate point differential for 3 lengths at 10f is 1.5 points.  Based on JB\'s post to me last week regarding MMM\'s ground in the Derby, there was no (or insignificant) relative ground loss between AK and MMM in that race.  TG had AK\'s ground at 4w/3.5w, rounded up to 4w4w on the sheet, while MMM\'s was 3w/4.5w, rounded up to 3w5w on the sheet. So, the bottom line is a 1.5 point difference.  If what you wrote is correct, then TG and/or Trakus has MMM\'s ground wrong.

[RICH]

correct

[miff]

No correction but you have noted something I discovered years ago.On dead rail days, why would horses in the outer firmer paths get extra credit(ground loss points) when that was a superior/firmer energy returning path?

The reason given is that fig makers cannot accurately quantify(in lengths) the bad rail vs the firmer outer path/s.Me thinks it better to give a reduced \"value\" to ground losers when the rail is dead.

When the rail is dead, and two horses going around the track in the one and two path and finish in a dead heat,the horse in the 2 path gets the faster figure. Thats plain wrong and science would conclude that.It\'s one of the few occasions when you can pickle the \"geometry\"


Mike

[Lost Cause]

Maybe an X should be shown for every horse coming out of a dead rail race and then we should look to see where the horse was placed in the race through the performance line in the upper left or maybe have a different type of indicator for a horse that ran off the dead rail in a race.  Interesting point Miff.  

TG is there a way for us to find out if a horse ran in a \"dead rail\" race if he did not run on the rail?

[miff]

Lost,

In the absence measurable path energy return, it\'s best to just look for horses who were disadvantaged being towards the inside on dead rail days.If you do not know,it\'s one of the stronger angles I have noted in the game.

Also,was is only the one path? or also the 2-3 paths.There are days when I\'m told the jocks call the inside dead, what then, how many paths??

Anyway, the point is moot, there is no such thing as a dead rail according to my  Kool Aid drinking friends over Rags.

Mike

[TGJB]

Phil-- to be clear, the mystery variable is not ours.

[TGJB]

The ground we used for for MMM (3,45) is definitely right. Either Trakus is wrong or there is significant ground loss from zigging in and out on the straightaways, which is unlikely.

I\'ve been told that because of others broadcasting on Derby day there wa intereference and Trakus had some problems getting their data, don\'t know how this affected readings.

[Caradoc]

Are you saying that Trakus had the ground correct for AK, correct for Nehro, but for some reason way off for MMM?

[TGJB]

Miff-- this is about the fourth time I\'ve gone through this. We DO NOT give extra credit to outside horses when there is a dead rail.

When we see a dead rail, we mark the horses that ran on it (most of whom ran terrible), AND DO NOT USE THEM IN MAKING FIGURES FOR THE DAY. This means we are only using the other horses, compared to each other, not to the rail horses. In effect, if you want to look at it that way, the whole day slides in a path-- horses in the 4 path are only 2 paths outside the most inside horses we use.

I have only seen one place where it actually looks like sometimes the outside paths are actually better than the middle paths (separate issue than dead rail). It may happen at Turfway sometimes, and in recent years I have tried to be more conservative in giving out good figures there because of that.

[TGJB]

No. I\'m saying what I said-- those are the readings and information I\'ve got so far. I\'ve also now been told there are some other (different) readings for the race out there, which show Nehro wider than AK, but not by as much. In general we don\'t use this stuff, so I\'m figuring things out as I go along.

[miff]

JB,

So in my example, 2 horses around the track at 5 f, one path and two path, dead heating, they get the same #. The outside path runner does NOT get a better fig by a point, thats news.

Mike