Today's NY Post

[miff]

Don\'t have to, it\'s the same all the time. Whether AK wins or runs last in the Preakness has zero to do with spacing or new tops. There are many other reasons for horses losing(which they do most of the time) strictly related to racing stuff, not theory.

Mike

[Wrongly]

Miff

Since 1986 there\'s only been 3 horses that won the Preakness and didn\'t run in the Derby.  Rachel also won the Oaks, so that means there\'s only been two horses (Bernardini and Red Bullet) that won the Preakness and had more then a two week turn around. 18 of the past 25 winners have been 1st or 2nd choice and 31 of those 50 horses finished ITM.  

Chalk on Top, I\'m looking for who\'s going to run 2nd or 3rd.  Need to see the numbers but I\'m looking at Dance City, King Congie and Mr. Commons.

[miff]

Lost,

Think it\'s obviously a conditioning thing.Last thing I would want is a fresh horse, with no route bottom, going farther than he ever raced with 126 in a crowded field.


Mike

[SJU5]

\"They\'ve turned the Kentucky Derby into a guessing game,\" Brown fumed. \"The introduction of synthetic tracks has created mass confusion among handicappers. In the Derby, you\'re left to guess whether a horse can handle dirt after running on synthetics.

\"This is an absurd situation to create for people who bet the game seriously. It\'s tough enough to beat it with good information and rational thinking, but now you have situations where it turns a race into pure guesswork.\"

Jerry-your comment of not knowing how well AK would HANDLE dirt was certainly answered by our friend Steve Byk and Mike Welsh and Steve Haskin and others on his morning ATR show each morning live from CD. EVERY morning, all the live guests all commented on not only how great AK worked over the CD strip, but how he STOOD OUT in morning works in the CD dirt...so how are we guessing? Not that I\'m saying how well he might RACE over CD, but he sure did great each morning. To the many TG users who listened to Steve\'s show, and others who use other products...AK was a definite play IMO. We did get good and useful information on his and others like or dislike of dirt, especially the querky CD dirt surface. People all week have been calling Steve\'s show for more info this week regarding workouts, especially on the new shooters who are grass/synthetic runners but as of today, none have worked out over it because of their desire to arrive later in the week prior to race day.

Thanks again for all your hard work and expertise and I look forward to seeing you again this summer at Carolina BBQ.

[drbillym]

The fact that AK worked well on dirt was no sure indication that he would race well on dirt.  Many horses that go on dirt the first time can work 4 or 5 furlongs fine, but fall apart after 6 or 8 furlongs.  And just doing a workout does not tell how they will do when clumps of dirt get kicked in their face.  Now I was a backer of AK in the Derby, and I accept the fact that the Derby is complicated.  On all these posts, I see very little about the trainer factor.  I had Giacomo simply because I had followed Shirreffs and Moss for years, just as I have followed Team Valor and Motion for years.  Quality owners and trainers need to get extra consideration in the Classic races.  Admittedly,lots of luck involved with Giacomo, but he was well prepared by a top notch outfit, just like AK.

[Perfect Drift]

I would love to go back through the Mike Welsch DRF Derby clocker reports from years past and see how many of the horses who \"loved\" the track during workouts ran like garbage.  My guess is a high percentage.  There was no way at all to truly know how AK would handle dirt kickback, how he would handle the track while accelerating, etc.  He won, rather easily, and defied the logic of using speed figures - for this one rce.  It\'s not the first time this has happened and it wont be the last, it\'s just magnified 10000x because it\'s the Derby.

As folks who look for mega-value, we should all want him to win the Preakness, so that he\'s a 1-5 underlay in the Belmont and we can wait for another flop, a la Big Brown, Smarty, War Emblem, et al.  



SJU5 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Jerry-your comment of not knowing how well AK
> would HANDLE dirt was certainly answered by our
> friend Steve Byk and Mike Welsh and Steve Haskin
> and others on his morning ATR show each morning
> live from CD. EVERY morning, all the live guests
> all commented on not only how great AK worked over
> the CD strip, but how he STOOD OUT in morning
> works in the CD dirt...so how are we guessing? Not
> that I\'m saying how well he might RACE over CD,
> but he sure did great each morning. To the many TG
> users who listened to Steve\'s show, and others who
> use other products...AK was a definite play IMO.
> We did get good and useful information on his and
> others like or dislike of dirt, especially the
> querky CD dirt surface. People all week have been
> calling Steve\'s show for more info this week
> regarding workouts, especially on the new shooters
> who are grass/synthetic runners but as of today,
> none have worked out over it because of their
> desire to arrive later in the week prior to race
> day.

[SJU5]

I agree, it was not a SURE indication, but it sure beats seeing him spin his wheels and not like the CD dirt! How many of us would drop any scratch on a colt that trained like crap the week leading up to the Derby and had negative trackside reports each AM? It was a positive indication...not a guarantee that he would race well like I stated. And we won\'t know how many times AK trained on the dirt surface at the \"farm\" getting dirt thrown down his face either. BUT I highly doubt CD was the first time AK ran on dirt surfaces with all the amenities at the farm and with an outstanding trainer in Motion!!

[Donut]

I like your forum better than your horse picks/race breakdown. There\'s a gd chance ak could gallop on saturday. Ny post discretting the derby winner who rolled? Crazy move.! I\'m tryin to beat ak..not hope for him to bouncey bounce 3-4 pts..wrong angle sir:)

[FrankD.]

Random vs Chaos ?

Plastic,

No pun intended but plastic surfaces have created chaos in the game. I quite simply do not play them except for a few of the major stakes. They contradict everything I\'ve learned in 38 years of watching races, pace scenarios and by the wagering figures across the land I\'m not alone.

However we all exercises a degree of random on a daily basis, be it sheet interpolation, how we view a pace scenario or a bias ? There is no sure thing or total given in our world and we\'ve all seen many mathematical geniuses go broke !

I can accept and deal with random when I\'m getting 500 /1, 1000/1 or more on a vertical or horizontal wager. That\'s why we have to applaud MJ\'s plunge and the structure of his derby ticket. The same reason when jimbo, richiebee or myself post another one of our losing pick 4 tickets on big days we spreading 3-6 deep on some legs taking into account the randomness of several most likely winners.

Random with a bit of edge and proper odds is not a bad thing. Complete chaos in a 20 horse field on an non level playing field is roulette ?

Good luck,

Frank D.

[TGJB]

Ron-- the problem is, even if you KNEW he would like dirt (and Doc is right, lots of horses work just fine over surfaces they don\'t handle as well in a race), you still had to guess how fast he would be on it. Did \"like\" or even \"love\" mean pair his last, run a 2 point new top, or almost 4? To do the last he had to be able to run a figure only a tiny percentage of 3yos can run-- and a 2 point new top wouldn\'t have done it.

[richiebee]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Random vs Chaos ?
>
> Plastic,
>
> No pun intended but plastic surfaces have created
> chaos in the game. I quite simply do not play them
> except for a few of the major stakes. They
> contradict everything I\'ve learned in 38 years of
> watching races, pace scenarios and by the wagering
> figures across the land I\'m not alone.
>
> However we all exercises a degree of random on a
> daily basis, be it sheet interpolation, how we
> view a pace scenario or a bias ? There is no sure
> thing or total given in our world and we\'ve all
> seen many mathematical geniuses go broke !
>
> I can accept and deal with random when I\'m getting
> 500 /1, 1000/1 or more on a vertical or horizontal
> wager. That\'s why we have to applaud MJ\'s plunge
> and the structure of his derby ticket. The same
> reason when jimbo, richiebee or myself post
> another one of our losing pick 4 tickets on big
> days we spreading 3-6 deep on some legs taking
> into account the randomness of several most likely
> winners.
>
  Frank: Actually I think going 3-6 deep in races is a function of 2 things:
  (a) My fear of commitment and (b) the advent of the $.50 wager. I am fairly
  certain in Saturday\'s P-4 which ends with the Preakness I will NOT be com-
  mitting to Shared Account carrying 125 pounds.

> Random with a bit of edge and proper odds is not a
> bad thing. Complete chaos in a 20 horse field on
> an non level playing field is roulette ?

  I was alive with seven (7) in P4s, P3s and Oaks/Derby doubles two weeks ago.
  At no point did I think that any of the 7 had a chance of winning. I am begin-
  ning to think that betting a 20 runner field where most of the runners are  
  nowhere near ready to run 10 furlongs is an overrated betting opportunity.
>
> Good luck,
>
> Frank D.