I am small time player who loves the game and who really values the resources that this site provides. Most of you have more handicapping ability in your pinky than I have all together but I grew up going to the saratoga race course every day and look forward to this every year. So here is my opinion on the race:
This is a great opportunity to play against AK based on all the variables that we all know. And I will be taking a stand against AK based on those variables,however, I am not confident that this horse will bounce back to a 3 or 4. I feel that barring anything unusual, he is the most likely winner and most likely to pair the 0. Part of me hopes he does pair the 0 and wins by 2-3 lengths so I can load up against him come belmont day. But... I will be playing against him tomorrow just in case.
MMM will be my key. I had made up my mind on this the week after the derby seeing his TG # and hearing that he was full of himself and focused in his works. I don\'t have a ton of confidence that the jock will work out the trip but this horse tries every time and doesn\'t have to move back of the derby effort.He looks like the most likely to run a winning number.
DC... I liked this horse more before I herd he was knocked out from his last effort. The other negative is seeing him pair up and jump forward 3 points. I feel that the best to expect now is a pair up. will still be using underneath.
Sway away- tough read for me based on the information that this horse is training so well. His sheet is troubling to me. I am seeing a pattern of issues that leave me feeling this horse has the ability but not the head to put it together in a big race. He worries me, looks dangerous if he can put it together, but I feel that he will have the same trouble in a big field. underneath.
Shak- toss. will take my chances that the derby took just enough punch out of him.
Dialed in- I am cautious because of zito but I didn\'t like him in the derby and don\'t like him off short rest. toss
MI- reluctant toss. hoping he runs somewhere between his top and his derby fig
Flashpoint - Don\'t think he wants the distance but will use underneath. Lightly raced, big fig to run back to
Congie- here we go again with the surface change. Horse has never moved back in six starts, had two months off going into the bluegrass and is now on his second race of a cycle. Looks eligible for a forward move to me. Have to use underneath at a big price
NA-toss
Astrology- good looking line coming in, looks eligible for a forward move. underneath
Mr. Commons - looks like he could be one of those horses that strings together 3 pairs and then surges ahead 4 points. Based on that I am using underneath
Key - MMM
Tier 1 - Astrology , Sway away , Flashpoint
Tier 2 - Dance city, King Congie, Mr. Commons
