Trakus and the Derby

[Paolo]

I have access to Trakus data and the amount of feet covered by the field is an object lesson on why it paid to be on the outside at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Here are the 19 horses in post-position order and the distance they ran in feet:

Archarcharch -- 6752
Brilliant Speed -- 6795
Twice the Appeal -- 6733
Stay Thirsty -- 6727
Decisive Moment -- 6715
Comma to the Top -- 6813
Pants on Fire -- 6784
Dialed In -- 6771
Derby Kitten -- 6748
Twinspired -- 6712
Master of Hounds -- 6749
Santiva -- 6759
Mucho Macho Man -- 6774
Shackleford -- 6770
Midnight Interlude -- 6808
Animal Kingdom -- 6857
Soldat -- 6831
Nehro -- 6861
Watch Me Go -- 6848

I made a mistake yesterday in saying MMM ran 52 feet less than AK. Mr Powell says it is more like 83 feet. IF true, wouldn\'t that make MMM much less appealing on his sheet? I am not quite convinced that Trakus was functioning 100% correctly since the chiclets were quite shaky on the real-time video all day, but it could make for an interesting discussion. If taken at face value, how would I revise the figs for the 5 horses that ran in the Derby... perhaps assuming that AK still ran his zero?

[TGJB]

I talked to those guys today and I pointed out that they had some problems with some of the relationships in the race. They basically said they had just started doing it at CD and hadn\'t worked out all the kinks yet. The MMM thing is one of the things I pointed out-- both 52 and 83 are way, way off.

Evidently the one they feel is dead on is Woodbine.

[TGJB]

And by the way, if you want to get a quick and definitive example of how wrong that stuff is, look at Comma vs. Decisive-- they have Comma running 98 feet further. Comma was one path right outside D on the first turn, two out at most second turn.

[Ill-bred]

The chicklets were very erratic Derby weekend.

I ran into a Trackus guy in the elevator at Churchill the following week and asked him about it. He first denied there was a problem, then said, \"Oh, there was a loose cord. We fixed it.\"

The data from Derby weekend is questionable.

[Paolo]

Great example with Comma and DM. There certainly was a problem with the data.

BTW, I calculated that MMM would have received a 5.5 and Shack would have gotten a 6 if one chose to believe the Trakus data and kept AK at his -.25

Also, glad to see the derogatory post about Powell quickly deleted.