Who knows Jerry. Tough to say. Maybe SHAK got the 1 3/16ths because the PIM track was kind to speed. Maybe he still spits out the bit in the Derby because 1 1/4 is too far. Maybe the track on Derby day just played a lot like a turf course. I dunno.
I do know this. If SHAK actually wins the Derby and AK takes second, with Neh 3rd and MMM 4th I take down over $1,000,000. And that is no B.S. All things considered, I would have been quite happy if he just could have held for 3rd and I take down half that amount. But... that\'s the game.
Makes for an interesting Belmont though. If SHAK goes he is a gamer, but I think 1 1/2 is too far for him. My observation of him is that he runs better when he has another horse to look in the eye. He responds well to a challenge. But if someone is really moving from behind him they are probably going to pass him before he has a chance to respond. Watch the way he takes off again in the FL Derby when he sees DI coming, but DI had too much momemtum and passed him anyway although it was a slow final 1/4 mile overall.
If AK goes in the Belmont then I think he would still be a bet against for me, maybe even a toss. He\'s now got 2 big efforts on dirt and the Belmont would be his 3rd in 5 weeks. And I still am going to stand by statement that he is not athletic and can be beat on dirt by a horse with a turn of foot or one who gets the jump on him and has the stamina to keep going down the lane.
I see Nehro as a horse that likes to take second and won\'t win. I intend to play him that way until he proves otherwise. Maybe a guy should just key him in 2nd now.
So I think you can make an argument against all 3 of what probably turns out to be the top 3 betting choices. Have to see the sheets on some of the newcomers.
Overall I usually don\'t mind losing, but for some reason this has been a very frustrating Triple Crown sequence for me. I just feel as if I somehow let a couple big ones get by. We have a terrible Derby favorite and great betting race, but I just miss. Then I get to watch SHAK come back at 12-1 and win the Preakness and although he was a Key horse for me in the Derby somehow he\'s a toss on all my tickets in Maryland, while my key horse Sway Away completely washes out before the race or whatever but in any case he doesn\'t show up AT ALL. And to top that all off, I get a voice mail within minutes of the Preakness from a buddy who had chipped in on my Derby tickets. We hadn\'t talked leading up to the Preakness as I went solo. But I guess he went out to the local strip here expecting to find me there, didn\'t see me, tried to call and I didn\'t answer (was at the lake with phone OFF). So not knowing what else to do, he bet SHAK to win and boxed him with AK blind because he knew how much I liked both those horses in the Derby and he heard me talking about how the dead rail on Derby day probably got me beat. So my buddy figures SHAK will probably turn the tables on AK now and cleans up simply by listening to the things I said two weeks ago. But I get stugots again because I evidentally don\'t do such a good job of listening to myself.
