The Difference

[TGJB]

You want to know the difference between the guys who post here and on Ragozin\'s site? They posted their Preakness figures today. Now, those guys have seen the whole sheets for the horses going into the race, as have I. And if I posted figures that were clearly, obviously (and I do mean obviously) 2 points slow BASED ON MY OWN DATA, which my customers had, for a TC race, there would be a riot over here-- over and under is 75 posts ripping me apart.

Not a peep over there. David Patent, a hint of intellectual honesty?

[miff]

\"for a TC race, there would be a riot over here\"


JB,

Why is it relevant if it\'s a TC crown race or a maiden claimer, slow is slow.

So RAGS has Shack slow(like a TG 3.5) with a small forward move from the Derby.

Beyer has Shack equal to TG neg -1.25(absurd). I\'d think you are in the TG 1 range.

Would love to hear you and Beyer explain your figs in light of the painfully slow final time considering track speed Sat.Again,slow is slow, don\'t care what any previous performance fig was for the participants and whether it\'s Gr 1 or otherwise.Historically a woefully slow Preakness, given the speed of the track.

Guess it\'s one of those cases when Projection Voodoo rears it\'s head which I have noticed happening in Graded dirt stakes at longer distances.


Mike

[TGJB]

Yep, it\'s that old black magic.

I actually added to that race compared to every other route on the card (had the track speeding up), without that it would have been a couple of points faster. Take a look at the older horse stake two races earlier, and keep in mind the 3yos were carrying 126.

[P-Dub]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"for a TC race, there would be a riot over here\"
>
>
> JB,
>
> Why is it relevant if it\'s a TC crown race or a
> maiden claimer, slow is slow.
>
 
>
> Mike


Mike,

Lots more people read the data for a big race, so more people would be upset. But your point is taken.  A better question....

Why do people buy the appropriately named \"Rags\"??

[TGJB]

Miff-- and by the way, you\'re proving my point about the difference in people who use the different types of data.

Again, there is ZERO doubt Ragozin got it wrong. And this has nothing to do with our data or how I did the day and the race. Anybody who has their sheets for the race should write in the Preakness figures on them, and then see what it looks like if you take off two points. They have an entire field of stake level 3yos averaging many points off their tops, with in fact only the winner (who they gave a slight new top) even getting within a point of his previous top. No way, no how.

What this has to do with is their fundamentalist, dogmatic belief that the numbers produced by a certain process are correct, whether they make sense or not.

David Patent-- how are those data points doing?

[miff]

Track speeding up?Your stopwatch may be broken.The 4th race for older mares was run in 1 42.4 whereas the 10th race stake(hours later) was run in 143.3 same weight for both winners, mares vs colts.Beyer has them the same (Beyer100) meaning the track got SLOWER later,in their view and mine.


Unimaginable how you arrived at that.


Mike

[TGJB]

I do have a good imagination. But I also looked at the fractions-- 1:10 3/5 for the mares, 1:13 1/5 for the colts. Didn\'t adjust the race enough to call it    \"s. pace\", but it was enough to make the correction. You want me to have the colt race collapse completely, or Pletcher\'s filly to run more than the 4 point new top she already got?

[moosepalm]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 And if I posted figures
> that were clearly, obviously (and I do mean
> obviously) 2 points slow BASED ON MY OWN DATA,
> which my customers had, for a TC race, there would
> be a riot over here-- over and under is 75 posts
> ripping me apart.


Not from me.  My sense of incredulity topped out with Larry David not being funny.

[martoon]

Jerry .. I\'ve never been a Rags customer and have only been in the game about 5 years so i may be missing a lot of history here... But it seems to me that a big percentage your posts are about the Rags and how ffe\'d up they are.  As one of your customers I can tell you i don\'t care.  I\'m kind of getting tired of hearing about them on this board.  I\'d rather hear your post race analysis handicapping wise of the Derby and Preakness and what went wrong and what went right from the TG persepective betting the race.  As someone who buys some analysis and specials for these these big events, I\'m trying to figure out how to best use your products, and get your takes on your picks win or lose.

[plasticman]

I would say if anything the track got slower as the water dried out of the track. Their first race was at 2am (or, 10:30) so you have to figure the track wasnt nearly as \'dry\' as it was later in the day.

[TGJB]

Check out Changing Track Speeds in the Archive section.

[TGJB]

Martoon-- Ragozin still has some customers, I want them. A \"big percentage\"? No, maybe 2%, tops. But the only times of year where I see their stuff are the TC and BC, and since that\'s the time everyone is focusing on the same horses, that\'s when I bring things to people\'s attention.

As for the other stuff, that\'s why we have a ROTW. Post race analysis is basically useless.

[TGJB]

CH-- \"I assume you believe the track speed remained constant\".

WRONG. They believe the track speed MUST reman constant. It\'s a rule. In other words, they come up with an average track speed for the day, and apply it to all races.

In this case, the card started at 10:45 A.M. and ended at 7:00. Temperature changes, watering (or not), wind (or not), sun (or not), who cares. It\'s a rule.

Like I said, fundamentalists. Calling Harold Camping...