Nehro

[TGJB]

Alan and I already bet, I say AK will be favored.

[jimbo66]

Just curious.  Who did TGAB take?  I hope Nehro, for his sake.  There is zero shot that Shackleford goes off favored...

[jbelfior]

Jimbo:

I think Ritvo is crazy running MMM again. Doubtful considering what he has gone through with catching up for the Derby and breeding that does not suggest finishing well at a 1 1/2.

I am probably in the minority in believing that Nehro\'s punch is compromised past 1 1/8 .  I don\'t agree that the 3 favorites will dominate this. Shackleford would shock me for the very reason you mention. AK is usable, but beatable.

 I\'m looking elsewhere.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

I hear you about the favorites Joe B., and I also hear you about Mucho.  I want to hear about and/or read anything I can about how he looks before the Belmont.

I like the Eye-talian horse a bit.  Santino.  Or is it Santiva......

[alm]

Listen guys, if Motion enters his horse, his horse wins...simple.  This man doesn\'t enter this one if a hair is out of place.

[TGJB]

He took \"not AK\".

[big18741]

Two things:


Nehro was about to get run down by MMM nearing the wire in the Derby.

Every year in the Belmont some horse or horses run new tops of a couple points or more.

2011 ??
2010 Drossel
2009 Summer Bird
2008 Da Tara
2007 Rags
2006 Oh So Awesome(not good enough to hit the board)
2005 Andromeda\'s/Nolans Cat
2004 Birdstone/Royal Assault
2003 TMW
2002 Sarava/MDO
2001 PGiven/APVAL
2000 Commendable

[jbelfior]

Not looking there either. Like Sonny in the toll booth scene, too many holes.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGAB]

Jimbo, I took Nehro and in the words of Andy Beyer, he\'s a \"mortal lock\" to be favored. So get the bet down. And that\'s notwithstanding covelj70 on the TG (world is next) pulpit with this bloody herd animal nonsense.

[albany]

I agree that there are definitely horses who \"like\" to run second. I\'m not sure \"like\" is the right word since it is impossible to devine what a horse may prefer. All that we know is that certain horses, for whatever reason, tend to run second. As an example, the oldtimers on this Board may remember Jacques Who (he ran about 20 consecutive seconds in New York, if memory serves).

Although I have a different approach, there is nothing wrong with keying a horse in a position other than the top spot. In playing a horse in only the win slot, you are narrowing an exotic ticket by choosing a  particular finishing position for your horse. While a player may take pride in selecting the winner, no style points will be awarded at the mutual window. Moreover, there may be times when a horse has a greater chance to hit a given underneath position than any other horse has to win. Based upon his prior races, you suggest that Nehro could be keyed in the second hole and you could very well be right.

As always, good luck.

Albany

[jimbo66]

TGAB,

Just YOU saying Nehro would be favored made me think I might be wrong, but now we add a second \"Mush\", Andy Beyer, and I am definitely wrong.

As for Covello and the herd methodology.  I must have missed something in the program.  They didn\'t list the \"equipment change\" for Covelj.  Apparently he is \"Kool-Aid - off\" the last few days.  First the figures don\'t matter and now the herd mentality....

[TGJB]

One of you guys see if you can find the pp\'s of a horse called Connecting Terms I used to be involved with. At three he \"liked\" to run second, after that he \"liked\" to win. Ended up being used as a rabbit for Victory Gallop, over my objections.

[Wrongly]

Jimbo

Kool-Aid Off equipment change, that was good!

[covelj70]

I am glad that I am getting a bit roughed up by Alan and Jimbo here.

It\'s been a run of about 6 months where everyone on the board has been incredibly kind and gracious with awesome comments toward me

This is more like it!

That said, I will be expecting a public apology on the board from Alan when Nehro runs second in the Belmont

[TGAB]

Jim is being provocative and that\'s a good thing. It gets all of us talking. Of course, the figures matter. They put us in the ballpark. I think what Jim (pardon me for inferring) is really dwelling on is the fine tuning. The graphs, the ability projections for this distance are more indistinct, blurry because of the shorter-distance focus of the figures earned. Pedigree, pace, timing and other factors all may assume more prevalent roles, because we\'re not quite as confident that the demonstrated ability so far represents the more than less definitive talent at 12 furlongs. I agree.    

I often think 3rd place is more easy to predict than 1st or 2nd. The 2 in the 0-2-X often translates to a 3rd place finish. The horse is healthy but a bit enervated from the prior top effort. Tough to bet though. But look for horses off good patterns and tops efforts and see how they do. I bet you\'ll find that often they run 3rd or maybe 4th.

Jim as far the double whammy I don\'t buy it. And you don\'t either. It\'s your intuition as it was mine. And I think we\'re right.