The Belmont by the sheets

[covelj70]

The more I look at the Belmont, the less I understand why so many here keep saying its a bad race to play.

Everyone crushed me for suggesting that the sheets aren\'t the most valuable tool for this one particular race (heaven forbid) so let\'s use a more classic analysis on the race, which by the way, leads to the same conclusion that I came to last week when I said that I was simply going to look for a fresh horse that is bred for the distance.  I define \"fresh\" as not having run in both the derby and the preakness.

So, with this in mind, first of all, I think you can throw 3 of the top 4 horses out BOTH because of patterns and race spacing (or lack there of).

I believe a strong case can be made that Animal Kingdom is looking at an \"X\" race.  He has the classic 0-2-x pattern with the Derby being his big jump up, then a slight regression in the Preakness and then a bigger move backward coming, especially given the 3rd race in 5 weeks.  I played him in the Preakness but I don\'t like him at all in this race.

Shackleford is coming off a new top and also running his 3rd race in 5 weeks.  He is also not bred to get this distance (huge difference in a 1 3/16ths and 1 1/2 in my view).  He also has a bit of an alternating pattern going into this.  The \"bad\" races are getting less bad each time but this potential alternating pattern is another reason to play against him

Mucho Macho Man reacted to the big effort as a 2 year old and the big Derby effort seemingly has the same impact given the BI in the lane in the Derby and the big bounce in the Preakness.  He will take money with Ramon taking the mount but I can\'t see a good reason to argue that he gets back to his top on the sheets.  I don\'t want to hear anymore about him continually losing his shoes as an excuse.  First of all, it likely means he has bad feet as they have had special shoes on him.  That\'s likely why he has reacted to the big efforts.  Second of all, Blind Luck lost her shoe at the break (when she fell down) on Oaks Day.  Really good horses overcome that kind of stuff and this one doesn\'t.  I have no problem leaving him out of everything.

Nehro has to be used.  He\'s fast, fresh, and bred for the distance.  I made my point last week about him finishing 2nd alot so I will play him more heavily to finish 2nd but given I hate 3 out of the other top 4 choices, I can play him in both top spots and not have the ticket get out of control.

That leaves us with 4 other real contendes to pair with Nehro, all of whom will be some kind of price.  Master of Hounds, Brilliant Speed, Santiva and Stay Thirsty.  I know there are a few others running so I reserve the right to add them if they look ok when we see the final draw on Wed.

Of these 4 though, I will take a stand against MoH and Brilliant Speed.  Churchill is very favorable to horses with turf action and Belmont isn\'t.  Brilliant Speed in particular is coming off a big new top onto a surface that I don\'t expect him to like as much as Churchill.  MAster of Hounds has the same surface issue but has also shipped all over the place in a short period of time and has never run that fast anyway so I will leave him out.

That leaves me with Nehro, Stay Thristy and Santiva.  Both ST and Santiva have back figures to run to that put them in the picture and they are both fresh and bred for the distance (Stay Thirsty the best of all).  Stay Thirsty is particularly insteresting because he gets Javier in the irons.

So, pending the draw and any late entrants or defections, I will go with a 3 horse box of Nehro, Stay Thirsty and Santiva and then key Nehro in first and second in a ticket which throws out the other 3 favorites but includes most of the rest of the field.

[jbelfior]

Hi Cove:

How do you come to the conclusion that Nehro is bred to get the distance? With a DI of 4.33 I would suggest not betting the rent money.

I was also of the opinion that the Belmont was not a good betting race until Neil Howard decided to enter Prime Cut. Now I\'m interested.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[phil23]

Joe B,

What is it about Prime Cut that interests you?  He did not move forward in the PP, he\'s not fast now, his 2yo top was slow, and even if you give him his 3.50 pts of development to say a 4.00 or so, he\'s still not close.  Plus he certainly is not bred for the distance (daddy worse at longer, Mommy a sprinter).  

Good timing coming in?  Howard?  

Just curious.  Not trying to beat up the pick (although I suppose I just did).

[big18741]

Brilliant Speed might take to Belmont.He\'s never been a fast works horse but he went quick on May 23rd.

Breezed in 1:00.11 the same day Rodman went 1:00.23 handily prepping for the Met.

Caixa Eletronica went handily in company with Christmas for Liam in 59.23 that day as well getting ready for the Met.

Albertrani in fact thought he went too quick and wanted to slow him down the next time he worked.

In general I like your approach.Belmont is a race for fresh horses and ones that might improve with added yardage.Playing this one with a 0 in mind for the winner.Nehro should be around it if he handles those extra furlongs.One or two horses can jump up in this race as well.Stay Thirsty won\'t pick his feet up if down on the inside in traffic.I like him a little if he draws away from the rail and he\'s trained well over the surface.

I\'ll substitute Brilliant Speed for Santiva.Think he\'s better bred on the bottom,he\'s training regularly over the strip, and if you match them up physically there isn\'t much to Santiva-he\'s a small colt.Big new top for BS no bigger than that of Nehro in the Derby and Albertrani can get these late blooming types.

Six of the last eleven Belmont winners have gone off double digit odds and jumped up.With that in mind I\'ll be keying Brilliant Speed on top with Nehro underneath him on my main tickets.Stay Thirsty a wildcard and even Isn\'t He Perfect should like 12 furlongs.Think he could improve and threaten the bottom of a ticket.

[covelj70]

Hey Joe B.

I am absolutely not trying to be a jerk or anything when I say this but I don\'t know or care about dosage index.  

when I look at whether a horse can get a mile and a half, I look back into the bottom side of the the horses pedigree.

His first dam sire won the PA Derby and was 2nd in the Queensplate, his 2nd dam sire won the Dwyer and his third dam sire, the great Damascus, won everything including the Remsen, Belmont, Preakness, etc.

With those stamina influences on the bottom side of his pedigree, I am not too worried about what his doasge index is.

[miff]

Cov,

Congrats,Nice turf win. A great spot, those starter allowances, for that horse.Lobby with PJ Campo to write a few at the SPA.

On the Belmont,Santiva is the semi wise guy horse. One phony wide fig,hanging very late at 1 1/16th mile his total license.Santiva, a small horse to boot, to take to Big Sandy? tough for me to see.

I\'ll use MMM,worked like a tiger yesterday at Belmont, the skinny, tall long gaited grinder.True about the shoe thing but some are adversely affected, gave him a half mulligan for the lost shoe,last had zero to do with bouncing off top imo.Like Rajiv, but Ramon a plus.

AK looks as well as ever to those who saw him on Sunday,more than one horseman that saw him did not see any negatives, physically. Whats inside AK tough to know after tough Preakness race,derby was not. 0 2 X is a nice fairy tale that I used to read to my girls 20+ years ago.

Agree,Nehro cannot be dismissed,too consistent,flashed early in Derby, a solid indicator of improved power/development.Winning trainer to boot.

Brilliant Speed worked great a three occasions over the Belmont strip and will have one of the most dangerous jockeys in the world on his back Sat.Ugly derby trip has this one on my ticket. Never heard that CD dirt kind to turf action horses.Do you mean Barbaro and AK, they both ran well on other dirt tracks.

MOH a slow rat to date.May take euro-dollars after flashing mini late run in derby after crawling for this first mile.

Shack has a \"pair\" and will hit the board if speed is kind on Sat, it wasn\'t really on Preakness day.

Stay Thirsty an enigma, bred to be any kind, but only one good race at 3, tough read, sharp work yesterday at Belmont.

Shame Dialed In not running, the worst short priced horse in TC history.

Continued good luck.

Mike

[covelj70]

thanks for the thoughts Mike,

In terms of turfy horses that ran well on the dirt at Churchill but not as well at other tracks, I put Big Brown, Barbaro, Super Saver, Street Sense and HArd Spun on the short list of horses that were bred for the turf that all ran their best dirt figures at CD.  A few of them ran well on other dirt surfaces but I believe all of those horses top figs were at CD.

I think we may wind up adding AK, BS and MoH to that list after Saturday.

there are for sure other variables at work but this is an angle I think is worth considering.

[jbelfior]

Phil:

I don\'t agree with his number in Louisiana back in March. He was one fifth off of the track record and the internal splts and his finish were more impressive than the LA Derby front 3.

Last just a prep and dosage numbers suggest otherwise.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[richiebee]

Covel:

While I am not certain of past generations or dosage with regard to AK, my visual
impression of him is that he will like distances of 12 furlongs and beyond.

Does his work over Belmont alter your opinion that 3 in 5 weeks may have drained
him?

With regards to MOH, he will be arriving at Belmont at the last possible moment,
giving him no time to acclimate. Downgrade chances and probably toss now.

You say that Brilliant Speed was aided by a CD surface that favors turf action.
Could be, but BS has trained extensively at Belmont for a trainer who has been
ice cold this year.

Santiva is NW2LT, would have to come to far forward and hard for me to consider
in the top spot.

Stay Thirsty has the pedigree but who was behind this entry -- trainer or owner?
Lone stakes win in dead of winter at AQ against not ready for prime time competition.

Shackleford -- I\'ve underrated him beginning with his Fla Derby and it cost me in
the Preakness. Kind of agree that the once around mile and a half is unique and
that Jesus Castanon will have plenty to think about, even with an anticipated (by
some)clear lead.

Monzon-- If I was playing verticals, I would toss him in, mostly in the 3rd and
4th spots. A race over the track in the Peter Pan and sired by Belmont winner
Thunder Gulch.

Big disappointment -- only 5 in the Brooklyn on Friday.

[covelj70]

Hey Richie,

thanks for the thoughts buddy.

In terms of Animal Kingdom, I am just playing the percentages.

9 out of the 10 that have run in all three TC races since 2003 have failed to pair their top in the Belmont and throw in that he already had a slight move backward in the Preakness, I will take my chances.

He could beat me and it would be good for the game if he does but we are all doing this to beat favs and I think there are legit reasons to try and do that in this case.

In terms of Santiva and Stay Thirsty, I don\'t think either of them are great horses but neither were Drosselmeyer, DaTara or Jazil.  Only thing they had in common was a pedigree to get the distance and coming in fresh.

[TGJB]

Jim-- did you actually look at the sheets for BB, SS, Street Sense, and Hard Spun?

[richiebee]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hey Richie,
>
> thanks for the thoughts buddy.
 
> In terms of Santiva and Stay Thirsty, I don\'t
> think either of them are great horses but neither
> were Drosselmeyer, DaTara or Jazil.  Only thing
> they had in common was a pedigree to get the
> distance and coming in fresh.

Also common to Dross, DaTara and Jazil-- all were stabled at Belmont and trained
over the surface. Advantage Stay Thirsty and Brilliant Speed when looking for
value?

[Wrongly]

Jim

Food for thought.   11 of the past 25 Belmont winners ran in the Preakness.  That\'s 44% of the winners while making up only 31% of the entries. 10 of those 11 winners ran in both the Derby and the Preakness.  Touch Gold being the other who ran in the Lexington and Preakness.  

Also Da\'Tara ran in the Barbaro Stake and Sarava in the Sir Barton both on the Preakness under-card.  There were 5 winners who ran in the Derby and then skipped the Preakness and if you toss in Rags to Riches (Oaks) that number would be 6.  Just don\'t think the history of the Belmont is in line with your fresh face theory.

[covelj70]

thanks for the info but I look less at the winner percentage than I do at the figures and % of tops. For once I am writing something I know JB will agree with here.

There\'s no one in this race that is so much faster than the others that they can bouncrun off their top and win (like Afleet Alex did for example) so the likelihood of pairing a top is more important than win percentage and that likelihood is very low according to the last decade or so of runners.

[covelj70]

JB, I am missing something in your point

All of these runners ran a new top in the Derby at CD (in the case of Street Sense, he had already run that number as a two year old at CD).

In the case of Super Saver, Barbaro, and Big Brown, they never ran those figures again to my knowledge.

Either way, at that time in their careers, the CD surface represented their best figures of their careers.

What am I missing?