Saturday Del Mar Analysis

[JimP]

I played the 5th at Del Mar on Saturday using the Sheets. Then I checked your Analysis for that race in the RBR. I don\'t understand how you could have picked Genie Magic in that race. Looked too slow to me even with her best. Can you explain how you arrived at that pick? Note: My selection didn\'t do any better than yours did, but I\'m curious how you arrived at Genie Magic as a contender at all.

[bdhsheets]

My guess is that her top was 7 weeks ago and she may be cycling to it, at least a repeat, which made her competitive in that field. Buuuuuut, I agree with you. This is a heavily raced horse, it\'s best grouping of figures no doubt, but bo notation is a danger signal in my view. Oh well.

[JimP]

I saw the faint signal of a possible cycling also. BUT that top came in her 33rd race (if I counted correctly). It was a pretty big jump up from anything she had approached before. AND even if she did run back to it, there seemed to be several others in the race that were faster. I thought it would take a 10 to win it and I saw nothing in her line that indicated that a 10 was possible. But I don\'t claim to be an expert in reading these lines. I\'m interested in this analysis because there might be something subtle in this line that I\'m missing. Can whoever did the analysis for TG please comment on what they saw in this line that would indicate that a 10 was possible? Or maybe, point out why I shouldn\'t have concluded that a 10 would be required? And by the way, it would be helpful to know what the number of the winner actually was, if you can provide that information.

[TGAB]

Sorry for the delay in replying.
The recent numbers for GM suggest this is a new horse; specifically, her bad races were efforts in the past. My expectation is that she will break through her recent top, and soon.
For this race, I thought a 12/13 would do it. The two horses that have run 10 or better in the past seemed unlikely: Stage Down (the winner)because she\'s a shipper with a spacey line; and Nice Fish, for mostly obvious reasons.

With hindsight, the knock against the bet is that it\'s too soon. At this level, horses need more time (8-12 weeks) to recover.

BO/BI\'s are tricky. Without GM\'s last race, the BO would be off-putting, but just that wouldn\'t discourage me from betting the horse. In some cases (classy 2/3 year olds running new tops), a BO seems to be a positive sign.
Hope this helps, thanks for your posts.


Nick

[JimP]

Nick, thanks for the comments. I can see that I was not looking at the horse from the perspective that you were. However, I would like to continue the discussion if you don\'t mind because I still don\'t see why you say that \"this is a new horse\". What are you looking at to reach that conclusion? I see 33 races. As a 3 year old last year, she ran 18 times. The best she did was 14. She was in the 14 to 15 range in 7 of the 18 races. Her worst figure was an isolated 24. The 14 to 16 range was her norm in all but a couple of races. She came into this one with 11 races under her belt this year. And they were basically in the 14 to 18 range until that jumpup 11+. Until the 11+ I would have read her performance this year as indicating that she isn\'t quite as good as she was last year. I read the 11.5 as an isolated figure. She immediately dropped back into her comfort range of 14-15 range in her two following starts. So I concluded that she was a solid 14 going into this race. And I still don\'t see anything that indicates to me she she is likely to reproduce that 11.5. If you could say a little more about why you think a new top (i.e., 11 or better) is likely in the near term, I would appreciate it. Apparently you\'re reading the 11.5 as an indicator that she\'s improved. While I\'m putting more emphasis on the repetitions of the 14 top and the apparently somewhat worse lower end of her range at 18 as negative. If I generalize what I think you\'re saying into a RULE, the rule would be: \"If a horse beats its head reapeatedly against a certain level without ever being able to break through that level for 18 months or more and then suddenly breaks through by more than 2 points, it is an indication that the horse\'s ability level has improved and we should expect it to return to that new level soon\". Did I get it right? If so, is this a rule or principle that you apply frequently? Thanks for your patience in educating me on this.

[TGnick]

Be glad to continue the discussion.  I think you\'re asking me to explain my perceptions: \"What do I see?\"--a difficult job, but here goes.  
What you saw as a comfort zone I saw as efforts.  GM bounced in 6 of those 8 efforts.  Her slowness in breaking through indicates to me a problem which was solved when the breakthrough came.  The bounce off the 11.5 was reasonble, indicating the top didn\'t cripple her.  Keep in mind this is a developing 4yo and still has some new tops in her.  
As to the \"rule,\" I\'ld modify the ending to \"we should expect it to break through soon.\"  18 months has no significance other than pointing to a problem which was solved (as mentioned.)  
Regarding the 2 point breakthrough: For a horse like this I want to see a strong forward move.  Change that one number (11.5 to 13.5) and the line is unbettable.  
So with those modifications, that\'s a rule I use frequently--even though there are no rules.  
It\'s been my experience that explanations are always clear to the person making them.  If I haven\'t explained myself well, please feel free to continue the discussion.

[JimP]

I think I understand your explanation. Some helpful information for me to keep in mind. Thanks for taking the time.

[msola1]

As someone who has followed the board for a long time without posting, I want to thank JimP and TGnick for the most interesting discussion of the figures I can recall for some time. This is the very thing that will encourage me to continue to study the numbers, and (for those of you at Thorograph) to purchase them.

Let\'s see more

breeze

[JimP]

Nick: As a followup to this exchange, how would you evaluate the line of Blazing Roberto in the 9th at Saratoga tomorrow? It looks like a similar pattern developing that we saw with Genie Magic at Del Mar on Saturday. Do you assess it as similar? Does the breakthrough to a new level for Blazing Roberto after multiple cycles portend better things to come in your opinion. (Note: I have the sheets but not the analysis. TG may have covered this in the analysis.)

[TGnick]

Sorry for not being able to respond to this yet.  BR is an interesting, so I will get to it, even though it may take a couple of days.



Post Edited (08-16-03 11:10)

[TGnick]

Sorry for the delay.  I thought about having a discussion on tops in general (when to get off a horse, things like that)...but, it\'s too big a topic, and no time.  
BR doesn\'t look the same to me, because of age and because of the line.  BR has been cycling normally, got into the best shape in his life, and broke through.  I don\'t see any breakthroughs in the near future, but simply recycling back to the new top.  My expectation for BR in the immediate future is that it will bounce, and if the bounce is within reason (3-4 points at most), a move forward off the bounce, although not necessarily back to its new top.  That second race off the top may have value as a bet.  
Thanks for your posts.