Bailey OFF--Valdivia UP

[Silver Charm]

This is not to argue that Bailey isn\'t the top rider going currently. His record speaks for itself. However, Bailey has a certain style and the inability to wait as long as possible with certain horses that need to be ridden that way. His preferred style is to lay second or third on the outside and move to the leader at the quarter pole.

This weekend he stayed with Spoken Fur at Saratoga and Frankel put Valdivia back aboard Heat Haze. The result, the filly returns to a style of racing you had seen from her in her two previous wins where it looked as though she had been shot out of cannon at the head of the stretch. Particularly the 6 1/2 furlong race at SA in early spring.

Bailey moved early with her at Saratoga in the Diana and was gobbled up by Voodoo Dancer and a very confidently riding Corey Nakatani.

Frankel even said he was having problems with Bailey in how he wanted to moved early with Alderberan.

Valdivia may be the guy for this filly. Anyone who saw his rides on Val Royal two years back knows this guy has the nerves to wait and move to the lead inside the 1/16th pole. Something that Bailey instinctively just cannot seem to do.

[JR]

JB has one style. Position within striking distance around the far turn and overtake the leaders through the stretch. Rarely will you see him come from out of the clouds or wire a field. To me, he\'s somewhat overrated. His success should not be surprising considering the selection of mounts he gets. And good luck if you\'re counting on him to fill out an exotic.

[jbelfior]

Heat Haze beat Bien Nicole and lost to Vodoo Dancer. And for that we conclude Valdivia is better for Heat Haze than Bailey??


Joe B.

[Silver Charm]

Go back and look at the charts.

The one time she lost was in the Diana when she was never more the 3 3/4 lengths behind.

Valdivia has had her much further behind than that in every race and in some races futher than that at the 1/8th pole. Bailey almost instintively has to be on the lead by the 1/8th pole. He cannot seem to help himself.

This is a European filly who needs to be ridden European Style. Keep her at the back of the pack, angle out turning for home and let her explode.

That\'s not Bailey\'s way of riding.

[Frost King]

Is it ironic, or what, for all the races that Bailey wins on the grass over hear, he has never won a Breeder\'s Cup race on the Turf. Has won all of the other divisions, but never a BC grass race. Is it because he hasn\'t got the mounts, or he uses the wrong running style, like moving too early and then he gets eaten up in the stretch. Check the numbers, he has a poor ITM on the grass on the days biggest card of racing. At least Valdiva can say he won a grass race on BC day!

[Silver Charm]

Can you say Perfect Sting and Soaring Softly.

I know my wallet can, quite load and clear.

But I do agree with you if he rode over in Europe his style would not be effective and he would be forced to adjust. Being the great rider he is he would probably be able to do so because he would ride that way every race. That is the problem he has in America with certain horses, he rides every single one of them almost the same exact way.

[jbelfior]

Perhaps Valdivia rode HEAT HAZE from farther behind under instructions from Frankel. The 1 3/16 was questionable. Doesn\'t matter. Over the long run, I\'ll take Bailey\'s style anytime.


Joe B.

[Silver Charm]

Joe B wrote,

\"Over the long run, I\'ll take Bailey\'s style anytime\"

So you must be betting the jockey not the horse. Because over the long run I\'ll take Bailey\'s horses. I will give another example, Lukas put Bailey on Editors Note early in his 3YO year, a very difficult horse to ride. Bailey rode him once and said I don\'t fit the horse. Renee Douglas won the Belmont on the horse.

Also I will repeat what I said in the beginning that Frankel stated he was having problems with Bailey on how he wanted to ride Alderberan. That he was consistently wanting to move the horse to early.

[jbelfior]

No, I will not bet Bailey since almost all of his mounts are overbet. I simply said that I prefer his style. I do respect your preference for other, more patient rides. That certainly does work better on the turf.

By the way, Editor\'s Note won the Belmont because Skip Away ran the 6f in 1:102/5 that day. Douglas was just along for the ride.

[Silver Charm]

Point well taken.

Enjoyed the debate.