Chaotic Results

[jbelfior]

In one of my posts last week I mentioned that the 5 percent of people who play this game while having some sort of clue then have to battle the take-out, bad beats, pin head rides (let\'s add that in ) and chaotic results.
On Saturday, I was in the 95 percentile as Prime Cut looked as if he never belonged. I congratulate those on this board ( a board BTW that I think has quite a few in the 5 percentile) who touted Stay Thirsty (breeding plus surface), and Brilliant Speed (same reason).

You guys should have cashed big time. Both were double digit odds with reasonable explanations as to why they were able to run their eyeballs out. Then we get to a Ruler On Ice who defies explanation and logic........basically a chaotic result. Really don\'t want to get into the possibilities that are running through my head. I live near Monmouth Park and have my opinions on some of the guys who work their magic there.

Rough game. We\'re all nuts for doing this. Wouldn\'t want to be different, but sometimes  wish I was born without the gene.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[miff]

\"Rough game. We\'re all nuts for doing this. Wouldn\'t want to be different, but sometimes wish I was born without the gene\".


Joe B,

Take heart.Only those who are delusional are not occasionally humbled by this indomitable game.

Mike

[JR]

Not a chaotic result at all. ROI was one of the few in the race with a forward moving line who hadn\'t already peaked.

[jimbo66]

It this Chuckles the Clown or just somebody equally as willing to redboard to this extreme.  

Yeah, Ruler on Ice was extremely likely to win, possibly the most obvious standout on the day, with the possible exception of the Chatterpaul horse in the turf race right before the Belmont.  

I also like a horse that won the 5th yesterday at Churchill.  I think he has a good chance....

[TGJB]

You know, the horse that won the Manhattan was not crazy-- I ended up boxing 5 in tris and supers, using him light and pressing the others. Still didn\'t hit it. And as I said, I used him light in pick 3\'s, second or third finishers in the Belmont were hits for me.

You mentioned pre-race that the trainer had 2 speeds in there, when he scratched the other this horse figured to get the trip he got. Certainly had a history of running well fresh, and the trainer intent was obviously strong. He was going to run his race.

The Belmont winner was obviously a little tougher, though I know one guy who uses our stuff that hit the super for 30 cents. He\'s screaming about them putting the 3 tickets together in his NYRA 1 account and taking out the withholding.

[JR]

Now, now now. I had him in the first position with 7 others in a total fruit basket of a 10¢ super using all but the 11 in the 3rd and 4th spots. But I did like him as well as any of the others who\'d already topped out in either the Derby or the Preakness and looked to be going the wrong way. He had a legitimate reason to move forward and not many others did and there was value in that bet.

[JR]

Which, by the way, brings up to what I think is a really interesting discussion about the triple crown in the \"post steroid\" age. Big edge to the fresh horse.

[Rick B.]

JR Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not a chaotic result at all. ROI was one of the
> few in the race with a forward moving line who
> hadn\'t already peaked.

Let\'s see: not much at 2 years old, a 6 first time out at age 3, then a 7 3/4, then right back to top in the \"X\" race...then a new top with a slight improvement to 3.75...

Dude. That\'s not much of a \"forward moving line\" -- it\'s more like a straight line. What, you bet on that alone?

Come on, give us a break from the aftercapping already: you make it sound like we all missed something on this one. These things just seem more obvious once the race is run, and the result is posted -- that\'s why redboarding is so frowned upon.

[drbillym]

Definitely correct that Mission Approved had a shot after entry mate was scratched.  With Approval is an outstanding soft turf sire, Espinoza is a good turf jock, and yes, the trainer intent was there.
So I did notuse him for two reasons, which are major faults in my handicapping:
I am afraid 1) to bet a horse claimed for a relatively low price and going into a stakes  2) although I know you should bet horses who outrun their odds, when I see one lose at 53-1 I figure he just got lucky that day.
Any tips on how to overcome these faults will be appreciated.

[Boscar Obarra]

Not saying I had it or liked it, but chaos is a word thrown around a little too lightly. The game is riddled with Black Swans.  Especially when SLOPPY tracks are in play. I think the slop had as much to do with the result as any other factor.


 Strangely , the horse was 25-1 not 100-1, so the bettors had it about right.

[jbelfior]

Didn\'t your sister-in-law shoot you in your office at Ewing Oil?


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[plasticman]

I think the \'chaos\' in the Belmont resulted from the overestimating the talent level of the \'usual suspects\'. The AK\'s, Shak\'s and others were \'raced out\' and this was their 3rd hard race in 5 weeks. The way to have this winner is to just believe that the entire crop is average and inconsistent and that any \'new shooter\' has a chance. Sometimes the Belmont creates havoc, look at Birdstone or Sarava, those horses probably looked like they had LESS of a chance than the winner on Saturday.

This was a hard horse to have no doubt, but i think that there was at least one way to see this result happening...and that was to just believe all these horses are interchangable and anyone can beat anyone on any given day.

Overestimating how good AK, Shak, Nehro, etc were was the downfall of many a handicapper.

[magicnight]

Uh, to be fair, AK did have a spot of bother and Nehro finished 4th on a broken foot.

[jbelfior]

Plastic:

Sarava was coming off of a 4 length win in a stakes race at Pimlico on Preakness Day.

Birdstone was a highly regarded 3 yo early in the year after a solid 2 yo campaign and prior win over the course.

Ruler on Ice had no such credentials.

Which leads to another question. How did Sarava and Birdstone pay $142 and $77 respectively while ROI paid $51??


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[JR]

To me the 2 1/4 forward move was significant enough for me to put him in the first position allowing for the possibility he\'d have another forward move. I didn\'t single him. I used him with 7 others but, as I said, I felt he had as good a chance to go forward as some others had to go back. It simply ended up being a fortunate guess.