Nice Exacta

[Topcat]

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
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> alydar66 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I hope McGee\'s friends aren\'t betting his 1st
> > starters because he is 1 for his last 49 with
> only
> > 18% ITM.  Thats how the horse goes off at 60-1.
>
>  Why ruin a good story with facts? -)
>
>  I\'ve mentioned a few times, with little notice
> apparently, that the exacta matrix is frequently
> dotted with massive underlays. Most don\'t win.
> When they do , folks get all bent.
>
>  Doesn\'t mean that there weren\'t a few wise guys
> who knew the fts was live and bet accordingly with
> horses they liked.
>
>  Without seeing the board, I can\'t tell you what
> happened. But rest assured , for every one like
> this that hits, there are 200 that don\'t.
>
>   And I\'d feel sympathy for the winners, they got
> robbed.
>
>   PS I just looked at the chart. It may be seen as
> stretch here, but it could have been the names
>
> Windswept
> Chilled
>
>   If you\'re tempted to think I\'m joking, don\'t be.


I looked at the program numbers first . . . and didn\'t consider the names.

Good point, and likely valid, to a fair degree (ouch . . . )

[Rick B.]

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
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> And I\'d feel sympathy for the winners, they got robbed.

Maybe if they were newbies, we could feel sympathy...but experienced horseplayers that are too lazy to check the will pays, no. Didn\'t hear any stories of anyone being forced to bet this exacta against their will, and frankly, I see post-race bitching about \"short\" prices as a clear mark of a loser.

Edit: The obvious exception to my last comment is the notorious \"late crush\" of money that comes in and knocks your prices down to the unacceptable range, after you have carefully considered your wagers and checked the tote. That\'s hugely frustrating, no quibble there.

[sekrah]

Agree.  I dont understand how people who take so much time in finding value in their win play and then turn around and make a big exacta wager while completely ignore the payout matrix, because they \"assume\" it should be this way.

[alm]

Did anyone check the full list of exactas under the winner?  Were they all skewed?  Could it have been a top-down exacta coup...that got real lucky?

[TGJB]

The voice of reason.

I\'ll be curious to hear what the investigation shows about betting patterns, no real opinion about this until then.

It\'s also possible that one or more of the big computer players hated the favorites and the computer dutched a lot of combinations throwing them out.

[Boscar Obarra]

No one wants to believe that something as perverse as the names could account for this.  I\'ve only been analyzing the exacta pool for 35+ years, so don\'t go by me.

 And, yes , you would have to feel some pity for a handicapper that played the combo on an angle, and then got screwed because 300 hunch bettors got down.

 They will prob discover that a heavy set cigar smoking gent was seen making a cold $1000 box, having received the \'word\'.

[plasticman]

One way to have taken advantage of this situation is to see the exactas with the 2 were \'low\' and take a nice win and place bet on the 60-1 shot. This may have just been a \'perfect storm\' where everyone who liked this 2 horse just ignored the WPS pools and waded into other pools. Lets see what the investigation reveals.

[P-Dub]

alm Wrote:
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> Did anyone check the full list of exactas under
> the winner?  Were they all skewed?  Could it have
> been a top-down exacta coup...that got real lucky?

Agree here.  Some people like to wheel exactas, I know a few people that use this technique. Find a decent key and wheel.

Who knows how many use this style - and for what amounts -, combined with other random tickets, and that may explain it.

[alm]

I don\'t know how many of you are familiar with the owners-brreders of the winner...the Kleins (Bert, Elaine, Richard)...very active mid-western stable for many, many years.  They or their connections are also very big bettors.  I can\'t quantify it, but their horses always seem heavily overbet when they win and they win their share for sure.  Until this situation, I never paid any attention to their betting on exacta or exotic pools.  This was a longshot to begin with...a second time starter that was obviously ready.  Perhaps they calculated they had a better shot at a big payday in the exacta pool as opposed to the win pool (but take note this horse was also bet down somewhat from its morning line.)  The exacta paid 122-1, so it paid $12,200 for every $100 bet.  The horse only paid $840 for a $100 bet.  Please take my word for it, this stable is not a $100 bet group.  Soooooooo.  As I said up above, they had a good thing and they got lucky.

[Boscar Obarra]

well, anything ever come of this?