ROTW -- Hollywood Gold Cup

[TGAB]

The Hollywood Gold Cup will be the race of the week. It\'ll be up later this afternoon.

[Lost Cause]

I agree with the analysis on Twirling Candy.  At the weight and distance, bad fave.  I also agree that after that it is a toss up between a bunch so instead of spread I\'ll go with an angle to play the race.  It looks like Baffert might have the two main speeds in Game on Dude and First Dude (Assuming the race shapes made a mistake that Awesome Gem will be out there)  Expect Game on Dude to break well, come over on Twriling candy to force him back to race behind him while First Dude sticks right on the outside of Game On Dude.  If they can crawl early that\'s good enough for me to pay to see what happens..

If they go slow enough early Twirling Candy might hold for third but my main bets will be the exacta box with the two Baffy horses..Tough race so just pick an angle and hope you get lucky..Good luck all.

[big18741]

On this surface and at ten furlongs Setsuko should run his race which puts him around it.Playing him to be in the exacta.

He hasn\'t been too far back in his races as a four year old and Game on Dude doesn\'t want to be strangled.Guessing here that they aren\'t walking up front and the pace will be closer to honest.

Dark Cove a wild card.

Good Luck

[dariengrey]

The race analyst claims that Setsuko lost the Californian due to \"ground loss.\"  I suggest a different view - that Setsuko lost because Twirling Candy is far superior to him.  Twirling Candy was rank, had to be restrained, got shuffled from third to last, and then blew past the field with an acceleration that Setsuko simply does not possess.  Do trips such as the one Twirling Candy experienced factor into your theory of assigning numbers?  A horse who loses so many lengths, and is restrained from running freely, the way Twirling Candy did, should surely get a better figure than Setsuko\'s unencumbered trip.  Twirling Candy would have won that race by 10 lengths had the trips been reversed.  It is a race well worth watching, for those of you (possibly the analyst as well) who missed it.  June 4th.  Replays are at calracing.com.  Best racing to all, D

[miff]

\"Twirling Candy would have won that race by 10 lengths had the trips been reversed\".


Darien,

Don\'t agree, maybe wins by 5-6 lengths and gets a faster fig. Right on the money re the trip although they were moving slowly during most of SC\'s wrestling match. Sheet people only look at weight,ground loss, \"trips\" not relevant in calculating figures,too subjective to quantify in lengths.


Mike

[Rick B.]

Why bother discussing the 4/5 shot, or \"Seconditis Setsuko\"? No value in either, even if you are right and Alan B. is wrong.

With so many in here running 0\'s, or capable of same, I can\'t get away from Miss Match, for all the reasons Alan mentioned -- getting weight, curving back to best effort, will save ground, Talamo up, etc. -- this is easily the best No-Brainer Longshot of the Day.

If Twining Candy beats Setsuko for the win, the ex might pay $10.00...Miss Match will pay that to *place* all by herself should she run 1st or 2nd.

[TGJB]

Darian-- I\'m going to be nice about this because it sounds like you are new to what we do here (and that comment is independent of the outcome today), and you don\'t appear to have any agenda. It will be interesting to see if your views change if you\'re around here a while.

[Rick]

Boxing 4 in tri\'s and exactas - Miss Match, First Dude, Soul Candy and Dark Cove. Win/Place bets on Miss Match. Good luck today....

[JR]

Soul Candy

[alm]

Nice analysis...I threw TC into the bottom of the super and hit it....not big enough, but it beats losing.

[dariengrey]

Nice way to play it.  A tough race and you scored!

[djr2000]

LC , you hit on exacta cold with Dudes running one two and TC coming in for third.  Nice call with a little help from TG I hit exacta, win, and tri also.

[Lost Cause]

Not the way I thought it would set up but that wont stop me from cashing the tickets..

[colin12]

Joe Greene is that you? E