Blind Luck

[sekrah]

The idea that weight carried doesn\'t make a difference in any kind of race, whether its humans, automobiles, cockroaches, or horse racing, is pure ludicrous and I can\'t quite understand how anyone could possibly come to a different conclusion.   e=mc2.

Using evidence that \"because all their races were close, despite weight carried, that means weight don\'t matter\" is beyond absurd and to the point of LOL funny.

[miff]

JB,

Could not agree more. If we could book the \"handicapping\" opinions of jockeys, trainers and especially OWNERS(you left them out) we would need to rent Fort Knox to put all the money.

Re a jockey\'s opinion on the weight issue or dead rail issue, I\'ll defer to their opinion,you can use your favorite tools.


Mike

[Rich Curtis]

Two years ago, there was a long string on the Paceadvantage board that began with a poster writing the following:

\"I just heard Gary Stevens say that in a handicap, two pounds of extra weight will cost a horse one length.\"

So maybe the best approach here is to use the old Stevens formula for old races and the new Stevens formula (if there is one) for more-recent races.

[sekrah]

Without empirical data, they wouldn\'t have a clue.  All the jockey\'s I personally know (and that includes couple good ones) won\'t be found anywhere near any mensa meetings or math study groups.   They are the last ones who I would refer to on this topic.

[miff]

\"Using evidence that \"because all their races were close, despite weight carried, that means weight don\'t matter\" is beyond absurd and to the point of LOL funny\"


...yeah, why go off real examples, duh! Never said weight does not matter.Said all horses do NOT have the same ability to carry weight, nor do humans, cockroaches or any LIVING specie, duh!

Mike

[BH]

I think the weight issue is a question of degree. I don\'t think anyone on this board would dispute the claim that a 20 lb. difference in weight would affect the outcome of the race, all other factors unchanged.
I think incremental change in weight, and pace too for that matter, would be better measured using a Richter-type (logarithmic) scale, or maybe a geometric scale whereby a single unit increase may have a 10-fold effect, or an increasing effect, rather than a 1 to 1 effect.
Maybe this is how TG works already? TGJB?

[Rich Curtis]

Pace? Yes!

Weight? I don\'t think this works very well in real life.

[sekrah]

>> Never said weight does not matter


You just called Larry Jones a kool-aid drinker for believing in physics. Now which is it?  

I\'m happy to play this game everyday when I see people who don\'t think 2 pounds matters.

[MO]

If memory serves, I think it was Lenny Goodman who said \"If I were going to be a bookie, I\'d hang out in the jocks room and take all their action\".

Maybe someone has a better recollection.

[alm]

Mike

There could be a few hundred reasons that these two fillies would finish differently against one another in different races, but for understanding why they might be affected by 2 pounds today as opposed to their previous races I think I have to go with the trainer.  Obviously he felt his horse was at some sort of peak relative to the other horse and had its best chance to turn the tables...the 2 pounds were an affront to him for the reasons he stated...and may have made the difference given where he thought they were in their form cycles, physical development, mental development...you name it.  Your only shot in this business is to align all variables and be thrilled to win your one race out of five (or so.)  In any case, I have to go with Larry Jones before I ever listen to Gary Stevens.

Gary Stevens?  He\'s that shitty actor, right?  I\'d rather ask Alan Alda...at least he\'s a horse player and he can act, too.

[asfufh]

According to this, the real weight carried may vary from the official weight by up to 5+ lbs.
\"Each day\'s official racing program would state: \"A jockey\'s riding weight includes riding clothing, saddle, undergirth, and pad. The weight listed in the program does not include the jockey\'s safety equipment, which consists of the helmet, goggles, safety vest, and overgirth, and may also include a pommel pad, girth channel, and/or chamois. The total weight of this excluded safety equipment shall not exceed five pounds. The saddlecloths, whip, and bridle are not included in the five-pound limitation on safety equipment. The weight of the saddlecloth, bridle, whip, and all safety equipment is additive to and not included in the program weight or announced overweight.\"

Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/30900/chrbs-shapiro-to-testify-on-guild-dealings#ixzz1ST03Egbx

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >> Never said weight does not matter
>
>
> You just called Larry Jones a kool-aid drinker for
> believing in physics. Now which is it?  
>
> I\'m happy to play this game everyday when I see
> people who don\'t think 2 pounds matters.


There are many people who don\'t think 2 pounds matters, and they win at this game.  Not everyone uses TG to be a winning player.

You can now dismount that high horse you love to ride.

[sekrah]

>
> There are many people who don\'t think 2 pounds
> matters, and they win at this game.  Not everyone
> uses TG to be a winning player.
>
> You can now dismount that high horse you love to
> ride.

How did the \"You can beat the game without TG\" argument get into this discussion?  Did anybody bring up that TG is the end all-be all?  I missed that.

And just because somebody can beat the game without TG (There\'s absolutely people who can, duh), explain to me how that changes the laws of physics?

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >
> > There are many people who don\'t think 2 pounds
> > matters, and they win at this game.  Not
> everyone
> > uses TG to be a winning player.
> >
> > You can now dismount that high horse you love
> to
> > ride.
>
> How did the \"You can beat the game without TG\"
> argument get into this discussion?  Did anybody
> bring up that TG is the end all-be all?  I missed
> that.
>
> And just because somebody can beat the game
> without TG (There\'s absolutely people who can,
> duh), explain to me how that changes the laws of
> physics?

TG uses weight as a major component in their ratings and analysis.  Some non-TG users apply weight advantages to their handicapping, but it is usually for apprentice allowances and large weight differences.  A couple pounds doesn\'t matter to them.

You made a comment that you would be happy to play with people that dismiss a couple pounds.  As Mike stated, not all horses/people etc.. have the same ability to carry weight.  Some can carry it better than others, it affects horses/people differently.

There is a lot more to this game than a couple pounds. Having a slavish fixation on weight, I\'m sure there are some that would be happy to play this game with those people.

Its an odds game, 2 pounds won\'t get me off a horse at a price.  When someone is playing 3/1 shots, and have to be right far more often, perhaps being exact is more important.

Not saying weight never matters. Complaining about a couple pounds, without knowing how exactly that weight truly affected a horse, is specious at best. They aren\'t machines.

[moosepalm]

Many factors will affect horses differently, e.g., their comfort riding along the rail.  However, the game is nothing if not about percentage plays and variables.  There are always horses who will win at a weight disadvantage.  That\'s not the issue, because horses will overcome all kinds of disadvantages to win.  It\'s about weighing all the factors, however one might prioritize them.  If weight is not a high priority for someone, so be it, but don\'t say it\'s not a factor, unless you wish to rewrite the laws of physics.