The Haskell

[Dana666]

One of the more impressive Haskell\'s I\'ve ever seen. I thought when Coil broke slow he was essentially eliminated from the race. If I had paper tickets, I would have ripped them up in disgust--taking a speed horse out of his best game in a race that always favors speed types; well, he really had no shot. I was thinking just after the start \"this is embarrassing for Baffert.\" You simply do not win that race the way he did! Amazing effort.

[Dana666]

http://www.drf.com/news/haskell-coil-gives-baffert-another-score-shore

They\'re going to the Travers with him! Geez, that\'s a lot to ask of a horse within one month, isn\'t it? Show\'s you where my head is at. I was thinking go back to Southern Cal and run him in that BC prep race at Santa Anita in early October! I wonder if they bring him home or send him right to Saratoga? Seems like shipping back home and then back again to Saratoga only adds the the stress. Maybe they\'re thinking that Jim Dandy crew was so incredibly weak, the Travers is ripe for the taking. I won\'t question Baffert either way.

[miff]

Coil/Haskell earned a modest 96 Beyer. Surface was very fast and favored those outside paths most of the day. Coil\'s ground loss(and others on this day) offset by highly favorable outside track profile.

Coil,nice late run and huge new TG top,will slave off Shack and the wide trip but the race was not particularly fast, tough read going forward.Baffy tough bird!


Mike

[Dana666]

They say it wasn\'t a fast race? In the last 10 years, only Rachel ran faster. I didn\'t watch the other races, so I\'ll take your word on the outside bias, but still horses do not win that race closing from last--simply impossible on that track. I do think upon watching the replay that Garcia rode a great race, not panicking and waiting, not rushing the move. Also, the blinks off had to help b/c the horse\'s real mental toughness was unleashed as he was able to see the target and exert the maximum effort to run it down. This synthetic thing is getting old but when horses get on dirt they just feel so much safer and will really give their all, on synthetic they just don\'t feel confident enough. Very difficult to evaluate a race on synthetic.

[jimbo66]

Dana,

It was one of the slowest Haskell\'s in a number of years.  I am assuming that since you post here a lot, you understand that raw times don\'t mean a helluva lot.

They ran 1:07 and change earlier in the card with a slug who had slow UAE figures.  

Speed and the rail were death yesterday.  It wasn\'t hard to decipher that and even if you didn\'t decipher it yourself, you had the resident Monmouth expert Brad Thomas reminding everybody of it in between each race.  

Very hard to gauge Coil\'s performance IMO.  A speed horse circling the field is very very impressive IMHO.  The fact that the figure was slow and he was in the very much preferred profile for the track (outside sweep), offsets that quite a bit.  

Gauging this race is analagous to gauging Shackleford\'s Derby (prior to the Preakness of course).  The horse had a soft lead through slow fractions, but spit the bit late.  This was offset by the dead rail.  

Similar tough read on Coil.

[prist]

I agree that COIL will earn a new top, but I\'m not so sure it will be a \"huge new top\" ... that\'s if Jerry and Beyer are on the same page in regard to the variant.

What would you consider a \"huge new top\", Mike?

[miff]

Agree.Think he\'ll get a like a TG \"0\" which, at the distance, will be a huge top from his route figs.

Mike

[MonmouthGuy]

Miff. What do you think about the Teddy Drone 6F sprint winner.  Unless all of the next 5 horses X\'d, doesn\'t he get at least a neg 2 (more likely 3)?

[TGJB]

From his synth figures, you mean. I saw the other Baffert \"whistled\" as the favorite in the sprint stake, too. Twice in a row, in fact, after the big synth/dirt jump.

[prist]

Let\'s say you\'re right and Jerry gives him a 0. You\'re saying you would look at it as a 5 point move rather than a 3 point move (his top is/was a 3)?

While even a 3 point move is somewhat substantial, I would give this horse a decent shot at pairing that number a month from now. You probably wouldn\'t if you think it\'s a 5 point move, right?

Would your opinion on your read change if he did pair the hypothetical ZERO?

[miff]

Monmouth,

Teddy Drone winner was wide also. Beyer has him at a TG 0, track was fake fast, raw time like funny money.Would expect all those who looked good in the live wide path on Sunday at Monmouth to be over bet next out.

Mike

[miff]

Prist,

Coil\'s sprint win at Hollywood was in the TG 0 range imo after looking at that day and cross checking Beyer/Rags.Would be more concerned about Coil possibly  travelling in a far less live path next out and having to ship again if Baffy does not leave him here with Terranova.

Coil ran much faster on Sunday than in his previous routes but not faster than the Holly sprint win.You could say he got back to his best fig if you feel his sprint was under rated.

Good Luck


Mike

[miff]

\"I saw the other Baffert \"whistled\" as the favorite in the sprint stake, too.\"


...correct but two races prior, first time shipping from Cali, Irrefutable ran a lifetime top and neg fig at CD.


Mike

[prist]

Thanks a lot, Jerry. I would have looked at COIL a lot differently if I had known he really had a ZERO top. ;-)

[TGJB]

EXACTLY. Think about what you just said-- by your calculations that top was right in line with his previous races, and there\'s no reason he should have run worse in his next two. My point is that it was a synth/dirt jump, and he had the usual reaction.

A lot of Baffert horses jump first time outside California. Make a list, and see what they do the following time if they come back on dirt in 6 weeks or less.

By the way, Coil was getting weight from the 2-3 finishers, and didn\'t beat JJ by too much. Can\'t be too big a figure.