WHY I BUY "THE SHEETS'

[spa]

Red Board the 9th from Saratoga.

[JoseOcon]

I also buy \"the sheets\" every weekend and happy with the results.

The best plays for me are routes/dirt giving a lot of weight to the sire profile + ROI\'s

Saratoga 9th? which day?

[spa]

8/1/11

[JimP]

Ok, I\'ll bite. How did you throw out Holy Spice and By M K?

[JR]

Or Dixieland Cowgirl, Sugar Beach and Salt Water Lullaby?

[P-Dub]

Or the place horse Spa City Lover.

The winner paid 9.70.  Could you explain why you thought this 7/2 shot was such a standout?? Thanks..

[Lost Cause]

I didn\'t play yesterday so I have no form or anything just the redboard room for the sheets...  I can\'t see the winner as a standout.  I see what you probably did saying that the horse ran a decent number first time out on the turf sprinting while the sire profile says she should be three points better than that on dirt.  She then runs on the dirt and gets a dead rail trip so you can throw that out and try again.  The problem is if Holy Spice runs to his first race she is a must play and if Spa City lover improves from 2yo-3yo first time off the layoff by the 4 points in the TG Sire profile she is a must play also.  At 7/2 he is a tough sell to me and not a standout at all.  What was your thinking on her being a sheets spot play?  Keep in mind I don\'t know what the running lines look like i\'m just looking at the sheets which would seem to be all I need accrding to the post.

[TGJB]

I\'m guessing he\'s saying we\'re the only ones that mark dead rails. Which made a hell of a difference in evaluating that horse.

[Lost Cause]

Agree with you that the dead rail notation is huge and I mentioned that.  Just wanted to see how Spa chose that one over the other two that I mentioned.

[djr2000]

I think that spa is saying that Tony Dutrow has so much black type that he and horse look like a standout..especially that 27% win percentage coming back in two weeks with the same horse.

[FrankD.]

P-Dub and all,

I\'ll bite as I seem to be one of if not the heavy opinion at the Spa meet. There are only 2 meets I really dive into anymore, Gulfstream and my home course.

Start off with the 12 horse, Rudy\'s with the back 8. If he runs that number or close its game, set, match. Obviously he did not the Tony Dutrow horse had 2 turf starts and a dead rail. Not obvious by any stretch of the imagination but they are NY bred maidens !!! The Dutrow horse was pegged on the morning line, bet like a good thing in all the pools and if you were track side with Bobby G. and I, he left the post parade and sprinted off around the clubhouse turn. The 13 Wesley  Ward\'s horse was very alive and the common denominator with the 12 and 1.

The 2.3.6,10 all had a semi-completive numbers, some semblance of breeding and forward moving patterns although slow. The 2 and 3 looked very good track side, especially the 3.

I invested $ 200.00 into the race and cashed a $ 1 saver triple to get get even for the event. Bobby missed it. I\'m not sure what exactly Spa\'s point is and one of the things Richiebee mentioned this past weekend was about people posting selections without explanation. He has a good point and I\'m certainly guilty of it.

Looking back at the race afterwards the most logical conclusion was a combination of 1,12,13 / 1,12,13 / 2,3,6,10 a small investment could have produced a $ 441 tri and an $ 3,300 super. It happens more than not in a lot of NY bred races, very few can run !!!!

It\'s a speed figure board with many sharp, astute handicappers. One of the things I love about the Spa meet is meeting some of the posters and picking their brains.
JB, Alan, Bill & Julian all do this for a living, there are a few pro players who do as well. After 38 years of study, $$$$$, aggravation, etc.... I must confess that I\'ve learned more handicapping, betting strategies and cashed more IRS tickets in the past 3 years since I\'ve become a kool aide drinker for sure !

It would be nice if Spa elaborated a bit ? That\'s my humble opinion on the race and I\'m sticking to it.

10 days into the 40 day meet I\'m up a few shekels, not enough to quit your day job !

Good luck,

Frank D.

[spa]

Everybody here can handicap and in this race come up with the correct solution,if given the one difference. X marks the spot............The first rule,hard and fast,bet the horse coming off the dead rail.$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Why do think this SOB only paid $10?

[FrankD.]

Maybe because he was 9/2 morning line ?

I\'ll go out on a limb and say that 99.98 % of those across North America who bet on the race had no knowledge of or even know what a dead rail means !

Silly me, I didn\'t realize the game was so simple !

FD

[spa]

That 00.02% are the ones who make money at this game...........The morning line was a result of trainer and jock.The game is simple,bet the winner!

[JR]

Do you have any statistics on how frequently this dead rail thing clicks?