Whitney

[jbelfior]

No stars, but a terrific betting race. Time for Apart to grow up.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[albany]

I\'ve seen Giant Oak training and he has been impressive. The Whitney is filled with horses who run on or near the lead. Giant Oak often is forced to close into  soft early fractions. This will not be the case on Saturday.

[big18741]

I\'m down to FOF and Apart which pretty much guarantees both are off the board.

FOF is fast enough and Lezcano should be able to figure out a 1w1w trip.

Apart finally gets some pace to make one run at.

[Lost Cause]

Apart is really going to have to grow up for this one...Very slow compared to many here..


Friend or Foe-looks like he improved a lot from 3 to 4 and will sit the inside stalking trip with low weight..
Rail trip-  Will be stalking today.  Last looks like a prep off the layoff with a good dirt number,  I think Dutrow has this one ready to roll today.
Those two are my keys..they ran 1-2 last time why not bring them right back..

These are the B horses..

Tizway - got a lot of time off from that last big number so could shake off the effects and run another big one
Rodman- An enigma for me..I like him but I don\'t like him..@ 20/1 M/L I like him..
DUke of Mischief-  Will make his move around the turn as he always does  if he gets to the front he can be a tough customer.  If it even drizzles this becomes a key horse...superior mud runner..


The others are very slow numbers wise as long as you think Flat out bounces off the big number in last, which is the way i\'m going to view him.

Good luck everyone..nice tough day of racing ahead tomorrow..

[jimbo66]

Apart and Giant Oak?  

Boy, a whole bunch of horses are going to run lousy for one of those two to win this race.

7 of the 11 horses can run big negative numbers, on their best.  The chances of all 7 not doing it are pretty slim IMO and Apart and Giant Oak would need them all to not fire.

Now, the tricky part is which of the seven is going to fire?  I am starting my handicapping by figuring out which ones I don\'t expect to fire.

I have read a whole bunch of stories about Flat Out being a new horse.  I have to let him beat me.  He ran a 7 point new top and has exactly 1 figure that contends here.  Factor in that I expect him to be the favorite, and he is the first \"toss\" of the fast horses.

Even though Rodman is 20-1 and value, I just expect the big race in the Met Mile to knock him out for awhile.  His last was no good and there are monsters in here.

I loved Tizway in the Met Mile, and he does get rest into this, but he has bounced off his previous big efforts and hasn\'t shown yet he wants to run 1 1/8.  Those two factors weighted against him being likely 2nd choice, make him another toss for me.

Duke of Mischief is a tough call for me.  I can\'t ever guess when he is going to run his \"big ones\", but his \"big ones\" are plenty big to win, so he always has a \"puncher\'s chance\".  From post 11, with a ground loss trip likely, I am going to let him beat me.

That brings me to the three horses that I will use in multi-race bets.  In order of preference:

Rail Trip - Probably a move I will regret, taking an ouchy horse off a big effort, but I really liked his last race.  It was big, but he has gotten lots of time and the workouts say he is \"ready\".  The kicker for me is the 12-1 morning line.,  Tough to pass that up, if he is anywhere near it.

Morning Line - Might also be in the 10-1 range.  I know he was lousy last time at Monmough, but after missing time with injury, off the huge effort, it was likely a solid \"conditioning run\" for him.  It has been 4 months since the huge race and as the likely speed here, I have him slotted for a 1w/1w trip.  At 10-1, with a big number that he could run here, he is very usable.  

Friend or Foe - Tricky call for me.  I hate when a trainer enters a horse in a big race as an \"afterthought\".  This horse was training for a race last week but got scratched when the track came up wet.  Instead, he attacks a very fast field.  But he is inside and has had reasonable rest since the big figure 1st time 4 year old.  As often talked about on this board, horses can come back stronger at 4 and not bounce off the big numbers.  (like Trappe Shotte - sorry TGJB).  I suspect we don\'t get 8-1, but I won\'t let this one beat me in the horizontal bets.  He is talented.  

Bottom line for me in this race is that with 7 fast horses in a competitive field, I need value to bet the race.  I think the 12-1, 10-1 and 8-1 on the above 3 is \"fair value\" on each.

Giant Oak, Mission Impazible, Headache and Apart are too slow and have no shot. Not to mention that Giant Oak, MI and Apart have enough \"name recognition\" to actually take money when they should be 20-1+ odds.  (I am sure I just put one of  them in the winner\'s circle.)

Good luck

[sekrah]

Key: Rail Trip

Uses:  Friend Or Foe, Morning Line, Tizway

[alm]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Apart and Giant Oak?  
>
> Boy, a whole bunch of horses are going to run
> lousy for one of those two to win this race.
>
> 7 of the 11 horses can run big negative numbers,
> on their best.  The chances of all 7 not doing it
> are pretty slim IMO and Apart and Giant Oak would
> need them all to not fire.
>
> Now, the tricky part is which of the seven is
> going to fire?  I am starting my handicapping by
> figuring out which ones I don\'t expect to fire.
>
> I have read a whole bunch of stories about Flat
> Out being a new horse.  I have to let him beat me.
>  He ran a 7 point new top and has exactly 1 figure
> that contends here.  Factor in that I expect him
> to be the favorite, and he is the first \"toss\" of
> the fast horses.
>
> Even though Rodman is 20-1 and value, I just
> expect the big race in the Met Mile to knock him
> out for awhile.  His last was no good and there
> are monsters in here.
>
> I loved Tizway in the Met Mile, and he does get
> rest into this, but he has bounced off his
> previous big efforts and hasn\'t shown yet he wants
> to run 1 1/8.  Those two factors weighted against
> him being likely 2nd choice, make him another toss
> for me.
>
> Duke of Mischief is a tough call for me.  I can\'t
> ever guess when he is going to run his \"big ones\",
> but his \"big ones\" are plenty big to win, so he
> always has a \"puncher\'s chance\".  From post 11,
> with a ground loss trip likely, I am going to let
> him beat me.
>
> That brings me to the three horses that I will use
> in multi-race bets.  In order of preference:
>
> Rail Trip - Probably a move I will regret, taking
> an ouchy horse off a big effort, but I really
> liked his last race.  It was big, but he has
> gotten lots of time and the workouts say he is
> \"ready\".  The kicker for me is the 12-1 morning
> line.,  Tough to pass that up, if he is anywhere
> near it.
>
> Morning Line - Might also be in the 10-1 range.  I
> know he was lousy last time at Monmough, but after
> missing time with injury, off the huge effort, it
> was likely a solid \"conditioning run\" for him.  It
> has been 4 months since the huge race and as the
> likely speed here, I have him slotted for a 1w/1w
> trip.  At 10-1, with a big number that he could
> run here, he is very usable.  
>
> Friend or Foe - Tricky call for me.  I hate when a
> trainer enters a horse in a big race as an
> \"afterthought\".  This horse was training for a
> race last week but got scratched when the track
> came up wet.  Instead, he attacks a very fast
> field.  But he is inside and has had reasonable
> rest since the big figure 1st time 4 year old.  As
> often talked about on this board, horses can come
> back stronger at 4 and not bounce off the big
> numbers.  (like Trappe Shotte - sorry TGJB).  I
> suspect we don\'t get 8-1, but I won\'t let this one
> beat me in the horizontal bets.  He is talented.
>
>
> Bottom line for me in this race is that with 7
> fast horses in a competitive field, I need value
> to bet the race.  I think the 12-1, 10-1 and 8-1
> on the above 3 is \"fair value\" on each.
>
> Giant Oak, Mission Impazible, Headache and Apart
> are too slow and have no shot. Not to mention that
> Giant Oak, MI and Apart have enough \"name
> recognition\" to actually take money when they
> should be 20-1+ odds.  (I am sure I just put one
> of  them in the winner\'s circle.)
>
> Good luck

I agree with just about everything you said here, but I don\'t want to jinx you...so I won\'t agree about Friend or Foe...I think he gets a class test here even though his numbers suggest he can compete with these.  He beat Rail Trip, but caught him coming off a layoff.  Rail Trip may run better this time, but I don\'t think FOF can or will.  And instead of FOF, I cannot get past Tizway, who is the fastest horse in the race.  My question about him is about how he came up to last year\'s Whitney...I can\'t remember, but this year Bond seems to have him coming up to it very well, with rest and a very solid work tab.  So I\'m up for Rail Trip, Morning Line and Tizway.  I thought about throwing Rodman in, but Naaaah.

[richiebee]

Flat Out -- Big Bounce

FOF -- Using him as he tries to join Fio Rito and Commentator as NYSB slow rat
Whitney winners. Kimmel very confident.

Morning Line -- logical to me

Giant Oak -- always seems to run the same race, which would be too slow here.

Tizway -- miler?

Miss Impaz -- slower, only SWs at FG, using because I do not want to toss Pletcher/Castellano

Rail Trip -- Don\'t know what to do here. Bar shoe last 2, obviously a huge
positive IF he is bar shoe off today. Using protectively only.

Headache -- too slow.

Rodman -- outclassed pace factor.

Apart -- too slow.

Duke of Mischief -- has put up big neg #s 2 times on fast tracks in races
at this 9 furlong two turn configuration. Worked a very fast 1/2 at the Spa last
Sunday. Obviously needs plenty of fortune from the 11 box, but he is arguably as
fast as any in this race and will probably be left off lots of tickets. I\'ll be
using DOM. Obviously huge if one of FrankD\'s flood warnings ever comes true.

Using FOF, Morning Line, Mission Impaz, DOM and maybe Rail Trip in the
horizontals.

[albany]

Jimbo:

I recognize that Giant Oak does not compare favorably to several of the other horses when it comes to numbers. My opinion of Giant Oak may be affected by the fact that I saw his 58 4/5 work in which he was physically impressive and finished with good energy. Additionally, the anticipated pace scenario should set up Giant Oak\'s late run. Among others, Morning Line, Tizway, Mission Impazible, Rail Trip, Rodman and Friend or Foe want to be on the lead or press the pace. While it is no longer fashionable to express (especially on this board), pace does sometimes make the race.

Given my respect for your handicapping ability, I will be using your selections with Giant Oak. I will go a little heavier with your second pick, Morning Line, since he ran a good second to Giant Oak in Florida.

Good luck to all,

Albany

[BitPlayer]

What\'s up with his work pattern?  From what I\'m looking at, it took him a month to post a work after his last race.  Did something happen?

[miff]

Bit,

Kimmel gets ill every time he jogs, gallops or trains one, so that won\'t factor, imo.This is not Belmont Park(he\'s 4-4 there) and his last \"lofty\" neg big fig was off a good trip in a 4 horse field. Going in here,he does not figure to get that kind of trip,his races at the Spa not as good as elsewhere but he is a better horse now.

Mig likes him, thinks he\'s never been better.Very, very tough race, could use 5 and not hit the board.

Good Luck!

Mike

[Dark Bay]

Hands down the best G1 race we\'ve had since BC.

See 6 horses that can win this race.  Fat Out, Friend or Foe, Morning Line, Rodman, Rail Trip & Tizway.  

Rail Trip:  Back to 2 turn racing which I think he prefers.  His work tab gives me a lot of confidence that Dutrow is bringing a very fit horse to this race.   8 published works in 8 months leading up to the Easy Goer (8 Month layoff).   He has 8 published works leading up to this race (2 months).   His 6 furlong breezes are noticeably faster.  At his best, he\'s the most talented horse here.    A big win expected..

Rodman has a huge shot.   Third back after hitting board in two of the best dirt races of the year and is 2-2 at Saratoga.  Ready to run back to Met Mile form.

Morning Line will get a comfortable lead.  The ones capable of forcing the pace will sit back and hope he comes back.    He may not.   Closers will be compromised.    Holds on for third.

Tizway, Friend or Foe & Flat Out are all capable.   If Flat Out repeats we might have a handicap star.    Betting against that, fingers crossed.  Tizway prefers Belmont and a flat mile.   Friend or Foe scares me so I\'ll use him defensively over my top two.  Think he\'ll be really good by BC.

[jimbo66]

Albany,

If they war it up front and the race falls apart, then this would seem to be Giant Oak\'s best chance.  

Don\'t let me talk you off a longshot!  BTW, the morning line maker at Saratoga is having an AWFUL meet, if you ask me.  You will get 10-1 or better on Giant Oak IMO.  There is no way he is the 2nd choice, which is what the morning line maker has him set at.  

I have a different read on the pace scenario in the Whitney.  I think that what the connections instruct Maragh to do on Tizway is the key.  Morning Line is the only real \"must have\" the lead horse IMO.  Tizway could be that kind, but my guess is that since they are trying a distance they know he may not get, they will look to settle him behind the lead, in the 2nd or 3rd slot.  I have heard Bond say that the reason Tizway didn\'t get the distance the last time he ran in the Whitney was because he chased Commentator early.  If Tizway tucks, then you have Rail Trip, also a comfortable stalker and Rodman with \"never sends\" Edgar Prado from an outside post.  

I see an average pace scenario for this type of quality field and not a \"war\" and \"collapse\".  At least that is how I will be playing the race.

[shanahan]

uh oh... I have the exact same 3 horse box...simply due to how these have faired when facing G1 competition.  Someoen here posted many moons ago that Grade 1 horses win Grade 1 races, and I have found that to be good advice.  No surprises, just good odds.

[drbillym]

The speed did not hold up in the John\'s Call yesterday, as I learned the hard way on Kindergarden Kid.  Maybe different today-good luck.