Whitney

[FrankD.]

Duke of Mischief has run 4-neg at 3 different tracks in a year. He\'s fresh and a price.

Win bet and a COLD DOUBLE with Green Monster ( back 2 ) in the last. We\'ll also key him back and forth in exactas & tri\'s with FOF, Rail Trip & ML.

Great discussion today on this race with Bill, raining but not not heavy enough to effect anything yet !

Good luck,

FD

[Michael D.]

1. Friend Or Foe - both Sar runs are better than they look, and Maragh to Lezcano is positive imo. draws well here, and is the lightweight. big strong horse with a high cruising speed. if he breaks into stride and tracks a few off the lead 1w, I like his chances at a decent price.

2. Rail Trip - Dutrow is good in these spots. very good. if he gets it his own way in :47, RT\'s gonna be tough to run down.

3. Giant Oak - a nice \'0\' runner, and he\'ll do that again off the good works. should run 1w behind the pack from the 4 hole, and close 3 or 4 wide. could get a piece.

4. Headache - another that benefits from a strong pace.


key Friend Or Foe, use RT, GO, and Head underneath.

[albany]

Jimbo:

Nice read on the pace. I felt that Giant Oak raced well even though he went very wide and didn\'t get an ideal set up. Lost a fair size straight bet, but underneath play helped me avoid a major financial reversal.

Albany

[jimbo66]

Albany,

Nice call on Giant Oak.  He ran a good race.

The track was extremely slow late in the card.  A classic example of the \"track changing speeds\" from early to late.  The horses ran a good 4 seconds slower than they normally would expect and the sprint from Turbulent Descent was a couple seconds slower than the normal Test.

Tizway got a nice trip, but ran a nice race.  The runner-up ran pretty well too, certainly not a big bounce.  Giant Oak ran well too.  Not sure anybody else ran well at all.  My picks were awful.  Rail Trip and Morning Line ran despicable, with Friend or Foe surprisingly fighting for the lead, and running a weak fourth.

Oh well, next time....

[miff]

\"The horses ran a good 4 seconds slower than they normally would expect and the sprint from Turbulent Descent was a couple seconds slower than the normal Test\".

Jim,

Ever since Kozak became NYRA track super,any sign of rain usually means races go 10/20+ lengths slower,raw,than one would expect.Yesterday a classic example of a slow cuppy surface destroying any horse in the \"foot rattler\" category.Very tough surface and several owners/trainers who long pointed for Test/Whitney,disappointed with track maintenance for those races.Seal,back rake whatever,god forbid the track gets wet fast/sloppy.Track got progressively slower from the Test to the last dirt race,a crawl, notwithstanding an alw for 1x for NY Bred slow rats, a few who could run.

Example,at the same distance last week, 3 yr old Stay Thirsty outran  the Whitney group by 20+ lengths raw,a function mainly of track maintenance.Without figs, one might think Stay Thirsty ran much \"faster\" than say Tizway, just ain\'t so.


Mike

[Michael D.]

albany Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo:
>
> Nice read on the pace. I felt that Giant Oak raced
> well even though he went very wide and didn\'t get
> an ideal set up. Lost a fair size straight bet,
> but underneath play helped me avoid a major
> financial reversal.
>
> Albany


Alb,

The pace here was strong. FOF has :46 straightaway speed and was ridden out of the gate like it was a 400 yard race. ML has sub :46 speed, and he was ridden early as well. The winner has :45 speed, and he was nudged in the early stages too.

Forget the clock. It\'s funny-money in this case. Variant was all over the place, and there is no way to get a confident read on the track speed of the opening 1/4 because that was the only 9f race of the day. No other horses ran in that spot. If the 9f time can be off by 4.5 to 5 seconds, the opening 1/4 could be off by 1 to 1.5. I\'m thinking :22.4 and :46.4 adjusted, though just a guess.

And Tizway was absolutely huge. To do what he did at a flat mile over a lightning quick track, then follow it up with a brilliant 9f run over the deadest of dead race tracks? Huge.

FOF ran ok, but he looks like a one-turn horse, and that one turn needs to be a wide one.

Giant Oak ran well. He was probably 2nd best. That is one very solid race horse.

[albany]

Thanks, I\'ll check the replay when I get to the track.

[FrankD.]

Mike,

I\'m inclined to agree with you and can understand the frustration from owner/trainer/bettors perspective but were usually not talking showers or normal rain up here when hot and humid.

We\'ve all seen this track get trashed in a matter of 15 minutes ? Remember the 87 Travers when the heavens opened up during the post parade ? Java gold, Cryptocleareance & Polish Navy 1,2,3 in a field with Alysheba & Bet Twice. The whole race changed after the horses came on the track. If you weren\'t track side or watching live you had no chance in the race.

Maybe Kozak is a bit over reactive but the weather forecasts that Richie keeps abusing me about aren\'t plucked out of the air. We\'ve had a lot of near misses up here with storms missing by a few miles or hitting after the races. If you were here yesterday you would have sworn from the 2nd race on that we were going to get it at anytime ?

Good luck,

Frank D.

[miff]

Frank,

Very familiar with end of the world Spa storms,but they also do it downstate.

Good luck!


Mike

[jimbo66]

Michael,

I don\'t think I would call the pace \"strong\".  

The final time was 4 seconds slow and the pace call was 2 seconds slow.  Seems like a relatively \"par\" pace for the class.  I wouldn\'t give frontrunners extra or downgrade closers, when assessing this race going forward.

Agreed that one thing to take out of this race was Tizway running huge on a fast Belmont surface going a 1 turn mile and then running huge on a slow tiring Saratoga track going 1 1/8 is one helluva an achievement.  If Ghostzapper stretched to 1 1/4, why can\'t Tizway, under the right circumstances?  This appears to be the year to try as nobody is particularly fast.

[Funny Cide]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> albany Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Jimbo:
> >
> > Nice read on the pace. I felt that Giant Oak
> raced
> > well even though he went very wide and didn\'t
> get
> > an ideal set up. Lost a fair size straight bet,
> > but underneath play helped me avoid a major
> > financial reversal.
> >
> > Albany
>
>
> Alb,
>
> The pace here was strong. FOF has :46 straightaway
> speed and was ridden out of the gate like it was a
> 400 yard race. ML has sub :46 speed, and he was
> ridden early as well. The winner has :45 speed,
> and he was nudged in the early stages too.
>
> Forget the clock. It\'s funny-money in this case.
> Variant was all over the place, and there is no
> way to get a confident read on the track speed of
> the opening 1/4 because that was the only 9f race
> of the day. No other horses ran in that spot. If
> the 9f time can be off by 4.5 to 5 seconds, the
> opening 1/4 could be off by 1 to 1.5. I\'m thinking
> :22.4 and :46.4 adjusted, though just a guess.
>
> And Tizway was absolutely huge. To do what he did
> at a flat mile over a lightning quick track, then
> follow it up with a brilliant 9f run over the
> deadest of dead race tracks? Huge.
>
> FOF ran ok, but he looks like a one-turn horse,
> and that one turn needs to be a wide one.
>
> Giant Oak ran well. He was probably 2nd best. That
> is one very solid race horse.

I agree with your assessment.  I didn\'t care what the splits and final time said.  One could just look at Tizway and know he ran a really big race.

This was a horse who was pretty much written off in top company at 1 1/8.  What do you think of his chances going 1 1/4 in the JCGC (and Classic)?

[miff]

Tizway gets a Beyer of 111. Tough race and tough day for making figs, track speed all over the place from beginning to end.

Will be interested to see if Rag figs comes up real slow, which they normally do when the track has split variants.


Mike

[Michael D.]

Jim,

Let\'s agree on \"honest\". Not enough info to have a confident call either way. Probably faster than most think however.

[Michael D.]

Funny Cide Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D. Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > albany Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Jimbo:
> > >
> > > Nice read on the pace. I felt that Giant Oak
> > raced
> > > well even though he went very wide and didn\'t
> > get
> > > an ideal set up. Lost a fair size straight
> bet,
> > > but underneath play helped me avoid a major
> > > financial reversal.
> > >
> > > Albany
> >
> >
> > Alb,
> >
> > The pace here was strong. FOF has :46
> straightaway
> > speed and was ridden out of the gate like it was
> a
> > 400 yard race. ML has sub :46 speed, and he was
> > ridden early as well. The winner has :45 speed,
> > and he was nudged in the early stages too.
> >
> > Forget the clock. It\'s funny-money in this
> case.
> > Variant was all over the place, and there is no
> > way to get a confident read on the track speed
> of
> > the opening 1/4 because that was the only 9f
> race
> > of the day. No other horses ran in that spot.
> If
> > the 9f time can be off by 4.5 to 5 seconds, the
> > opening 1/4 could be off by 1 to 1.5. I\'m
> thinking
> > :22.4 and :46.4 adjusted, though just a guess.
> >
> > And Tizway was absolutely huge. To do what he
> did
> > at a flat mile over a lightning quick track,
> then
> > follow it up with a brilliant 9f run over the
> > deadest of dead race tracks? Huge.
> >
> > FOF ran ok, but he looks like a one-turn horse,
> > and that one turn needs to be a wide one.
> >
> > Giant Oak ran well. He was probably 2nd best.
> That
> > is one very solid race horse.
>
> I agree with your assessment.  I didn\'t care what
> the splits and final time said.  One could just
> look at Tizway and know he ran a really big race.
>
> This was a horse who was pretty much written off
> in top company at 1 1/8.  What do you think of his
> chances going 1 1/4 in the JCGC (and Classic)?


FC,

tough call since this guy now becomes the big favorite. his only 10f race was good, a negative .75, but that was in the slop. Quality Road put up a big # in that race as well, and I don\'t think he was a mile and a quarter horse. Tiz is better now than he\'s ever been, however, and that has to be factored in. pedigree is neutral. Dayjur is short, but everybody knows that. 2nd dam is Willamae, dam of Travers winner Will\'s Way. loads of stamina from Hoist The Flag and Northern Dancer.

I\'ll probably wind up trying to beat Tiz at 10f, but not with a ton of confidence.

[Silver Charm]

Michael,

A friend of mine knows a Trainer who knows Bond! He has been touting this horse for two years. So much so that when the touting came back right this years Met I nodded and ignored. Maybe being a son of Tiznow who was a bit of a late developer he is ready to begin to live up to the confidence the Trainer has in him.

These last two race, with no tight spacing to knock him out, were both a tour-de-force!!