Anyone have any thoughts on the pick six at Del Mar today?

[Dana666]

Big carry-over at Del Mar? Anyone have any ideas on singles???
Any help would be appreciated.

[number5858]

1. Kinda like #1 Harmonious in the 9th. Pace sets up nice for a closer. Finished 2nd at Del Mar last year in the Gr. 1 Del Mar Oaks. Likes the distance. Likes the poly.

2. For the 10th, seems you need to find the impossible 30-1+ shot of late or hit the all button.

[Dana666]

I agree with Harmonius, but I have a hard time leaving out the two other monsters in there, Celtic Princess and Malibu Pier, but I do think Harmonius is stepping forward, and certainly not the worst single!

The 10th isn\'t that tough at all. Actually I like the race a little. If you want to spread deep use 2,3,4,6,8,10,11 but I would toss a few of those and just use 3,4,8, 10,11. Note: The last number on the 11 is questionable in my mind. He moved forward in his last race, no way he paired up, though you could argue pairing up first time Del Mar IS moving forward. His last race is BTL for sure and if closers have any shot, he\'s very live. They may not have any shot the way the track has been playing. That should lock it up. Get the other 5 races, I can get you past the 10th.

[number5858]

I am going to skip it today, but I want to wish you good luck Dana. I believe Celtic Princess scratched.

[bellsbendboy]

Thinking the tenth is very competitive and playing a pair.

\"Zomby\" went to Puype a year ago and worked very well while dropping into statebred sellers but ran off between horses.  The hood was pulled and although the claiming price went down, the colt was actually moving way up in class.  Q rode as Joe T was on the even money Mitchell and a good third ensued.  Fast forward ten months, very confident works, Joe T back up and nothing to beat.

Half Dome Dude is a firster from Mitchell by the Numerous stallion Kela who oddly enough provided the trainer with his first grade one score ( 2004 Crosby).  Homebred gelding worked three panels June 6th then five eights five days later, and betting those types always profitable over time.  The bullets since noted.

As for favored Harmonious, tread lightly.  She has never beat this kind, has been trained very soft and will have a trio of very sharp fillies in front of her at the pole.  Good luck! bbb

[TGJB]

Are any of you guys using sheets?

[Dana666]

Yes, Jerry, of course. On the sheets we might consider singling Baffert\'s horse in the 8th and Mandella\'s in the 5th--they\'re both way faster than their opponents. Only problem is Mandella\'s colt has the 10 post in a mile turf race and Baffert\'s hasn\'t run on Poly, so it isn\'t that easy (they\'re both odds on too . Other than that, I\'m not seeing any sheet standouts. Am I missing something as per usual?

[Caradoc]

Dana: I wouldn\'t single the Baffert horse, or Harmonious for that matter.

The seventh is an absolute scramble.  While I like the trainer change on the Wygod horse and expect him to improve, there are any number of horses in that race that are competitive.  I could make a case for no less than 6 horses, which was enough to keep me from getting involved in the P6.

In the eighth, Baffert\'s horse ran a number that is as likely to be a setback as a platform, and on top of that there is the poly question.  Were I in the P6 I\'d have to include her, but the strongest line to me is Cecil\'s horse from the rail.  Cecil is a layoff trainer and this one has run her top off the layoff before.  Cecil\'s horses have looked good at Dmr so far.  She\'s my key in that race but I am also using Sadler.

In the feature, I\'m a little concerned that Harmonious has not yet run back to the 1 3/4.  Yes, I know there are excuses -- the short turnaround to the BC, the slow pace, dirt, the layoff and so on.  Anyway, the two horses outside of her look as good to me without presenting the same issues.  WT has run a top 7 out of the last ten times so she is pretty strong in here.  On top of that she should have a pace advantage.  Very, very tough if she runs her top.    

Best of luck if you get in the P6.

[shanahan]

got knocked out of pik 6 in leg 1...so on to the pik 4 I guess - too late to post analysis, but if anyone\'s company wants misery:

race 7) 10 3 1 7 2
race 10 9 2 1
race 9)  1 3 4
race10)  8 6 3 (2) not sure if I take the 2 - few scr at this point, and I have a thing about not betting over $100 on a pik 4.  

had the 9 singled at SAR for that pik 4, but it cost about a third as much and I was quite unhappy - two days in a row - after SAR last leg...

[TGJB]

The issue is not who are/were standouts, and I\'m not a big fan of one number horses, especially when they are now running on a different surface, and most especially at short prices. My point is that a lot of the horses you guys DO like are not that fast in their races, you couldn\'t possibly have come up with those opinions from our data. Malibu Pier is a monster? Really? Even after the scratch, their are three fillies in that race with better tops.

[Dana666]

I would give much more importance to numbers earned at today\'s distance, and only Harmonious and Cozi Rosi had faster tops than Malibu at longer distances, and not by that much; Harmonious only ran one big number anyway in her career.  

\'Malibu ran an awesome race today--I\'d say she earned a better number than the winner, what do you think? She traveled 27 feet farther! Gomez\' perfect trip was too much. Malibu has a heart as big as Montana, and she\'s as game as racehorses come, period.

I\'m so pissed I blew this pick six today. What a freaking disaster. Every horse really figured from every angle, numbers, workouts, you name it. I\'m going to bang my head against the wall for a while. This is bad.

[Dana666]

Those were very good calls on who not to single!

I had a great shot but didn\'t structure my ticket well. From workout reports I should have just singled Mitchell\'s runner in the last b/c he outworked Mitchell\'s winner in the forth race! I wound up using 3 runners there, the 3,4,8. Although the 3 ran a decent number over the surface, (visually) he really struggled over it and had little speed, and Baffert\'s horse was nothing special. I had to take out a few horses in earlier races I had no business taking out because I was using too many in the last race. I didn\'t have Cho\'s runner in race 6 who had speed and the rail and a decent number first out-- that was just stupid, and I didn\'t have Cosi Rozi in the feature because I needed a single, and with the scratch of Celtic Princess, I figured I\'d take a shot there with just one, so I signed Malibu Pier.

Often when it pays 750K you say I had no shot, yesterday was not the case. That was one that really got away needlessly. I also got killed at Arlington Saturday and that didn\'t help either, my bankroll for Sunday went from 5K to 500, so I was chasing from the beginning Sunday.

My ticket looked like this:
1,4,7 with 2,7,12 with 1,3,8,10 with 2,10 with 4 with 3,4,8

My mix of numbers in the second leg included 1,2,7,10,11,12 -- would have been easy to restructure the ticket with a single in the last leg. Cosi Rosi was bugging me too because though I\'m not a huge fan of hers, Gomez taking the mount really bothered me that I shouldn\'t leave her out. Would have been a big ticket to throw her in but if I don;t get crushed Saturday, who knows? This game is so much about discipline and money management and confidence, three things I often lack!

[P-Dub]

Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Those were very good calls on who not to single!
>
> I had a great shot but didn\'t structure my ticket
> well. From workout reports I should have just
> singled Mitchell\'s runner in the last b/c he
> outworked Mitchell\'s winner in the forth race! I
> wound up using 3 runners there, the 3,4,8.
> Although the 3 ran a decent number over the
> surface, (visually) he really struggled over it
> and had little speed, and Baffert\'s horse was
> nothing special. I had to take out a few horses in
> earlier races I had no business taking out because
> I was using too many in the last race. I didn\'t
> have Cho\'s runner in race 6 who had speed and the
> rail and a decent number first out-- that was just
> stupid, and I didn\'t have Cosi Rozi in the feature
> because I needed a single, and with the scratch of
> Celtic Princess, I figured I\'d take a shot there
> with just one, so I signed Malibu Pier.
>
> Often when it pays 750K you say I had no shot,
> yesterday was not the case. That was one that
> really got away needlessly. I also got killed at
> Arlington Saturday and that didn\'t help either, my
> bankroll for Sunday went from 5K to 500, so I was
> chasing from the beginning Sunday.
>
> My ticket looked like this:
> 1,4,7 with 2,7,12 with 1,3,8,10 with 2,10 with 4
> with 3,4,8
>
> My mix of numbers in the second leg included
> 1,2,7,10,11,12 -- would have been easy to
> restructure the ticket with a single in the last
> leg. Cosi Rosi was bugging me too because though
> I\'m not a huge fan of hers, Gomez taking the mount
> really bothered me that I shouldn\'t leave her out.
> Would have been a big ticket to throw her in but
> if I don;t get crushed Saturday, who knows? This
> game is so much about discipline and money
> management and confidence, three things I often
> lack!


With all due respect, second guessing after the fact is seldom a good thing.

We make the decisions we make at the time they need to be made.  I have a good friend who red boards like crazy. Everything is very clear after the fact.  Saying I could have done this, I should have bet that price horse, is nothing but a mind-bleep.

Out of 6 races, you \"should have\" done something else in 3 of them, which is half the sequence. Thats a lot of indecision and couldas.  You made your decisions at the time they had to be made.  You say you missed because you didn\'t \"structure well\"?? There\'s a difference between structuring well and completely missing.  Cozy Rosie wasn\'t on your ticket, you singled Malibu Pier. Thats a miss.  Yeah, if you had a bigger ticket you might have included her, but every losing multi race wager can make that claim.  If I only had a bigger ticket.  

Look forward, not backward.  I\'m not trying to do the P-Dub rip job here, just trying to be rational. You took a shot and missed, something we all do.  Going back, saying I shoulda done this or that, without the pressure of having to make a pre race decision....and more importantly without knowing the final results, is a mind bleep.

Good luck going forward.

[Dana666]

Yeah, I know, you are probably right! If it paid 10K, I wouldn\'t be second guessing so much, but 750K ain\'t chump change. I\'ll take your advice though. Thanks!

[P-Dub]

Great Dana,

I didn\'t want to see you beat yourself up over it.  I know its frustrating, all you can do is try and learn and hit the next one. I\'ve got a notebook filled with comments and situations from past wagers, they are a great resource for future wagering situations. I do enjoy reading your posts, even the ones that drive you mad!  

Thanks for taking my post in the spirit intended. Good luck the next time you dive in.