Royal Delta

[alm]

TG figures are probably the surest metrics in this sport and they establish a mindset that leads some of us to declare the fastest race ever and the fastest horse ever.  Since they are relatively new, however, they don\'t cover history and since horses change over their \'careers\' the figures are not always useful for separating the good from the great if you are only looking at one string of races.

Those of you who bother to follow my thinking know I\'ve been pretty hard on bloggers who comment on the superhorse \'du jour,\' which is not uncommon on this site.  If you are in that category you know how much I\'ve thought about what I am about to say.

This filly, Royal Delta, probably has her best races ahead of her.  If she stays healthy I believe she will earn her way into the category of great and not just good.  I don\'t know what kind of number she got yesterday, but if she was mine I would not be thinking about the BC Distaff at this point, but would put her on the path to the Classic.  

After a horrible week of near misses in all sorts of bets and disqualifications that essentially decimated my bankroll, I bet everything left in my account on a straight win bet on her in the Alabama and never doubted myself in the post parade or at any point during the race.  That she beat this field by 5 widening lengths came as no surprise.  She could have beat any horse at Saratoga by open lengths yesterday, going the distance.

Look at the Alabama a few times and you\'ll see it too.  She only ran for a quarter mile...she relaxed totally up to that point running fast enough to stay close.  If you can tell where her bottom is, you\'re a better man than I am.

In an era in which we had Rachel and Zenyatta as our \'closest to great\' runners, emerging from the pack, it seems odd to me that a third filly is stepping up to this level.  I think she\'s better than both of them and even if I am wrong, she\'s still better than anyone else right now.  This is a hell of a horse.

[miff]

\"I don\'t know what kind of number she got yesterday\"


AL,

Beyer of 97( TG 2 if JB agrees). Typically slow raw 2:03+ for Saratoga 10 f races, last quarter in 26+.

Royal Delta only one that wanted 10 f yesterday, filly needs to fill out more as she continues to wander late under stress.

Incredible amount of dead money on the two slow phony wide fig\'d St Johns River and Inglorious.


Mike

[TGJB]

St. John\'s River got an inside trip in the Oaks, hence earning a much worse figure than PP on TG. The people NOT looking at ground had her better than those looking at it. Inglorious was dead slow on ours, as you know, a total toss. Who had her fast enough, ground or no?

The race Frank mentioned where he went with me at Monmouth was the Iselin. The betting on Pleasant Prince was as bad as that on the two in in the Alabama-- he was way slow, legitimately 15-1 in that field, and he was the favorite. The horse that finished second, coming off a dead rail, made the price.

[miff]

\"Who had her fast enough, ground or no\"

JB,

Beyer(99 fig) had Inglorious last on WO poly equal to a TG \"0\", did not see Rags. Large bet at opening(80K, I was told) came in from Canada, where she \"reportedly\" worked lights out on dirt training track.

Thought she had no shot based on obvious lack of pace, she being a deep one run closer, felt It\'s Tricky had huge tactical edge and did not trust RD off poor performance off injury(Kool Aid drinker e-mailed me that RD was a toss sitting on 0-2)

Yes, TG had SJR a slow toss based on all her races.


Mike

[TGJB]

You\'re talking to the wrong Kool Aid drinkers. I would venture to say 9 out of 10 people using our sheets thought she would go forward, especially since Mott had said she missed training coming up to the last. Anyone who treats stake level 3yos with good spacing the same as other horses when looking at 0-2\'s needs to come to a few seminars or read ROTW\'s.

[miff]

As you have often said, it\'s all about personal interpretation. If RD runs up the track, the guy has the right to believe his interpretation was correct.I\'t\'s call ed being right for the wrong reason, happens often in racing, as you know.


Mike

[TGJB]

My point was not that he was wrong, it was that sheet players are not Kool Aid drinkers-- they are not as dogmatic as you seem to think, have different opinions. Back at Ragozin\'s, when a group of us used to go the track together, the arguments over patterns were fierce.

[Silver Charm]

Love these conversations!

Gonna be a good weekend of racing with the Travers and Pacific Classic!
Heres hoping Blind Luck goes in the PC!

[prist]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The race Frank mentioned where he went with me at
> Monmouth was the Iselin. The betting on Pleasant
> Prince was as bad as that on the two in in the
> Alabama-- he was way slow, legitimately 15-1 in
> that field, and he was the favorite. The horse
> that finished second, coming off a dead rail, made
> the price.

Jerry,

So you thought he he very little chance of running back to his 1\'s if you thought he was a 15/1 shot in the Iselin. In your opinion, why would it have been a wrong read to expect a 1 from PLEASANT PRINCE?

[Flighted Iron]

Top of your head(or actual stats would be better)what percentage of stakes level
3 year olds with good spacing on an 0-2 pattern X next out vs non X?

thanks,
mjs

[TGJB]

There are a lot of variables, like how big the top is, etc. But basically healthy, developing  3yos should be running at least their previous top at least every other race, and a small bounce is exactly what you usually see when healthy ones don\'t pair up. With a developing horse like RD that\'s a positive pattern, not a negative.

[TGJB]

He already had two shots to run it this year-- why this time? But let\'s say you gave him a 50/50 shot to run it (which is generous considering one of his two tries was a complete X, a bad sign for a stake horse)-- there were horses who had better tops, others around the same top. Even if he ran it he had maybe a 20% chance to win. 20% of 50% is 10%-- and that\'s giving him a better chance to fire than I did, and possibly a better chance to win if he ran it than he deserved. A total bet-against as the favorite.

A good exercise in general is to ask yourself what the percentage chance there is of a horse firing, and what the percentage chance of winning if it does, and multiply. It will help keep you off underlays.

[Flighted Iron]

Thanks for the timely response. Just curious if Mott will try her on the weeds?
Given her pedigree any thoughts?

mjs

[Halo Fire]

Since when are we listening to trainers\' press clippings? Mott said she missed some training? Think of how silly that sounds

[TGJB]

Show some respect. And look at the dates of the workouts.

For the record, he said it BEFORE not only this race, but the one she missed the works for-- the last one.