Kings Bishop

[Boscar Obarra]

no, I do not.

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Boscar,
>
> Do you remember thinking the same thing when
> Rachel lost by a neck at Churchill Downs to the
> Mott horse (Unrivaled Belle), and then again when
> she lost at 1 1/4 to the McGaughey filly?  (TGJB
> posted the same thing here, saying if UB didn\'t
> fire, and Rachel won by 7, nobody would question
> her).
>
> The point is that she did lose and so did Moe.
>
> Same story, different year.
>
> Lots of people on this board,including the host,
> insisted Rachel was the same in her 4 year old
> year, when she kept losing.  Finally, even the
> connections realized she wasn\'t and retired her.
>
>
> Not saying they should retire Uncle Moe, but what
> I am saying is that he tripped out in the race and
> got beat by a relatively mediocre sprinter in
> Caleb\'s Posse. At least RAchel lost to a future
> Eclipse Award winner.  I don\'t think we will be
> saying that about Caleb\'s Posse.

[alm]

My comments on this race are elsewhere on the site and basically I agree Uncle Mo could have used this race.  However, you\'re going to hear from Caleb\'s Posse again...this is a developing sprinter of real quality.  He had been miscast by his previous trainer, trying to stretch him out.  It\'s really no big deal, but Caleb\'s Posse was my best bet of the day...maybe they can really crank him and go for the BC Sprint.  Don\'t be surprised.

[Boscar Obarra]

So much for the bashing by amateurs.   Yeah, I know, it was only a 4 horse race, practically a morning workout.

[Silver Charm]

Physically he looks much much better than he did this Spring. Like a Real Mature horse. I doubt he would have beaten Tizway in the Met today. Crown him King if you want, I just want to see more before i start calling one of the alltime greats like so many are now.....

[jimbo66]

Boscar \"The Amateur\" Obarra,

He won a 4 horse race on a loose lead, with a slow pace, on a track with a heavy speed bias.  Settle down a bit...

Check back and repost after the Breeders Cup.

[Boscar Obarra]

I think we have an instant (tape delayed) replay of the \"Zenyatta ain\'t really a good horse\" fetish that appeared here.

 Nothing changes.

 PS  What are you going to say when the horse gets a monster fig.

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Boscar \"The Amateur\" Obarra,
>
> He won a 4 horse race on a loose lead, with a slow
> pace, on a track with a heavy speed bias.  Settle
> down a bit...
>
> Check back and repost after the Breeders Cup.

[phil23]

Let\'s do the math and see if we can speculate a fig or two here.

UM gave 0.8pts in weight to JB.  He won by 3 lengths and was 1 path wider on the turn for a total of 4 lengths.  4 lengths at 8f is approx. 2.5 pts.  So by subtraction we have UM running 1&3/4pts faster than JB, relatively.  For absolute we\'d need the variant and wind.  But just going by the horses, this is the dif.

Since JB crushed the 3rd place finisher I think it\'s reasonable to assume he paired his top of -2.75. Hard to see JB hitting a new one since he\'d just made that huge move to -2.75 .  So that would mean Mo ran a -4.5.

Which just so happens to be Tizway\'s top (assuming he paired his Met number in the Whitney...), as well as Hdg\'s (with the weight break for fillies factored in).  Of course Mo gets a 3yo weight break.  Flat Out was at -3.5 and going through the same excercise I got him beating Stay Thirsty by 2.5 pts (0.8 pts in weight and 1.75 pts in beaten lengths and ground loss).  Which means if Flat Out paired his top, Thirsty ran a 0, which fits perfectly into his range.  Actually I think maybe it was, in absolute figs, half a point slower since I\'m not sure Flat Out paired, he does like to bounce a bit, but whatever.  

So, again we have, for tops, with the weight break for 3yo and fillies in BCC factored in:
UM -5.5
TW -4.5
HdG -4.5
FO - -3.5
GoDude -2.5 (his top which he prob didn\'t eclipse today)
ST -2

Now obviously this doesn\'t take into account pattern at all.  Which of course we\'ll have to leading up to the race.  Mo last year got to his level and stayed there and seemed to like CD.  Whether he can do that again this year at a much faster absolute number, we\'ll see.   Last year Tizway bounced off his big number but this year he\'ll have way more rest coming in, although he has been sick but only briefly.  HdG seems quite consistent (she paired last year) although she\'s in a much faster range this year but they did try to take it easy on her today.  FO, if he follow\'s his pattern looks to be sitting back for his best one.  Thirsty and GoDude might be a titch slow but GoDude probably will get a 1W1W trip.

Should be a fun race.  Let\'s hope the ground crew at CD don\'t do to the rail what they have done the last two big race days there.

[miff]

If MO gets a monster fig, give an assist to track super Kozak. Just prior to Mo\'s race the track was scratched on top, making it faster than it had been all day. Mo\'s very fast raw time 1.33.82 somewhat incongruous with all other dirt races, except the stakes sprint. The following 2 dirt races, esp the Gold Cup slower than norm, raw.Track speed up all day, until after MO\'s race.

Will be very interesting to see the differences,if any, going into the Breeders Cup with TG/RAGS/BEYER.

Mike

[phil23]

Let the debate begin - Sat Beyers - Mo 118, Flat Out 107, HdG 105

[jimbo66]

Very interesting.

Uncle Mo likely to be the BC Classic favorite now, off that performance, with his reputation and Tizway being out for 60 days.  

Very tough call as to what to make of him IMO.  He had EVERYTHING his way yesterday, with the soft lead and speed favoring track, but obviously ran fast.  Quite a few folks seem to think he is a \"miler type\".  

With an extremely disappointing set of key races yesterday (as far as field size and gambling opportunities), it does look like we might get an interesting next few weeks, heading into the Breeders Cup, if they can all stay healthy.

[TGJB]

Come on, Mike, you know the track doesn\'t change speeds know matter what they do to it.

[sighthound]

I think what you can take from Uncle Mo yesterday was that he\'s still physically maturing, and he can yet move forward off what he did yesterday.  I\'d guess he was at 90%, but unfortunately yesterday didn\'t particularly tax him regarding effort - he was barely breathing by the time he got back.

[Silver Charm]

Give Pletcher a TON of CREDIT with this horse. Some smart people on this Board speculated this horse might NEVER come back and now look at him.

Breeders Cup Classic victory would be one of the ALLTIME great Training Jobs if the horse can pull it off. 7 in late August, a mile in early Oct then a Mile and One Quarter aginst the World\'s best.

Won\'t be getting any of my money but \"Here Here\" if they do it!

[miff]

Silver,


Not sure MO wouldn\'t be \"thanking\" the vets that cured/saved him.TAP had zero to do with MO returning to racing after he got ill.Super talented,fast, sound horses can be trained by just about anyone with a license.Those who have not watched what goes on each morning at the racetrack would be shocked how vanilla the whole pure training process really is.

Wonder how MO would be doing now if say, Tricky, brother Tony,Asmussen or about 50 other guys/gals were training him.

On a related subject,not buying 118 Beyer(TG neg -5) for MO. Seems Beyer did not know the surface was \"zipped\" before MO\'s race giving raw time a boost compared to the rest of the day.Still a new top fig for MO,like neg -3ish TG, but that also poses a tough question about the following two rather raw slow dirt races.Track speed all over the place on Sat, slow to faster to slower?Raw would seem to indicate that.


Mike

[TGJB]

Mike-- I can\'t wait to see Ragozin\'s BC sheets. You\'re right about the day being all over the place (though I gave Mo almost what Beyer did), so Ragozin will either a) have some figures that are WAY wrong, or b) have the day changing, in complete contradiction to a position Friedman stated firmly on their board many times. I\'m rooting for a).

If they don\'t have the track changing, either Mo has to get by far the biggest figure ever given out (and Jackson Bend one of the biggest), or they have to have the Beldame and JC Gold Cup collapsing.

My sense is that the Beyer people read this board, we\'ll see if the figures for the last 2 dirt races get changed.