saratoga tg analysis

[touchgold]

Bought the analysis today for saratoga. Wow, awful. A complete goose egg. And not even really close.

[jumpnthefire]

gee i wonder who this is lol

[touchgold]

just an unhappy customer is all. First time post here.....didnt have a lot of time, so bought the analysis. I have seen guys praise it, so, whats wrong with the opposite? No other intentions here. It was what it was.

[shanahan]

touchgold Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> just an unhappy customer is all. First time post
> here.....didnt have a lot of time, so bought the
> analysis. I have seen guys praise it, so, whats
> wrong with the opposite? No other intentions here.
> It was what it was.


TG - FWIW - I often use the anlysis if I\'m pressed for time to handicap.  However, if at all possible you need to practice with the figs -I\'d look at Thoroquick today (you can get yesterday\'s free of charge if you sign up) and see the logic and where you might agree/disagree on yesterdays Saratoga card.  The analysis is an opinion of the same data everyone can see and as is human nature, we all see it differently.  The days the analysis product is spot on are few and far between.  Pay particular attention to two things is my advice:
1.  Always read the ROTW, it\'s a great learning tool.
2.  Read the board.  There are some great handicappers here whose opinion I value.

[drbillym]

When you don\'t have time, don\'t bet.  Diuretic betting-piss your money away.  Using any service, over time, will result in losses - too many races.  Shanahan\'s advice is good.  And it would be even be better if you are in the area and could make the Saratoga seminars next weekend.  I greatly look forward to meeting Michael D. and Richiebee!

[touchgold]

I understand. Just had much higher hopes for such a quality card.

[miff]

Anyone can have a bad day picking, who hasn\'t?.The Travers analysis horrible, though. Ruler On Ice, a garbage can that got lucky in a wet Belmont?, Raison D\'Etat(phony wide,hung bad, lugging in last, eligible for 1x? a future what??)

The winner, ST, a Saratoga horse for course beast, training lights out, no chance off some inane big \"top\" theory??.

Flashpoint major diappointment on a live rail, speed track despite pressure. MO a no excuse loss off a perfect set up in spite of layoff, tough read going forward.


Mike

[JR]

The analysis is a consistently poor product. Don\'t know if it\'s because of the numbers or the interpretation of the numbers but don\'t waste your money on it.

[alm]

Mike

Yesterday was a tough day period.  I hit some good stuff early, but fell out of bed (mostly with my betting, not selections) late.  A sister-kissing day; broke even.

However, reading MO was easy for me...in the hands of any other trainer, who operates with lower aspirations than does TAP, this horse wins his first off a layoff...why?  Because only an egocentric idiot would bring the horse back in a graded stakes.  Even Kelso used allowance races to tune up.

My best handicapping of the day involved Caleb\'s Posse.  I singled him in horizontals.  I think I recognized - one race before the rest of the crowd - that this is a late closing sprinter of legitimate quality and speed, in the hands of a legitimate trainer.  He\'s not some miler who caught a speed duel and got lucky.  Not that he would have beaten MO in that one\'s second off a layoff.  He wouldn\'t have.

My biggest mistake of the day was leaving Stay Thirsty off my horizontals, going for a big payoff and not wanting a saver.  I can\'t remember very many horses who have won the long Saratoga races from the outside and thought he was a reasonable bet against.  

Broke my cardinal rule: NEVER leave TAP off a horizontal bet.  Never.  I had that Rattlesnake POS and would have made quite a lot for the day if he got up.  My bad.

All in all, I am glad they are dark today.  Plan to regroup at Calder, of all places.

[miff]

\"My best handicapping of the day involved Caleb\'s Posse. I singled him in horizontals\"


Al,

The Kool Aid drinkers will be upset with you. How could you dare stand with a horse off a new top and kinda short rest. Just because he was 2 for 2 at the very tricky 7f distance and ran the race of his life at the Spa, with an obvious pace war up front,sheez! Thought the track was playing against him yesterday and I stood with MO after figuring Flashpont would have to deal with Poisidon Warrior. Right church, wrong pew.

Loved MO\'s probable dynamics and stood with him all around off the fairly obvious set up I thought he would get. Figured MO home when he circled the warring leaders.


Good Luck

Mike

[mgochis]

I agree with JR. It\'s a waste of money

[Rick]

JR Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The analysis is a consistently poor product. Don\'t
> know if it\'s because of the numbers or the
> interpretation of the numbers but don\'t waste your
> money on it.

I found it helpful for a very brief period. It didn\'t make me money but it did open me up to different ways of thinking which have helped. Too many scratches come into play.

[TGJB]

Miff-- feel free to offer the anti-sheet opinions before the races, This is classic red-boarding.

I did the analysis for Saratoga yesterday, and bet the races pretty much the same way (and with both hands). With the same results. But if anyone wants to check how the analysis does, we put all of them up the next day in the Red Board Room. Pretty sure we\'re the only one that does that, both with data and opinions.

[miff]

\"Miff-- feel free to offer the anti-sheet opinions before the races, This is classic red-boarding\'


JB,

Several on this board knew my opinions before the races.I never result and I bet accordingly with noth hands. Uncle Mo was about $30k for me.


Mike

[bellsbendboy]

Appears clear you have no love for the \"egocentric idiot\" but he is the best layoff trainer on the planet.  As with any conditioner, their best attribute is the  quality of stock in the barn and Pletcher is in a class by himself.  

\"Mo\" had been outworking stakeswinners easily and wins clear if he does not drop a hind shoe and get in for a sixteenth under the boys left handed stick!

As for bringing Mo back in an allowance what sort of conditions did you have in mind? bbb