BC Classic

[covelj70]

I know it\'s still a tad early to start all of this but I am curious as to people\'s thoughts about the Classic.

It strikes me that 2 of the contenders stand out while most/all of the others can be eliminated.

The filly and Flat Out are the two that seem to have the figures without the question marks.

Tizway has the figures but is coming off the layoff and didn\'t like the CD track last year which is a huge issue for me.  Alot of horses just don\'t run their races on this surface and he had no excuses last year.

Mo is coming off a huge number, is training like he might bounce (when they can\'t get them to slow down in the morning after a huge number, that\'s a bad sign) and is a big question mark at the distance.

Stay Thirsty has never run as fast as the top two and although I don\'t know if THAS\'s last was fast enough, if it was, he\'s liable to bounce like the last time he ran the big number.

the Euro has never been on the dirt and I am sure he doesn\'t have the figure power but I will be loathe to throw him out given the potential to jump up first time Lasix and the fact that the CD dirt track is kindest of all dirt tracks to turf horses trying to run on the turf (long list there but Animal Kingdom obivious the most recent example).

I don\'t believe any of the others have ever run fast enough to contend for the top spot but I haven\'t seen all of the last figures for all of them so only JB will know this for sure.

What do people think?

[sixmoreouts]

It\'s never too early to discuss stuff like this!

While I agree that Uncle Mo is a huge question mark at the distance, I would rate HDG at least a small question mark at the same.  I say that not having her sheet (and the DelCap figure) fresh in my mind. But I am certain that HDG\'s trainer and owner would both be more confident if the BC Classic were run at 1 1/8 as opposed to 1 1/4. Also  gnawing at me just a little is HDG\'s less-than-stellar run in last year\'s Ladies Classic at CD.  Though that last bit of negativism could probably be directed at Flat Out as well.  But he wouldn\'t appear to have distance questions as part of the package.  

THAS may prove to be a trickier read.  I\'d almost insist on him being able to bounce and still win before I\'d play him on top.  And I strongly doubt that will be the case given some of the other fast ones in here.  I thought the rail on PA Derby day was about as golden as a rail can get.  THAS, as I recall, was in the two-path throughout, which could be construed as a plus.  But he was also close to the pace on a day when the only ones making up meaningful late ground were those few who could make their move up the fence. All things considered, I think his last race was probably at least a little bias-aided.  

In any event, if a review of the sheets led me to think the BC Classic was a tossup between HDG and Flat Out, I know who I\'d be betting to win.

[Silver Charm]

This race WILL NOT be won by a three year old. THAS has probably the best chance. Doubt his Trainer will push to Win with next year in mind.....

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

Of course I have to see the final sheets of all the contenders in all the races to structure a bet (especially sequential bets like pick-4s).  However, at this point, my view would be that only 4 horses are reasonably capable of winning the Classic and going 4 deep there locks up the race. Havre de Grace, Flat Out, Uncle Moe and Tizway are the fast horses, the rest are reaches.  I would be inclined to go 4-deep, but weight the ticket to Havre de Grace and Flat Out, as they are consistently fast, where Mo may be sitting on bounce and Tizway may not like the track and wasn\'t meant to come into the race this fresh.  

Forget about the Euro.  IMHO, your point about CD being OK for turf/poly horses is ONLY true when the track is drying out or cuppy.  On the standard dirt track at CD, the poly/grass are just as lousy as they are on other dirt tracks.

Everything to be \"reconsidered\" if the idiot track crew at CD come up with a dead rail again for the Breeders Cup............

[streetbull]

Silver Charm, I respect your opinions on this board. Can you elaborate as to your reasons that a 3 year colt won\'t win this race??

Proud Truth and Cat Thief won the BC Classic in their 3 year old seasons.

I haven\'t looked into this race in depth but by glancing at some of the major contenders, IMHO, here are some of my early thoughts..

The filly, Blind Luck is more suited than HDG at the Classic distance, but she is out for the year...HDG has had a long campaign and some tough races..

Older horses..

The best races this year has been Tizway\'s Met Mile (1:32.4) but Tizway will have to carry 10 lbs more for the Classic and will have to run 2 turns and Tizway is unproven at the distance.

Game on Dude ran a huge race in the Goodwood at SA. Best energy race this year.  Baffert has prepped Game on Dude like Silver Charm in the Santa Anita Derby, in fact, almost running identical fractions.  I think Baffert will have the jockey take back in the Classic, plus Game on Dude won the Big Cap at SA..Some negatives are that SA is more favorable to early speed whereas Churchill runs more sustained...

I haven\'t seen the figures for Flat Out and Stay Thirsty, at first glance, they seem light on figures..

3 year olds...

Uncle MO...seems healthy now and fresh!!!  Next race will be 3rd out, great Kelso race and will improved but has not run 2 turn and is unproven at 1 1/8 and beyond, but who am I to question Pletcher...

[covelj70]

Street Bull,

Flat Out is most definitely not light on the figures.

His only realtively bad number in the last 6 months came on a dead rail

Otherwise, he has been the mark of consistency putting up big numbers, assuming his last was around a pair.

Not saying this horse has to win or anything but just refuting the point that he\'s light on figures.

Stay Thirsty is relatively light on the figures compared to the big ones in here

[covelj70]

Jimbo, you bring up a good point about a certain kind of CD track (i.e. drying out and cuppy) being better for turf/poly horses.

I always think back to Barabro who was really a turf horse that was good enough to run that well on the dirt as another example of a \"turf\" horse running well at CD but he had proven himself on other dirt tracks before that.

The others I point to, Super Saver, Animal Kingdom, Pioneer of the Nile, all did their thing on wet or drying out tracks

[Silver Charm]

Street, this is a light bunch of 3YO. Probably have seen ONE Big # and thats gonna be Mo in his last race. Other than that race which wasnt a Route they just arent ready for Prime Time. Maybe Honor and Serve is in with a run but I doubt that the trainer will have him that cranked up. Its just not his style.

Not that there are a bunch a Killers in the Older Division but they will tougher and more seasoned.

[Lost Cause]

What\'s up Cov,
By process of elimination i\'ll end up on Awesome Gem..stop laughing..this horse has seemed to find the fountain of youth this year and is running really well.  The distance won\'t be a problem and his last was pretty impressive coming wide from way back to close quickly against game on dude..I may be reaching with an 8 year old with second tier figs but the top tier all seem to have some issue and not enough price to justify a play on them..So i\'ll be looking at the old timer really hard at a big price unless I can find something else when the sheets come out..

Starting to get antsy..

[sixmoreouts]

No BC for Awesome Gem.  

http://www.drf.com/news/awesome-gem-miss-breeders-cup

[Lost Cause]

Crap!!!..Thanks for leting me know..Back to the drawing board..

[bellsbendboy]

Silver, the theory that Mott will not have his colt cranked up for a $5 million dollar race does not hold much water.  bbb

[Silver Charm]

BBB, he just doesnt push them that hard. I dont mean to imply that the horse will not be fit. If he is not fit he wont run.


The horse needs to probably get a litle better and that will come over time.....not a \"force the issue\" schedule because of a $5M race.

[phil23]

One man\'s opinion for the Morning Line (to 120%):

Uncle Mo   3
TIZWAY           5
HAVRE DE GRACE   4
FLAT OUT   6
SO YOU THINK   9
GAME ON DUDE   12
Stay Thirsty   15
TH&S           15
Ruler On Ice   25
Rattl Bridge   35
Prayer 4 Relief   40
DROSSELMEYER   50
HEADACHE   60
ICE BOX           100

The top 4 are the top 4 and as such tough to get by.  Maybe Ruler on Ice (right pace scenario, should have moved fwd big time fig wise in last after the lbs to TH&S, and  gets 3yo weight break) if he drifts up to some crazy number like 40\'s.

[Wrongly]

Aidan O’Brien entered So You Think in the BC Classic and did not cross entered him in the Turf.  Timeform of 129 in Prince of Whales and Coral Eclipse.  Although the 1 1/4 suits this horse, I\'ll guess that he will come up soft on TG\'s and not crazy about this one running for the 3rd time in 34 days.  That said I do agree with CD being kind to turf horses.  Einstein quickly comes to mind.  Lots of speed looks to set up well for a horse like Flat Out.  Looking forward to seeing the numbers.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/65747/so-you-think-pre-entered-in-bc-classic