BC pre-entry package?

[mlnolan00]

TG Team: Will you guys be selling a BC pre-entries package like usual this year?

[TGAB]

Yes, we\'ll have more details shortly.

[phil23]

Any word on the cost structure for this year yet?  Also, do you think you\'ll have the figs up Wednesday night (fields released at 10am Wed) or will it be Thursday?  Thanks.

[TGAB]

The cost structure will be similar to last year but we should have specifics Tuesday at some point, probably later in the day.

Barring something unforeseen, I\'d say Wednesday evening. We\'re suppose to get the entry file sometime between at 10am and 12pm and then, of course, we\'ll look at the entries and make sure we have everything we need, the relevant data, and then generate the output file.

[phil23]

Looks like one of the euro news boys has jumped the gun.  Gotta love it.  Here\'s the link for the Pre Entries:

http://www.theirishfield.ie/site/images/articlefiles/13196327692011preentries.pdf

[phil23]

Biggest surprise (although they were leaning this way since the Vosburg), Trappe Shot not even entered in the Sprint.  If he\'s right, his figs lay over the DM field.  Also a little surprised Baffert didn\'t cross enter Secret Circle in Juvi too.  I guess since he\'s owned by Pegram too (just like Drill), they just want to win both races.  But Juvi Sprint is NOT graded, which doesn\'t help Secret Circle next year.  Might also say something about BB\'s confidence level in Drill.  Euroears and Factor heading to different races is quite understandable since they both do it on the front end.  Never believed he\'d run them head to head, would have made no sense.

[phil23]

Trappe Shot is in the Sprint.  It was a clerical error by BC, leaving him off.  1st pref is DM.

[MonmouthGuy]

The most exciting/surprising thing for me was Gio Ponti first preference in the Classic. I love the idea of running him in this spot to end his career but would be surprised to see him there.

[Wrongly]

Wouldn\'t waste much time handicapping Gio Ponti in the Classic.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/65785/gio-ponti-its-tricky-in-final-bc-works

[Lost Cause]

I would have liked to see him in the classic on dirt also. wide , Wide open race there to me while Goldikova is probably going to beat Gio again in the mile..

[jimbo66]

Just curious,

Are you guys looking at the figures at all when you say Gio Pionti would have a shot in the \"wide open Classic\"?  

He would have zero shot.  At least he has some shot in the Mile.  Of course Goldikova has to be beat, but his figs are a fit in the race.

[Lost Cause]

I am waiting to get it next week or else i\'m going to go cross eyed and nuts guessing who runs..
Thought process is that it looks like there are a lot of early runners in there and a lot who are suspect at the distance, Gio is neither.  He also has never been on conventional dirt before so there is the possibility of an explosion on dirt especially since he has dirt breeding..It\'s not like he was running bad on turf and poly and this does not seem like a strong classic field.

[jimbo66]

Lost,

Revisit this post after you look at the sheets.

First off, I don\'t see the same big group of early runners that you see.  I am guessing Game on Dude on the lead, tracked by Uncle Moe and To Honor and Serve, with Havre de Grace somewhere just behind them.  There is no big speed duel to handicap here.

Gio Pionti is slow and he is a six year old.  Expecting some 3 or 4 point top at 6 has to be something like 20-1 to happen and even if he gets it, it doesn\'t mean he wins.  It means he is a contender, with maybe a 1 in 4 shot to win.  That makes him 80-1 in my book.

He likely isn\'t running in the Classic, but if he did, you weren\'t getting 80-1.

You want to handicap a couple point move up from a fall 3 year old like To Honor and Serve, who figures 12-1 or better, then you are talking realistic.

Looks to me like the filly and Flat Out are the most likely winners, with Uncle Moe having a \"puncher\'s chance\" based on the big figure, but a bet against as the favorite, trying the classic distance for the first time.  To Honor and Serve is interesting, but wish he was training better.

[phil23]

Jimbo, that\'s a very succinct and pretty accurate summation for the Classic in your last 2 sentences.  I pretty much agree, with maybe the exception that Mo didn\'t bounce last yr off his big figs, although this one is more isolated and of course much lower.  Concur on the pace scenario as well, which is a point most seem to be missing.  Also agree on TH&S.  After seeing his sheet in front of me, boy he does look like he could move another 2pts, perfectly replicating his pattern of 4 late races last yr and still be well within his 2-3yr old development.  This business about his wearing the cup blinker of course is, as you say, somewhat concerning.  As for SYT, well Goldikova seems to move up 2-3 every year on lasix, so why not him, and O\'Brien says he is going to run on it.  Of course High Chapperal does not exactly scream dirt (just the opposite in fact, very limited sample size however).  Mind you she is not running her 3rd race in a month either.  Although he did ok on that patter last yr.

[covelj70]

Jimbo, you and I are on the same page on the Classic but what do you make of Ruler on Ice?

I was surprised when I saw his fig last night.  Big number.  Do we assume he\'s going to bounce off the number?  If not, he\'s right there for a piece.

Very much agree though that the winner is obviously the filly (who is actually underrated based on her historically high and consistent figures) or Flat Out.