Flat Out

[covelj70]

Question for Jimbo or others who like Flat Out.

How do we explain away that his worst race figure wise this year was at Churchill.

I like this horse for the Classic as I\'ve mentioned before but I\'m afraid that maybe that race suggests he doesn\'t like the surface unless someone can tell me something else that was going on with him that day or at that time of the year?

He came right back after that to run a big figure at Belmont so I don\'t think we could argue that he was in bad form at the time.

Also, how worried should I be that he hasn\'t been the 1 1/4 around 2 turns?

Again, I like him here, I am just trying to punch holes in my own thesis to make sure I didn\'t just fall in love with him for this race before I considered all of the issues.

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

I don\'t think we can discount that he might not run his best at Churchill.  If he had a Churchill affinity, I would make him clearly the horse to beat.  

Right now, I have him \"co-horse to beat\" with Havre de Grace and am leaning toward the filly as my likely key based on a combination of better tractability and the Churchill factor.

But both go on multi-race tickets.

[Wrongly]

Jim

Here\'s the Stephen Foster - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx4NipOk0-Q

Maybe someone can comment on how the track was playing that day but it looks to me that Lanerie makes the decision to stay on the rail while most of the other riders went wide on the turn.  Dead rail that day?  Can\'t say that the horse doesn\'t like the surface from that race.

I questioned his love for a mile and a quarter as well, but I love these Flatter colts.  The son of AP Indy, who placed in 5 of his 6 lifetime starts but his career was cut short by a fractured cannon bone after finishing 3rd to Perfect Drift in the Washington Park Handicap (G2) at Arlington Park.  Won a 3-year old 9F allowance race by over 11 lengths.

[covelj70]

thank you both for the thoughts, very helpful

agree that we can\'t completely toss him off of that one bad CD effort but if the filly breezes well over Churchill on Monday, I think she\'s the one to beat.

I am very glad that she\'s going to get a breeze over the track on Monday.

[twoshoes]

Covel -

I had a dead rail that day (subjective as my methods may be) and he was glued to it. It served me well as I played him out of it solely for that reason.

[covelj70]

Twoshoes,

That\'s incredibly helpful. Thank you so much.

[jefflowe]

I wonder the same thing about Flat Out and Churchill. He has had fairly serious foot problems. He breezed on the Churchill turf this summer before the Suburban and then started working on the dirt once he got to Monmouth.  Maybe he\'s a lot better on the Eastern tracks (and I also don\'t discount the possibility of a speed bias on Stephen Foster day).

[miff]

Guys,

Pretty reliable data had Foster day at CD as honest for both running styles and paths.Flat out is 0-2 at CD,never hit the board but is a better horse now and has run well/won at multiple tracks in his career.His knock is that he will have to run past Uncle MO, HDG and THAS, as all of those will most likely be in front of him most of the way.


Mike

[jbelfior]

SF surface was drying out anti-speed. The rest of the earlier card was speed favoring. Normally the rail under those circumstances becomes like quick sand.


 No way a horse like Pool Play wins under normal circumstances. Mission Impazible was also wide that day and has not run back to that effort since.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Halo Fire]

covelj70,

I\'m assuming FL\'s work answered your question.

[Wrongly]

\"He had a bad trip the first time he ran here when he was a two-year-old,\" Dickey explained. \"In the (Grade 1) Stephen Foster (Handicap), that was not a bad race. He was trapped down on the inside and couldn\'t get out. All the others (that finished in front of him) came down the middle of the track. He made a good move, but the rail was dead that day.\"

[phil23]

If we give him the pass on the X race on Foster Day, that gives him three in a row that were great.  Then his JCGCup is slightly more than a point lower.  Does anyone see this as a potential 0/2/X?

[Funny Cide]

He looked like a monster on the track yesterday.  Monster.  With HDG and Mo not working so well, I think Flat Out is the horse to beat.  Game On Dude also worked fantastic but did so in CA, not over the Churchill surface.

[sekrah]

He did not draw well IMO.

[spa]

I think your question about Flat Out isn\'t the surface,but rather,his feet?