in some races, jockeys will choose to rate their horses well behind slow paces. the most obvious examples of this tactic are Santos and Samyn. some jockeys will not chose to use this tactic. this smarter group of jockeys include Bailey and Velazquez. in the aggregate, you will find that slower races do indeed produce slower times, simply because some jockeys have a game plan going in; they want to come from off the pace, regardless of how fast or slow they are running. if all jockeys had the pace instinct of Bailey, pace would not influence the final time of horse races. unfortunately, all jockeys do not have this instinct. of course, there are exceptions. i think Balto Star set a track record last month over at Mth after setting a slow pace in a turf marathon. i have been looking at this subject for a number of years now, and i am quite confident in my conclusions. i wish i had documented my findings over the years, but i think any handicapper could do the work quite easily........ funny how everybody remembers the festin race. i was in the top row at the far left side of the Belmont grandstand that day, and had a great view of festin while he swept by the field. think there was another big time closer in that race, maybe Strike the Gold? anyway, i always liked festin, and remember being quite upset when he won without my money...
as for TMW, i do think he was helped along by the ultra quick SAR strip and the fast pace on travers day, and i would be very suprised if he ever came within three or four points of his travers # while running ten furlongs without the same ideal conditions.
