Has Borel been working Rattlesnake Bridge this week? I don\'t think so. McLaughlin shipped in late. That\'s the only real detriment to using Borel as far I can foretell. Calvin giveth and Calvin taketh away but he does know Churchill. The detriment is the lack of an intuitive feel for the horse borne of experience and that would be a detriment for any new jock-horse combination,and one obviously overcome many a time.
As far as Rattlesnake Bridge\'s line there\'s nothing wrong with it. Indeed, five tops, two paired-tops, it\'s damn near perfect. And look at the tops, small,bite-size steps forward, positive steps least likely to incur a bounce and they haven\'t. But Rattlesnake Bridge\'s pair-ups, while not bounces, do represent stopping points. So inasfar as looking at development we can say Rattlesnake stalled a bit both in April-June and August-September, improving 4-1/2 points overall, roughly the amount of development for typical Tapit racers to-date from two through four. The pair-ups denote stopping levels and development gets them beyond, not conditioning. Presumably there were in top shape to hit the levels in the first place. That improvement suggests that Rattlesnake Bridge may be tapped out in terms of having another move in him at this time. And while stakes-quality runners can be freaks,in a good sense, surprisingly often their development mirrors the amount bequeathed by the sire (TGI) just at a faster level than their more mortal siblings. Look in the ROTW archives. You\'ll be surprised, or at least I was, at frequency with which this occurs.
That said, you get no argument from me as to keying this colt at 30-1. Another indicator of improved form is shorter cycles. And note the paired 0s, faster than the 4s occurred in narrower time frame and time needed to get by is a week shorter in this spot. So, good timing, strong pattern, healthy horse, bred to like it wet or dry, good post, good jock, a bit of weight, top players that just may be over the top (but are fast)--Thoro-Pattern gives this guy a 16% chance of running a new top, -1 or better. At say 10% chance to win (high), .16 * .1 = .016 which translates to about 60-1, an underlay to win but would probably be longer underneath and would certainly help produce boxcars in any spot, first through fifth. And a -2 would ratchet those percentages and odds up to a far greater likelihood.
Equine alchemy, these are the days for it or at least to dream about it somewhat plausibly. Can anyone say Arcangues?
