Perfect Shirl

[Rick B.]

JimP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think everyone is being too hard on Ace. Maybe
> someone at TG should just address the question
> straightup. It might be helpful for all of us to
> hear the rationale for excluding PS from the
> analysis. I haven\'t rechecked but I recall that PS
> had a big last race figure. So instead of all the
> redboarding venom maybe an explanation of the
> thinking of the analysis writer would be more
> productive.

It would have been a great thing to have *before* the race...not much use afterwards, unless it is your position that we will one day get the same exact mix of the type of horses that showed up for the race on Friday.
 
Ace was indulging in the distasteful practice of \"Ha Ha, I had it, you didn\'t, I\'m Smarter Than You\". There is a very good reason redboarders are looked at as the parasites of horseracing. As richeebee pointed out, the guy hadn\'t contributed a thing here in 8 years, so that generated the red flag right there; please don\'t encourage this guy.

[JimP]

Perhaps you\'re correct about Ace\'s intent. On the other hand, I understood that JB created the Redboard Room precisely because he thought it would be instructive for us to look at past races. Regardless of his motives for doing so, Ace seems to have raised an interesting question. I think I might learn something by hearing a response from TG on this particular race.

[TGJB]

Re Perfect Shirl-- with a couple of hundred horses entered (some double entered,and fitting differently in each race) I can\'t analyze and write all of them between pre-entry and the actual draw, after which the seminar has to go up pretty soon. The criteria I used was a) horses I thought were contenders, b) horses the public thought were contenders. PS wasn\'t in either category-- my read was that she was going to bounce off the 4 point top, and that would have been my comment. All this was exactly my reasoning with Dean\'s Kitten as well.

[miff]

There probably wasn\'t one horse that ran on the two day BC card that you can\'t \"back into\" if you look deep enough after the fact.PS is a confirmed common slug, way over matched going in,got lucky when most of the field failed to fire on a turf course which was playing on the deep and slow side.Strangely,Afield lamented BEFORE the race that PS hated that deep type of softish turf as her pp\'s also indicated.

Props to Ace, hopefully you will stay in the pools and give all of us that got carried out a shot to get our money back.


Mike

[TGJB]

Now, now. No need to begrudge the guy the hit.

I don\'t agree PS is a \"slug\", but my guess is you\'re right about the fast ones not firing. Stacelita definitely-- I actually found out Chad Brown was asked by one of the racing networks whether she had been treated with antibiotics, and wouldn\'t answer. I knew that going in, and that she hadn\'t worked, and used her anyway. (Also heard a rumor Trappe Shot was sore, but you hear tons of rumors when everyone is milling around at the BC, and ever since every living human told me Orientate was dead lame before he won, I\'ve taken them with a grain of salt. This is one year it definitely would have helped if I had listened).

[miff]

Not at all JB,said props to the guy.I can\'t have PS off those pp\'s against that group if they run the race 100 times.

An absolute common slug in my world.Had not won in 6 starts this year against allowance and grade 3 types, had one ground loaded fig in last against much lesser on a brick course and was the second least accomplished in the race, career wise.

....of course she won.


Mike

[TGJB]

Almost enough to make one reconsider one\'s position about \"ground loaded\" figures...

[miff]

...touche\' A fellow Tg player and I bet on the fig for Giant Oak.Take a guess what fig I came up with in advance!

[TGJB]

I had a huge 1-5 box in the Marathon. Of all the horses to beat me-- take a look at the ROTW for last year\'s Haskell, Travers and Pa Derby. I think I bet that SOB in all three.

Likewise the FM Sprint. I tried to get everybody I knew to buy Musical Romance early last year for 200k. 2-3-4 finishers were very good for me, to say nothing of my share of Her Smile\'s winnings. And it was all ground-- HS was one of several wide Johnny V rides. (Sidney\'s Candy was inexcusable).

[miff]

Actually wide was reportedly where the better footing was, especially on Saturday.The inside described by riders/analyst on horseback as sticky/gummy 1,2 paths.

Preliminary track profile indicates kinda negative speed for both days but not a dead rail. Extra credit to Game On Dude who\'s fig will not do justice to his performance.

Obviously Hansen will be at least a couple of points slower than Union Rags which is not phony wide yet earned in the better path.

[TGJB]

As you will see when we post the figures, inside was fine both days, at least on dirt. I\'m going to check the grass.

[MonmouthGuy]

LOL on Afleet Again.  I flushed a lot of money down the drain on that horse over the last two years and figured that if you weren\'t on him here, he had no shot.

[TGJB]

You took it better than I did.

[MonmouthGuy]

That\'s because he still maintains some good will for me for lighting up the bottom of the Travers super last year. I eventually stopped betting him on top and just keyed him on the bottom of exotics. Used him under your logical 4 (boxed)in the BC Marathon in 3 and 4 hole.  I thought the data was great for the BCC despite some poor structuring of bets by yours truly.

[JR]

Post mortem analysis is very useful. I would guess that\'s the whole idea behind the Redboard.