Contention Deep, Powder Dry

[richiebee]

Once again missed the Friday proceedings due to work commitments and my
aversion to betting on races I am unable to watch live. Can\'t help but thinking
that BC will eventually go to a format where a couple of the BC races are run
at twilight/night on Friday and the bulk of the races go on Saturday.

The highlights of the Friday card were a couple of longshots, a sharp
performance by Royal Delta giving Bill Mott his fourth win in now is what
called the BC Ladies, and a blatant F/M Turf redboard (repeated in a second
string, no less) by a poster last heard from in 2003...

As some have mentioned, seems like the best wagering opportunities Saturday
might be offered by the four race sequence starting with race 4, the Juvie
Turf, where there should be no clear favorite and the potential for chaos. A
lot of the Euros will be trying two turns and/or the mile distance for
the first time. I\'ll spread madly here, using the colts coming out of the
Bourbon at Keeneland, some Euros, and Shkspeare Shaliyah, who has never run
poorly.

The next 2 races are similar in that the defending champions, Big Drama and
Chamberlain Bridge, return in the Sprint and Turf Sprint hoping to retain their
titles; neither one comes into their races in the top form they were in last
year. To me Big Drama is a toss, will be looking at logical contenders Euroears
(how many BC Sprints has Baffert won?), NYB slow rat Giant Ryan, the
incredibly versatile Amazombie and Jackson Bend.

Turf Sprint: Will be using the defending champ, though he will have to get a
magical trip from post 14. Also will be using all the 5 furlong specialists:
Perfect Officer, California Flag, Regally Ready and Havelock in a race where
it is not enough to merely be fast.

My strongest opinion in the sequence is in the Dirt Mile, where Caleb\'s Posse
has been very effective in his one turn races and should get a decent set up;
the only factor curbing my enthusiasm for CP is that, like Stay Thirsty, he
has been faster at Saratoga than anywhere else. Also including The Factor,
Wilburn and Trappe Shot.

Dont know whether to throw them all in for a $.50 P4 or to make $1 P3s
starting in races 4 and 5.

Envious of those enjoying the proceedings live, but its not the worst weekend
to be Occupying Living Room Downs. Besides the BC races, there is the cant
possibly-live-up-to the hype LSU/Alabama game (moved to prime time so as not
to conflict with BC, hah) and a good slate of NFL games on Sunday (Jets/Bills,
Giants/Pats and Ravens/Steelers).

[MonmouthGuy]

Great read.  I would encourage a second look at Force Freeze in the sprint.  His last two should have him right there and should be a big price.

[richiebee]

MG:

With regards to Force Freeze, the number power is certainly there and the odds
will be attractive. My knock on him might be the \"bo\" designation in his last
two tries.

Good luck today.

[Wrongly]

Richee

Loving Living Room Downs today, no lines to wait in for beer, no one blowing smoke at you, no having to teach someone how to use the self bet machines so they get the heck out of your way.  But a last, no crowd cheering as the horses charge towards the wire, and sadly no dressed up bettys parading by.

Wagering opportunities Saturday; couldn\'t agree more about the Juvie Turf, would be very easy to go 6 deep in that race and not catch the winner.  Many people I have spoken with are going to take a shot against Goldikova today but I won\'t be one of them.  I feel she 75% or better to win that race.  Union Rags on the other hand might be the same price come post time and I have to think he only has a 30-35% chance to win the Juvie.

I\'m don\'t normally play a pick 6 but I tend to feel that this one might be reached with a smallish (2x3x4x6x1x1) $288 ticket, rolling the dice with singles on Goldikova and Flat Out.  I\'m also going to swing for the fences and play some trifectas tossing Uncle Mo and Havre De Grace.  Havre De Grace looks like she\'s regressing to me and if it were a different trainer from Larry Jones I think most would be plotting against her in this spot.  Uncle Mo, just can\'t see him finishing ITM here, far more likely he spits the bit in the stretch.  What would a FO, ST, THS trifecta pay or a THS, ROI, FO pay?  

Best of Luck to everyone today!

[number5858]

Enjoyed the post richiebee. Here are some ones I am going to be watching today:

Marathon: pass. Would like to see more races carded at the distance though.

Juvenile Turf: chaotic, a lot could win, but I am looking at Farraaj since trainer R. Varrian did well yesterday with Nahrain, and I like 10-1 ML, but also playing the son of High Chapparal 10-1 ML Lucky Chappy

Sprint: playing against Big Drama and with Amazombie and Euroears. Jackson Bend certainly can be in there, but think he is better at 7F.

Turf Sprint: many could win. will be using the same as yours.

Dirt Mile: on the same four, but different order plus Tapizar and Jersey Town underneath. Will be playing a Wilburn + Trappe Shot over Tapizar + Jersey Town exacta with a small reverse.

Turf: very big on Sea Moon. Not many horses are cutting back in distance to 12F, and we all know his trainer is top notch. Two previous BC turf winners came out of the same prep race. Only 4-1 ML, but has a big chance.

Juvenile: Many could win, but I am looking at Alpha with Gomez to be able to relax and have a good chance. Will also use Hansen. Prefer the longer odds with these two, but you have to use Union Rags.

Mile: My horse is Courageous Cat using the Bill Mott and CD angle. Have to include Goldikova. She may have lost a step, but I have to think she will be right there.

Classic: As a long time To Honor And Serve fan, I will be using him as my key, but acknowledge that others may be better. Avoiding Mo. Until Mo wins at 1 1/4, I am not buying it. Going for a score with THAS, Havre De Grace, and Rattlesnake Bridge (Calvin sure looked good on the rail yesterday). So You Think is a scary horse. I may not win a dime, but I am going to have fun doing it and am using risk capital.

[drbillym]

First two races indicate fast rail, which should help Birdrun in the Marathon, euroears, and Game on Dude.  We\'ll see-good luck everyone.

[Michael D.]

well, I walked out of work with no regrets, but found little to wager on yesterday, so my powder is dry as well.

have a few thoughts today.

in the Marathon, I have to respect the negative 1/2\'s from AU Miner at the longer distances. like Borel in the spot as well. I will also use Pleasant Prince, as this AP Indy line improves a bunch from 3 to 4, and the figure last might be legit. bred to go long. use AU and PP.

juvy turf - trip is crucial in this spot. a good amount of speed signed up, much of it outside. from the 1 hole, Javier should sit behind the speed 1w for most of the running and look for a hole at the top of the stretch. Fantastic Song is very well bred and showed a strong turn of foot first out. any one of the Euros could pop with first lasix, but I\'m having a tough time figuring those guys out. key Fantastic Song (20-1).

sprint - keyed Hamazing Destiny last year, and I\'ll come back with the same pick this year. very solid \'0\' going a furlong longer than he wants first out, then a bounce on short rest. toss the poly race, and a return to the negative 2.5 lvl going 6f at CD is not out of the question. should save most of the ground. key HD (10-1).

[BB]

Taking a shot in the juvy turf with Excaper, to win, and over and under 3 others.

[Michael D.]

BB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Taking a shot in the juvy turf with Excaper, to
> win, and over and under 3 others.


beautiful pick Bob. hope you nailed that one. what did you like about him?

[BB]

Thanks. Small bet. Didn\'t cash. A poster here (who is at CD) will not believe I did not use any of the Irish ones running 1st, 3rd and 4th.

The one Turf fig was competitive (3rd best, I think), and in that race Excaper did all the running and got caught late by Finale. Had speed and figured to have a better chance of avoiding trouble. I also confess to a weakness for girl jocks who can get dissed at the windows sometimes.

[BB]

Richiebee, hope that Wrote was one of the Euros you used and that the cat wasn\'t ridden too hard down the stretch of the Dirt Mile at LRD!

[jumpnthefire]

playing the pick 4 here to close to call so im going  all/Crusade,Hansen,Alpha/Get Stormy,Byword,Compliance Officer/Havre De Grace,To Honor and Serve .... Good luck all!

[richiebee]

Thanks BB.

Suffice to say High Chaparral is my new favorite euro sire.

Caleb\'s incredibly efficient in one turn races, and the 2 turn Indiana prep
for this looks kind of ingenious now

[Michael D.]

fine call on the Posse there Richie. a powerful one-turn colt indeed. hope you\'ve been stringing these picks together.

[BB]

Good to hear! Well done!