New Tops in the Breeders Cup

[Silver Charm]

Usually this is hard to do or find. I actually felt like I found a couple who had them coming and maybe got lucky and guessed right. And yes there are those over the top types who take money but regress and sadly I used a few of those too.

But after a long campaign finding horses who appear to be poised or sitting on New Tops is not easy. I\'m gonna name 4 but the data will verify my hunch.

Royal Delta
Wrote
Calebs Posse
Turallure

[TGJB]

Almost certainly right on all 4. The interesting thing is going to be the extremely high percentage of X\'s-- like in the Classic. There\'s no figure you can give the winner where most of the field doesn\'t run bad.

[Silver Charm]

Wrote I posted on.....just felt like that one was coming.

Royal Delta since she went favored I wasnt the only one. Because Its Tricky had the # power.

Calebs Posse I confess the shift back to one turn was the tipping point. But that kind of an effort. No way Jose did i see that.

Turallure had good timing and had a New Top at CD last year around the same time. Another jump was there on his Sheet. Unfortunately another jump is what he needed for me to hit him and that Pick 3. Wisely I backed him up instead of wheeling him underneath.......wink!

[miff]

Roughly a TG -1/2 if you agree with Beyer 104(nice creative license) for Drossel-slug.Can\'t you just read his promo tear sheet, Belmont and BC Classic winner. Wow, was he a fast one.

Track drying all day, painfully slow in routes both days with the Classic 2nd slowest,raw,in history.


Mike

[alm]

Mike

I know you have a low opinion of the horse, but did you read Mott\'s description of everything he did with it from the Belmont Stakes on?  Pretty clear explanation of slow numbers, etc, leading up to the race he was pointed for...this Classic.  Mott certainly didn\'t follow a normal path, which might have led to more races, more money won, better and worse numbers along the way...and a loss last Saturday, if he even made the race.

Al

[TGJB]

The problem was not about believing he was going to run well, it was about how fast (slow) he was. Elliott Walden (runs Win Star) told me a week out he was going to run great and asked me if he had a shot (I said no). A friend of mine who posts on  this board sometimes and is a top pro horseplayer sat with Mott for the race right before, and they had the exact same conversation-- he\'s gona run great, has he got a shot, no. Neither my friend or I used the horse.

[miff]

Hi Al,

I\'m pretty black and white about this stuff. I have never seen Drosselmeyer run a fast race, including Saturday.I have something called internals(not pace figs) and Dross is slower than many allowance horses.His speed/performance figs very ordinary compared to so many others. That field imploded on Sat and he made a run and got there.

His forte is obviously distance and he caught two occasions, Belmont and BC Classic where the stars lined up.He\'s a bona fide slug. Mott top, top class trainer but if the others ran to their ability, his \'plans\' would not have gotten Dross a check.


Mike

[alm]

Guys, I understand and appreciate everything you\'ve said here.

However, leading up to this race many on this board described the liklihood of failure for just about everyone else in the race.  Some had distance limitations, some were likely to bounce, some trained like crap, some didn\'t train on the track, etc, etc.

They were right and this horse not only ran good, but he ran a new top.  Was that top always inside him?  I think it had to be.  That\'s why I found Mott\'s description of his preparation for roughly a year to be compelling.

That\'s all.

[moosepalm]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 A friend of mine who posts on
> this board sometimes and is a top pro horseplayer
> sat with Mott for the race right before, and they
> had the exact same conversation-- he\'s gona run
> great, has he got a shot, no. Neither my friend or
> I used the horse.

Somehow, even that provides scant consolation, and I\'m guessing I know whom you\'re talking about.

My only Monday morning handicapping angle on Dross was that he had an affinity for the course.  We do see that with some horses and Churchill, though sadly, not Hamazing Destiny on Saturday.  He only had one race over the strip, but it was his best number as a two-year old.  Of course, his pattern could have accounted for that, too.  I\'ll leave that to wiser heads than mine to discern.

[sighthound]

The trainers were saying afterwards that the track seemed crumbly - horses unable to get a hold of it.

[jumpnthefire]

reminded of Giacomo for some reason ... and on a side note Giacomo  was a Hall of fame slug! lol

[HP]

Breeders Cup - great opportunities but...I hate to see you guys using that word \"slug.\"  I just accept that there is a higher than average chaos factor?  There are horses that would have really surprised me...I only played Sat. but the only two horses that really made me WINCE were that Marathon horse and Caleb\'s Posse?  

I didn\'t LIKE a lot of the other results (LOL) but none of them made me think it was the numbers or my handicapping that were the issue.  I know, I\'m flattering myself.  And this includes Drosselmyer!  I loved Flat Out but it was an UNUSUAL looking sheet for a Classic winner?  Closest I remember being Alphabet Soup coming up with this isolated little campaign all of a sudden and winning?  So if you didn\'t like Flat Out and tossed HdeGrace and UMo (I got that right) Drosselmyer might have been in that second tier of contenders.  Personally I thought the 3yos would perk up and fill up my ticket with some decent prices but NOOOO.  

I\'ve had a few good ones (Caressing!) but usually this is an entertaining and truly ballbusting day for me.  LOL.  HP

[mlnolan00]

Wow. Your thoughts on Dross, Jerry, mirror what we kept coming back to all of last week.  We were at CD and saw his work w/ Birdrun first-hand and the horse did look very well and moved easily and with fluidity over the surface.
As the race approached, though, I kept thinking, \"Yeah, he looks great and is clearly flourishing but at the end of the day, that\'s still Drosselmeyer out there, and the Drosslemeyer I know of is slow.\"
Underneath, potentially.  Breeders Cup Classic Winner Drosselmeyer, hell to the NO.   Those plain chestnut Distorted Humors (Funny Cide, Dross, Hystericalady, etc) sure do seem to have an affinity for that surface.

Thanks for posting your viewpoints Jerry...Now that I know esteemed handicappers such as yourself had the same inclination as me as hence left him off tickets for similar reasons.  Subsequently, I don\'t feel quite so dense as a handicapper.
PS-thought the Seminar was terrific.  Thank you for all the hard work you do in putting that together.  We appreciate it.