Miff-- there is no question that in the short term-- or even relatively short term-- the results of photos etc. outweigh everything else, as I have said here before. The results in this game are leveraged like in no other, and the difference between going 7-3 and 3-7 in photos with 5-1 returns over 50 races is so big that no handicapping can overcome it. But over the long haul, if that stuff doesn\'t exactly even out, it comes close. Not true for the small bettor, where one photo in a pick 6 race going one way or the other can be life altering, at least in terms of lifetime bottom line-- but true for a pro playing multiple tracks 150-200 days a year.
That is why I included the previous two (losing) years in my original post. The proper way to look at this is to take the three years as one big representative sample. Last year, I took two different tough beats for about 50-100k each within a week of each other, and definitely was a big net loser on photos-- in fact I would say that was true through June of this year. Since then, I definitely have gotten the breaks. So the key thing if you\'re good enough to win is to overcome sample size-- to get enough at bats. A great hitter is more likely than not going to make an out in one at bat, and over ten anything can happen. They even have off years. But give them enough at bats...
A couple of the breaks I got this year had nothing to do with photos-- two involved gate scratches. In one, in the second leg of a pick 5 at Hol I was using two horses against a 3/5 shot. They were about 5/2 and 6-1. The 3/5 shot got scratched, throwing all those who had bet him on to the 5/2 shot, who now was 3/5, and 1/5 in the pick 5 because of the money from both horses. The other one (who I liked more and had twice as many tickets with) won. He was 5/2 on the board, but 6-1 in the pick 5, and I had only one horse to beat, not two. Pure good luck.
The other came about a month ago, also at Hollywood. I made a pretty tight pick 6 play pressing two short priced Baffert horses in the sequence-- without either winning I could have it once, with one I could have it twice, with both 6 times but it wouldn\'t pay much. They both won (one winning a photo over a horse I didn\'t use), and I was live to 6 horses, 6 times each. One was gate scratched, so I now was live to the post time favorite 12 times. The two 5/2 shots ended up in a photo, I had no idea who to root for-- as it turned out the one who won had 2k more bet on him, he was the favorite. The pick 6 was only 5k but the way it worked out it was a score.
I also was lucky in my biggest score of the year (and life). In the scond leg of the pick 6, maiden claimers, there was a 6/5 shot in a huge field. He was a universal single for those who could not spread, but to me there were a lot of questions, I had strong opinions in 3 other legs, so I went 7 deep. The 6/5 shot ran second to a $50 horse I didn\'t particularly like but used for coverage, a second out lifetime who ran lousy first out but looked like he might wake up (relatives, trainer profile, Harrington, I use a lot of price horses second out). That race knocked out 99% of the tickets. If he had improved about 8 points instead of 10 the favorite would have won.
The previous two years the breaks went against me. This year they went for me. You have to get enough at bats. That means staying in action if you\'re good enough to win, and not beating yourself.
