Well...

[magicnight]

\"You have to get enough at bats\".

An interesting and (I\'d think) apt analogy.

In what may strike some folks as being odd or counter-intuitive, besides being a good hitter, what is the most important ingredient in winning a batting title?

Answer: Not walking too much.

Now, you may think that not walking very much would be a result of swinging at too many bad balls. But yet, almost all of the serial batting title winners were guys who did not walk very much.

Take a look at the guys who have won multiple batting titles in the last 50 years. Almost none of them walked a lot. Gwynn; Madlock; Carew, Rose; Oliva; and Clemente.

The exception that proves the rule is Wade Boggs. And, a few generations back, Williams. But, otherwise, you want to win the title? Swing the bat!

[miff]

JB,


Agree in general but have seen many very deep pocketed \"pro\" players go broke over many years.I\'m probably playing longer than you and have been taken down for $88k and $126K in pick sixes a while back. Both only\'s, both won easily, both fouled, neither foul would have changed the win position.Have 3 beats just this past week alone for very decent money. I\'ll disagree its\' evened out for me but get your drift.

Not sure what you define as a \"pro\" but to me it\'s not only something to do with how much they bet. I met a so called pro-whale from Cali at the BC at GP years ago, monster bettor,millions per week when he played, a few times per week.A stone sucker,yet \"known\"as a pro because he bet so much and occasionally made scores comensurate with his plays.

To me, a pro is a computer batch bettor, wired live to the tote,skimming a break even model and relying on the rebate.There are very few so called pro\'s that can consistently beat the game with just data/handicapping/software/info, but no rebate.Did every so called pro beat the game over the long haul, pre rebate,I doubt it then and now.

With pools still shrinking at most venues and countrywide overall handle down again in November.One whale that I know is backing up because shrinking pool liquidity making a very tight betting model tougher yet.

Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- I\'m not talking about bet size, I\'m talking about people who make their living in this game, who show a profit over the long run. And yes, almost nobody can do it without rebates. There are some who can do it without software.

In the long run, theones who win do bet quite a bit. Grinding it out on 5-10% of handle (even after rebate) you still have to bet pretty good to make a living.

[miff]

Miff-- I\'m not talking about bet size, I\'m talking about people who make their living in this game, who show a profit over the long run. And yes, almost nobody can do it without rebates. There are some who can do it without software.

In the long run, theones who win do bet quite a bit. Grinding it out on 5-10% of handle (even after rebate) you still have to bet pretty good to make a living.

JB,

A math whiz who plays the game decently theorizes that if the decline in handle continues, it will force the grinders out since that model doesn\'t work unless the pools have a certain minimum of liquidity.Can any pro with that model that reads here expand on that theory?

That\'s a scary thought because if the 10-15% of the players that bet 60-70% of the handle disappear, whats left?

Mike

[TGJB]

You ain\'t kidding. What I think will happen is that you will see less tracks running at one time, with bigger pools. There will be some seismic changes in this industry over the next 5 years.

[Boscar Obarra]

Seems to me that the grinders depress the average winning payout.

 good riddance to them.

 It\'s a bit like asking, what if all the speed handicappers leave the game.  

 That\'s what you want.

 Of course, there\'s a limit to this, and if the handle drops too much it may be a problem on all fronts.

[vired]

Great thread. Lot\'s of good stuff. Afew questions. When you mention software what software are you talking about? Are there guidelines for the smaller bettor to even be involved in the Pik 3-4-5-6? It seems to me that your bankroll needs to be huge to play into these pools. I lost last year for the first time in many years (i\'m a weekend warrioe not a pro). My thought is the 5-7 to 1 that I made money on is now 3-1 or less because of all info that\'s out there. Thoughts? I buy your data every week and swear by it. Any comments would be appreciated. Congrats on the big year! Ed

[jumpnthefire]

Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> At his age I was
> hanging out in an OTB in Staten Island!


Which one the one in new dorp  plaza? i hung out there 16 years ago

[miff]

Vired.

The software referred to comes in several varieties.In brief,some whales,pro\'s use these software programs to assist with their betting models.It runs the gamut from facilitating with many late robotic bets to live hookups to the pool seeking imperfections in the wagering on exotics(I understand this happens at rebate shops mainly)There is a string on the site with more details.The hook up to the live pool version is the most dangerous thing I can think of re pool integrity and fairness to all players.Clueless Clowns at NYRA would only say they were CERTAIN of the integrity of their betting pools. Would prefer hearing confirmation of that from an independent outside source with details of encryption and time stamp.

Not a conspiracy theorist but with modern technology and geek brilliance, this worries me.Lightweight racing thieves, the \"fix sixers\" almost got away with millions and had they a clue about how to go about it, they would still be robbing millions from the pools without detection.

The Clueless Clowns/Lords Of Racing still yakking about public perception of the game but have done nothing to stop the odds from dropping mid race.Yeah, we all know that huge sums pour into the pools VERY late. Fix it, morons!!

The introduction of the .50 cent pick 4 and 5 is the absolute best bet for the smaller player(somewhat the enemy of the larger player via pool dilution)The Pick 6 is a very tough play for any bankroll and without \"standing\" in a race or two, and getting lucky, can be a long road to huge losses.


Good Luck


Mike

[Dana666]

No Richmond Ave, I think? Near the shopping center with Gino\'s pizza.

[richiebee]

My favorite was the tiny OTB on Broad Street in Tompkinsville next to the
methadone clinic. My father never knew that one existed and could never find me.

I have not seen a single former OTB location in Staten Island or Manhattan which
has new occupants following the closing last year.

[trackjohn]

Richie:

  The OTB next to the methadone clinic in Tompkinsville??? You are a braver man that I Gunga Din!! I thought I was hard core spltting time between the Forest Ave. and Hylan Blvd locations!!

John

[Dana666]

\"next to the methadone clinic\"
That\'s classic! You can\'t make this stuff up!

[plasticman]

Jerry, do you mind if i ask you a question about Calif vs NY? Your thread seems to indicate that you\'re really into So Cal pick 6s, is there any reason you\'re not putting your full effort or concentrating on NY pick 6s? I know the NY pick 6 pools arent as big as the Calif pick 6 pools, is pool size and the amount of decent carryovers the reason you\'re concentrating on Calif? NY has had plenty of decent carryovers this year, do you find the races in calif \'easier to beat\' than in NY?

[TGJB]

A one day carryover in California is about twice as big as one in NY. I decide whether to play based on size of carryover and what the races look like, not location.