Well...

[dodie]

I\'ve been fascinated by this thread as many of us have been, and I\'ve decided to add my 2 cents.  According to my online account with TG, I\'ve spent $11,585 on sheets since 1999.  Estimating conservatively, if I include hard copy purchases prior and subsequent to that year, I\'ve spent $20K on TG, who knows how much on forms, BRIS, etc.  I can turn and look at my bookshelf and see over 40 books on horses, horse racing, and handicapping.  I\'ve worked for and been friends with a triple crown race winning trainer. I\'m an avid lurker, occasional poster on this board.  Enough with the bone fides, like just about everyone else on this board, I know a thing or three about horseracing.
  After handicapping the sh*t out of the breeder\'s cup and showing a significant loss once again, I quit over handicapping and my results have sky rocketed.  My approach the last month has been toss out the favorite, zero in on horses that figure at good, or at least not low odds, then play relatively large p3, p4, and p5 tickets using at most one favorite.  I know, it\'s what we all say we should do, look for value.  But, I\'m finally doing it, and the key to success has been not overhandicapping and falling in love with particular horses because I put 3 hours in on the card the night before.  
  I know about variance.  I know this will change.  But I feel like I finally \"let go of the side of the pool\" and have discovered swimming in the deep end is the same as swimming in the shallow.
The $3K P4 at the Big A today is an example.  Wasn\'t going to play today at all.  Watched the first few races online, decided that speed was the way to go.  Put in a $24 ticket using horses that had early speed or had not yet demonstrated they didn\'t have early speed.
  The point is this.  I\'ve known for 20 years that proper betting, not exceedingly thorough handicapping, is the key to making money. I\'m finally doing it and its amazing.  Like I said, I\'m not so naive as to not realize that there is luck, variance, etc also involved in this.  But, if you are stuck in a rut with handicapping, open up your betting instead of putting more time in handicapping the night before.  If you\'re on this board, you probably know an awful lot about handicapping.  Put that to good use by allowing it, not strangling it.  Step up the plate as previous posters have been saying; take as many at bats as you can to give yourself a chance to win.  Just make sure you aren\'t using the favorites.  I\'ve heard the cliche a thousand times, but the all-button really is your friend.

[TGJB]

Dodie-- if you were only spending around $1,000 a year with us, clearly that was the problem.

I would make a point related to the one you made, but coming from a different angle. I think people get scared to throw out a favorite just because it has a decent shot to win. If you have an even money shot that is really only 25% to win (or 50% to be in the exacta) he\'s a clear bet against in both pools. You have to be prepared to lose some bets in exchange for getting value. Again, if you get enough chances it will work out in your favor. And short priced favorites are GREAT throwouts in multiple race wagers-- people have to find a place to take a stand, and they are way overbet.

The tricky part comes when you like a price horse, and have to decide whether to protect under the favorite, even though it\'s an underlay. That\'s where it gets complicated.

[dodie]

And that\'s where taking lots of at bats comes in to make a profit.  You have to throw out  that favorite that has a chance enough times in order to make the profit that the expected value allows for. So I guess what we\'re saying is bet more, bet more, bet more to expose yourself adequately to those profits that are available.  Bet more, and of course, as you so ably pointed out, Mr. Brown, buy more sheets. :-)  (I won\'t get in to the personal circumstances and small bankroll that only allowed me to spend $1000 a year on sheets.)

[dodie]

Too your last point, Jerry . . .although I\'m working with a woefully small sample, the answer for me has just been to throw that favorite out.  In fact, if I\'m willing to get involved in the sequence, I\'ve backed up with ANOTHER price horse in that race with the favorite that has a shot.  I know it will eventually catch up with me.  That favorite I\'m afraid of that I\'ve tossed, is going to start coming in instead of my price horse or the other longshot back-up.  I\'ll go through a downswing.  But, I will have made enough profit the last month through throwing out that favorite to weather that downturn, and I now KNOW it will turn around.  But everyone is right, those photo losses can be devastating if you let them be.  Ultimately, enjoy and appreciate those good runs.

[vired]

Dodie: What was your average Pik 4 play before and what is the average now?

[dodie]

This is anecdotal.  (Yes, I know I should have detailed records . . .) My average play is about the same, $36-$96 per sequence, all tickets totaled. The difference is, I\'m not making that stand on a favorite.

[TGJB]

I was kidding about buying more sheets, but again yes on the rest. It\'s not necessarily bet more money, it\'s about staying in action.

[vired]

Do you multiple tickets where you could hit it more than once or one bigger ticket?

[dodie]

I\'ve been on the board long enough, Jerry, to pick up on your wry humor.:-)  And yes, bet more OFTEN is what I should have wrote, but heck, bet MORE too when you\'re on a roll too.

[dodie]

Vired
  I usually play one P4 ticket. Most tracks have concurrent P3s or doubles, so that\'s where I press my top value picks.  If there\'s a P4 and a P4 only, then maybe I\'ll put in a press ticket, but my sense has always been to include another horse in a chaos race than to \"double up\" on the horse you think \"just can\'t lose.\"  You are leveraging value in these multi-race bets, and that leverage is leveraged even more with a long shot.  Again, your hit percentage goes down, but, when you hit, you are rewarded disproportionately.  You just have to have the bankroll and emotional fortitude to watch that $400 P4 come in that includes a favorite you left out, because the 2 longshots you used in that race instead would have paid $3-4000, and they just ran second by a length.  
  Writing this stream of conscience stuff is really re-inforcing stuff I\'ve known for years, but just haven\'t had the courage to follow through on.  I wish they were running the BC again tomorrow.  God, I would\'ve had Court Vision and Drosselmyer on some tickets!

[vired]

Thanks for your reply. Funny you bring up Court Vision because i had the $1 pik 3 for 5000 BUT it was only because i had the all! BC day i play amuch bigger pool of money that a group of us put in. What i\'m trying to figure out is how big a bankroll i need to play these pik 4\'s. I know every one is different but if you bet a 96.00 ticket you might not be able to hit the all button. Maybe i need to recruit partners. Thoughts from you and JB would be appreciated. Thanks

[dodie]

You\'re absolutely right, vired,.50 P4s are within range for me, but not $1, to use the all.  Looking at a $192 instead of $96 just isn\'t within my bankroll or gambling mentality and that needs to change, at least the mentality part, which is what I guess all this rambling has been about for me. I love the challenge of handicapping.  I love the passion with which others on the board talk about the performance figures and how they\'re crafted.  I love the beauty of the horse, leading me to work on the backside during vacations.  But the grinding truth of betting on them into usurious take out rates is that you have to accept that in a 10 horse field, all other things being equal (and I know they are not :-) ) each horse\'s fair odds is 9-1.  Toss out the extreme long shots (Quirin\'s great study demonstrated that they won at much less a percentage than their odds indicated [that\'s right, his study showed that essentially 25-1 shots won %2 of their races, not the %4 their odds indicated]) and skip the races where there is a 3/5 shot or less (Quirin showed that they actually win MORE often than their odds indicated) and you can start thinking about actually overcoming the takeout rate.  But then, this odds analysis alone assumes that pari-mutuel wagering is an efficient market reflecting each horses true value, which is what we are trying to exploit.   Jerry and others have said it time and time again here:  You have to be getting rakeback to make a profit and churning at least mid-six figures through the windows (both brick and mortar as well as online, excuse the non-sexual double entendre)to make a marginal living betting horses. So where does that leave us?  For me, its enjoying the little streak I\'ve been on.  Just like our hero Jerry, but on a much smaller scale. :-)

FWIW, my dissertation prospectus is due Friday, and I\'ve been working on it pretty heavily the last month.  Betting and posting here has been a way to procrastinate.  I see it all clearly now.  Once I turn the thing in, I\'m sure my horseplaying will go down the toilet.

[plasticman]

Dodie, great post, im in the same boat as you, handicapping the stuffin out of the Breeders Cup only to realize its just like throwing darts. Im sure some people crush the BC, i\'m not one of them.

The absolute key is to bet big against badly overbet favorites. Seems like the most overbet favorites are horses with a fancy jock/trainer combo. One of the problem\'s im struggling with now is HOW to bet my \'sneaky longshot\'. If you key your sneaky longshot for 4th in the superfecta, you can make a boat load of money. You can also make a boatload if you key him for 3rd, 2nd or 1st. Of course, depending on how well you structure the wager with all the other horses in the race.

Recently, my \'good bombs\' have been outrunning where i think they\'ll finish. Ive been saying to myself \"this is an interesting 25-1 shot, maybe he can sneak into 4th and create a nice superfecta\" only for me to see that bomb finish in the top 2 and beat my supers AND my trifectas (which key him for 3rd).

Handicapping very good these days, maybe a bit too good...these bombs i\'m picking are finishing higher than i need them to.

[Boscar Obarra]

There\'s no reason for the adw\'s not to offer an \'api\' that could be used by decent programmers to create a usable front end for players.

 The online offerings I\'ve seen to date range from pitiful to clumsy.

 It\'s almost as if they are going out of their way to make it hard to wager in an efficient manner.

[dodie]

Plastic and Oscar
  I will say this that gets to both of your latest posts.  I split my play pretty evenly these days between an online adw and a racebook that has terminals where you punch in your own bets.  For a couple of years I\'ve seen these guys sitting at the machines punching in bets like crazy.  It really reminded me of someone just sitting in front of a slot machine, which all of us wiseguy horseplayers know is just the height of gambling stupidity. :-) One specific guy has a computer printout that he down loads.  Never has a form.  The other guy has a form in front of him, but essentially waits for the call from his clocker buddy and jock agent buddy for \"the\" horses.  When I first noticed them, I thought, whatever, they\'ll be gone soon. Well, \"as far as I can tell\" (and what does that mean when trying to figure out if \"track buddies\" are ahead or behind) they\'re still in the game, and doing pretty well.  One guy apparently has an account with a rake back operation, and I\'ve watched him literally punching in bets on the machine while simultaneously repeating the bet on the phone to leverage his action.  Now, I\'ve thought as I exchanged niceties with these fellows how \"superior\" I was compared to them because I handicapped, and had insight, et cetera. It was almost as if I\'d be embarrassed to win some money on a long shot because he didn\'t \"dope out\" as the horse that \"should\" win. And that\'s delusional.  At the end of the day, its whatever works for YOU to show a long term profit, and I beginning to think that\'s what these guys must do, because I\'m having success betting lots of value combinations.  Who cares if that CC Lozez/Gullusco horse at 13-1 that went wire to wire in the stakes today at the Big A really \"looked like the fourth best horse\" based on sound handicapping principles that are \"the foundation of my erudite betting decisions.\" I didn\'t use the favorite in the race and instead used him because I knew he\'d be a better price, and I was rewarded.
Like I\'ve said, I haven\'t found the holy grail, I\'m not \"set for life\", but I\'m beginning to think you should use that 25-1 shot in all four positions, plastic.  I know you potentially need deep pockets because you\'re going to run into those photo losing dry spells.  Maybe I\'m just getting lucky.  But I do know this.  Based on the records I have kept, Gulfstream, and especially Oaklawn, are tracks where I\'ve done \"the best\" in the past.  It will be very interesting to see what happens after the new year.  I hope I can keep this whole zen approach going.
  I trust I can count on one of you fine fellows on the board to \"look me up\" in a month or two to see if I\'m still killing \'em.  Experience tells me I doubt I will be, but, in the meantime, I did put some tidy profits in a 91-day CD that comes due in February, so at least I\'ll be able to still be in action if I want. :-)
  Thanks for letting me ramble.  Instead of this quasi-redboarding post stuff, I\'ll share one of my 5-star, lead pipe locks of the century with the board this weekend.  All you\'ll need to do is go the opposite of what I say to score.  :-)