The Plan Almost Worked

[Silver Charm]

TGJB I am not sure if you are still involved with some advising for Padua and i believe there was a little with Assmussen at one time. Maybe some of Ro\'s horses.

But Rothko almost pulled it off. This looked like a pretty obvious \"point job\" to me after the CD romp and early ship. Probably lost a length when he steadied and The Factor felt like running so it wasnt a bad effort.

At 5-1 I stabbed and lost my Mr Commons Double. Good to be back talking about horse and races. Lets get off the Politics and Conspiracy Soapbox for at least one more day.....

[Lost Cause]

Hey SIlver,
I had the same double thought as you (sorry)..Thought he lost a little more than a length and the horse that checked would have taken a little bit of starch out of The factor also..Next time.

[richiebee]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Good to be back talking about horse and races.
> Lets get off the Politics and Conspiracy Soapbox
> for at least one more day.....

Yeah lets all stand down off the soapbox, keep betting compulsively on a weak
product---maybe 2012 will feature shorter fields, more maiden races and higher
takeout...

[Silver Charm]

Ritchie Happy New Year. Keep fighting the fight and I do not want to pick one with friends.

LC, I could not understand why Mr. Commons was even money. I looked at the articles to see if there were statements about him needing a race, etc.he laid all over the field on figures and class. The second choice was fraud on figures and did not really look much better than the runnerup. Who was 9-1.

However the days of me trying to make money, say $200 to win, on an Even Money type are LOOOOOONG GONE. Getting 10-1 plus on that Double was good money. Except he didnt win.

Those bashing the No Factor of the The Factor in some of these corners need only look at the final time. He ran big. Same as last years race and the overall track speed probably wasnt that quick. If this wasnt a new top for him i will be surprised. Looking forward to the weekend racing. Later

[miff]

Raw times at Santa in the fake fast zone,like last year early on. Early gas an edge yesterday.Doubt the dirt surface will stay that way as some trainers bound to complain about the glib surface, esp the ones with mainly phony wides.

Factor ended up best on a surface that flattered his running style and with the perfect post.Price very tough to take.Baffy always overbet but tough customer.


Mike

[SOUTHERN SLEW]

I have been using the sheets for several years maybe over 30 years. I would like to hear from others regarding the analysis approach they use when making a selection. From my experience the lowest number in almost 100% will point to the favorite, so basically if you handicap a  full card you will be pointed to the favorite in every race. The value bets or horses that win at 7-1 or better are never horses that have the lowest number on the sheets. The theory behind the sheets implies that the fastest horse in the race is the horse with the lowest number, but that theory is not truly accurate especially when the race is won by a horse that goes off at 19-1 because these type of horses are very ugly on paper with numbers that most would normally just eliminate.

So the question is how does one find these horses before they win when utilizing the sheets as your primary handicapping method. Obviously just betting on  the horse with the lowest number will lead to more losing bets than winning bets. One of the strongest patterns that I have seen is the 0 2 x pattern, I learned about it several years ago at one of the first seminars given by Len Ragozin at his Manhattan office, probably back in the 1980\'s. It was  and still is a very effective pattern, but it does not appear that frequently, but when it does, you can just close your eyes and bet $100 to win.

If anyone within this group has any other reliable patterns as they relate to the sheets I would love to hear from them or perhaps we can just open the floor to ideas and strategies that work best.

[TGJB]

I\'m happy to have this open ended question out there and I think you\'ll get a lot of responses. But I have to say going in that as you look at the free data you\'re going to find that horses often look much different on our stuff than Ragozin\'s.

[glacken1]

Jerry
 I think I remember back when you were writing the programs to come up with the pattern statistics (off-off-pr, etc.) that you also might have run one on the 02X.  Before I waste my mad search skyllz on trying to find it on the archives, can you point me in the right direction if it exists?

[glacken1]

The strength of the 0 2 X pattern is just as you point out, southern, is that it puts you on a horse that is potentially value at the odds because the recent form is \"poor.\"  This, I believe, is the only way you might make money into a 20% blended take out.  I\'m going to post some analysis for tomorrow, then tell you how I bet it once I know the horses true prices close to post, and we can evaluate.

[mikemca]

First I would say that the lowest # isn\'t even close to the favorite 100% of the time but you\'re right , if you just bet the lowest last number you\'re bound to lose.A couple ways I go about handicapping a race is to use the ML favorites as par and try to find a horse that can beat them.Either by cycling back to a previous number that can beat it or by a progressive pattern that points to an improvement beyond par.Also the trainer and sire stats can find you a price too by seeing what angles they excel at.Often a horse that looks slow will jump up if that is a move the trainer uses with success.The sire stats come in handy with maidens making their first start or switching surfaces or distances .

[TGJB]

0-2-X is a completely different thing with dirt than grass, and for 2yos as opposed to 5yos, etc. That\'s why we break the pattern stuff down by category.

[Sandreadis]

Buried figures can lead you to a lot of value. One theme you will notice in the ROTW is finding value in betting against vulnerable favorites. One way to find value is through anticipated ground loss or gain. If the fastest horse in a race has been getting 1w,1w trips in his last few races and now has an outside post with a lot of speed up front, you may reason that he will be forced wide and thus his figure will be adversly affected. Conversly, this works with horses who have gotten wide trips and now have in inside post and could get a ground saving trip.

IMO, Michael D. is 1 of the top handicappers on this site. Almost all of his selections he projects a figure based on a favorable ground loss scenario.

[bellsbendboy]

Seems a little harsh Richie.  Compulsively?  Personally, I spend, on average, at least an hour per race for every sequence played.  As far as maidens, at most tracks 40 percent of the horse population has not won and maiden races always have the most entrants.  Takeout.  If not for the vig many of us would have \"retired\" comforably long ago. bbb

[richiebee]

Triple B:

Wasn\'t meaning to single you or any other horseplayer on this board or elsewhere
out,and I am sure your preparation is quite thorough.

If forty percent of the horse population on a given track or circuit is maidens, why
has this changed so drastically in past years? Please go back and look at racing
cards on any given circuit 15 or even 10 years ago and I am fairly certain you will
NOT see cards which have four or five maiden races on them, the way there are now at
NYRA. And the maiden races I most object to are the races composed of the progeny of
unqualified/ underqualified stallions, and mares which are much more \"turkey\"
than \"blue hen\". The beat goes on for the breeders and pinhookers, with the
horseplayer taking the beating.

I am a pick four player. My circuit is NYRA. I will not play a sequence which has
two or more maiden races unless I feel strongly about a certain runner in the
sequence at a decent price or feel that a strong (7/5 or less) favorite in the
sequence is going down. And there have been days at NYRA tracks where the early P4
features no less than 3 maiden races, and I\'m sure there have been a few all maiden
early P4s.

With first time starters, the horseplayer relies to an extent on the clockers in the
DRF, who are far from infallible. How many times have you seen a horse on the work
tab at Calder one day being shown on the work tab at Churchill say the very next day?
Honest error? Overwhelmed clockers? Crafty trainer looking for an edge?.

[Boscar Obarra]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Triple B:
>
>How many times
> have you seen a horse on the work
> tab at Calder one day being shown on the work tab
> at Churchill say the very next day?
> Honest error? Overwhelmed clockers? Crafty trainer
> looking for an edge?.


 Sometimes the random name generator at the Form gets confused.