G-Men

[Silver Charm]

Lotta history with Giants and Niners on the West Coast. 15-14 win over Niners Team going for 3 Straight was as good coached and played football game Ive seen. Game will be like that one...physical!! Eli has his own identity now. Class guy. Tom Coughlin keeps his job for at least 10-12 more games....

[FrankD.]

Unbelievable that the LV Hilton posted the Packers -5 by game time. There was not a line under 7.5 anywhere including in NY.

A bold move or a huge bet on the Giants ?

[FrankD.]

Ignore the previous post it was a half time line, I was on the wrong page.

[Silver Charm]

Early numbers have Pats by 7.5 and the Niners by 2.5. Giants getting a lot of respect now.....I expect that game to be extremely physical.

[Uncle Buck]

Hi guys. Haven\'t played a horse in over a year but I stopped by to see if there was a little pigskin scuttlebutt. Been a Niner fan since grandma lived next door to John Brodie in 1970s Palo Alto. I now reside 2 miles from Candlestick. Harbaugh has returned the glory in a big way for the beloved red and gold. The most amazing coaching job I\'ve ever seen. From a handicapping standpoint, the Niners just ran a -7 to defeat the toughest team in the playoffs - the Saints. I believe they can pair or slightly bounce to a -5 to beat the scary G Men.

Two GREAT NFL franchises re-kindling a dynamic revilary. Both teams are peaking. EPIC matchup coming this Sunday.

BTW: Montana said the other day on Bay Area radio he still hurts from Leonard Marshall\'s blindside wallop in the 1990 championship game...

Getcha popcorn ready!

[Silver Charm]

Buck when you look at how mamy Hall of Famers who played and coached that game its kinda scary. Marshall worked out in gym I used to belong in Boca and he could still bring it I bet.

Those two Teams met earlier in the year in like week 11 after opening the season 9-0. Both lost the week before and  that game ended with late Giants rally that fell short. Ronnie Lott and Phil Simms had to separated after the game as handshakes turned to fists.

Parcells took his Team out there the second time with a Backup QB and he and Belichik shut that offense down with some of the best tackling ever. Took\'em down in their hpjse when they were going for three in a row.

[plasticman]

No doubt this will overshadow the other game. This is the game people want to see, the Super Bowl, unless its NYG vs NE will be a letdown.

As far as SF running a \'negative 7\' you have to factor in that N.O. might have bounced to the moon heading from artifical indoor track to the outdoors. So, if N.O. ran a slow number, SF might not have had to run all that fast to beat them. Just a thought Mars.

You can make the case that NYG has run 4 new \'tops\' in a row....the X could be coming soon!

[alm]

The Giants just beat the best quarterback in football by altering his passing routes just slightly. They suffered 2 horrendous calls by the refs that resulted in a net scoring turnaround of 10 points, at least.  Without those calls it was a crush.

SF\'s far less effective QB doesn\'t have a chance throwing against that pass rush and secondary.  None.  

SF\'s only chance is on the ground and it could be good enough, but I wouldn\'t bet on it.  

The team with the takeaways wins this...probably the Giants given they will likely intercept this guy early in the game, maybe more than once.

[phil23]

Giants led the league in Turnover Ratio, this is something that is not reproducible and always regresses to the mean (see last year\'s NENG/NJ playoff game).  Although that regression certainly didn\'t start last weekend.  Saints really must just want to throw up after turning the ball over 5 times last week.  

Interestingly, the top 3 teams in Turnover Ratio there year were, in order, SF/GBAY/NENG.  Giants 8th, Ravens 12th.  

I can\'t stand the Giants but I know which way I\'d be betting this game.  The wrong side is favoured here.

[P-Dub]

Alex Smith has thrown 5 INTs all season compared to 16 for Manning.  But Smith is the guy that is going to chuck it all over and throw picks??  You guys have watched Eli throw it up for grabs this year, right??  He threw picks last week against GB.

As for turnover ratio, some are forced and some are obviously unforced.  2 botched kicks returns for New Orleans didn\'t help, but that first fumble and the pick by Whitner isn\'t luck.  Good defenses force those types of turnovers, and SF has a very good one.

There is no guarantee that NO wins last week with fewer TOs.  That is a loser\'s lament.  Its part of the game.  Its like the guy complaining that a solo HR would have been a 2 run HR if the guy didn\'t get thrown out stealing. NO. Different circumstances, different outcome.

If NO doesn\'t commit as many TOs, the game is played differently, and nobody knows how it would have turned out.

NYG out yarded SF in the first game, had time of possession. Eli also threw 2 picks, and that isn\'t an accident.  Its like SF creating TOs is lucky, or aberrant. Its not.  Its a cohesive defense making plays.

The wrong team isn\'t favored.  You may think NYG wins, and they very well might. But the right team is favored.  I guess NO was the right favorite last week too, that didn\'t turn out well.

[phil23]

For a rebutal, I\'ll put up this link:
http://www.boston.com/sports/blogs/statsdriven/2012/01/the_turnover_battle_crucial_ye.html

May have been a bit strident in the first post about wrong team favoured but the point stands.  Turnover margin always regresses, just like a high shooting percentage in hockey.  Lots of Caps fans though the team 2 years ago had discovered the \"secret\" to success when they ran the table in the regular season thanks to pucks going in at a high rate, then the playoffs hit and boom, one bad shooting % series against Montreal, and out they went (the real secret to success in hockey is puck possession Fenwick/Corsi measure this quite well).  It\'s the same in football with turnovers.  To say the Giants D, based on past results, will continue to create turnovers at such a high rate is just not true.  They have gotten lucky.  Eventually that luck will turn around.  Thus, imo, the Giants are a good bet this weekend taking the points, especially if you could find some looney online place or bookie that would let you buy onto the 3 for 10 cents (hell even 15 cents...it\'s worth 21 cents so anything less than that a good long term bet).  

But good discussion regardless, not trying to lament a loss or start a fight,  as had no bet on the side on the game (middles on team point totals in the Giants/Packers was my only action).

[Silver Charm]

Good Post. They are Turnover prone and Eli can make some bad throws. But he is playing very very well now and making a lot of plays and throws. Giants will not throw 63 times like NO amd will commit to establishing the run. Anything close to last weekends play versus Green Bay results in a Win. QB play will be the difference. This guy is playing that well now....

[big18741]

I\'m comfortable laying 2.5 with a very solid D,running game and significantly better special teams on that surface which figures less than firm.Eli the better Qb but Smith can win playing the way he has all year.

I like the other inferior Qb in the AFC game as well.

Baltimore getting a TD and on the Money line for me.Pats can move the ball and do some scoring but Ravens should be in this the whole way.Feels like that Monday Night game in Pittsburgh back in November.Ravens scored late to win it 23-20 when Flacco drove them 90 yards inside of two minutes.

Pats are very dangerous on offense but the bottom line for me:

ZERO wins this year against teams that finished above .500

Ravens on the other hand have seven wins vs teams that finished above .500

[plasticman]

Dubber, here\'s the difference. Eli has thrown for almost 2,000 yards more than Alex this season....so, he\'s chucking the ball more and chucking it more downfield, which, creates more turnovers. Alex is throwing more conservative passes and thus, has less INTs.

The Saints implode outdoors, so, beating them isnt as impressive as if the win came indoors in New Orleans.  Saints arent nearly as good outdoors and yet, SF is getting a ton of credit for beating a \'good\' team. The version of team that SF beat is weak and not even really a playoff team. NYG is built for outdoor football, this is a completely different animal that SF is facing.

SF is good, and hungry and plays very hard, this should be a good game....but, if it comes down to the last drive of the game to win it and Eli Manning has the ball, you know he\'s liable to just march it in there and find a way to win.

Either way, the game is going to be fun to watch.

CANT WAIT.

[P-Dub]

plasticman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> but, if it comes down to
> the last drive of the game to win it and Eli
> Manning has the ball, you know he\'s liable to just
> march it in there and find a way to win.
>
> Either way, the game is going to be fun to watch.
>
> CANT WAIT.


Just like the last time, when he had the last drive of the game and.......turned it over on downs.

So we really don\'t know that.  He might, but based on the last game he won\'t.

There are merits to both sides of the discussion.  I think too many people are dismissing the 49ers, what they\'ve accomplished.  NO is a different team outdoors, but to say they aren\'t a playoff team is ridiculous. They aren\'t getting a ton of credit for beating NO, they are getting a ton of credit for their body of work, which is as impressive as any team left.

As for turnovers, its not just all luck. They make their luck, getting pressure from a 4 man rush, playing disciplined defense, disguising coverages, anticipating throws, getting picks.  Is it luck when Nicks bounces off 2 tacklers and goes 60+ for a TD??  

Yes, Eli throws more downfield.  I saw Alex Smith throw plenty downfield last week, not many got picked. He is not getting near the respect he deserves, but on this east coast board thats hardly a shock.

Should be a good one.