G-Men

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
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> SF is a very good team, no doubt. But the Giants
> are a much better and healthier football team than
> they were six weeks ago, especially on defense,
> and play very well on the road. With defenses like
> these two it figures to be a close field position
> game all the way.
>
> I made two SB bets before the playoffs started,
> Giants at 20-1 (I actually tried to get down at a
> bigger price before the Dallas game and couldn\'t),
> and Ravens at 6.7-1 (which probably was a little
> short but I had an opinion and wanted the action).
> My opinions were based as much on the Packer and
> Patriot defenses as anything else.
>
> So I\'ll be watching Sunday...

Your prediction proved to be very accurate.

You should be free rolling in the Super Bowl, that was a tough beat for the ravens.

[Silver Charm]

Early number is Patriots by 3.5.

Giants have already beaten them on their field. Hmmmm

[plasticman]

I think the Giants are 10X better now than they were when they beat them. New England seemed happy to lose and go home, but the Ravens guy just dropped a ball that hit him in a bad spot with a few seconds left in regulation. Giants seem LESS like a team who \'wants to go home\' at this point. Wrong team might be favored.

[big18741]

Pats have been over rated by the markets but people still love to bet them.

Two coinflip games yesterday but only the NFC line reflected that.

I don\'t see much difference between the Pats and Giants.Looks like another coinflip game that should be closer to a pickem in a neutral dome.

[miff]

Most early line showing Pats -3 or -3.5 with variations on what you have to lay or take.Line makers seem to love Brady/Belichick. Tom terrific not great yesterday and now has to face Giant front,great matchup.

Two fortunate teams yesterday,both got a little lucky to get to the SB.Monster NFL juggernaut got \"more\" yesterday, not that they need it.

[Rick B.]

big18741 Wrote:
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> Pats have been over rated by the markets but
> people still love to bet them.
>
> I don\'t see much difference between the Pats and
> Giants.

At the risk of being the worst edition of Mr. MOTO, the difference between the Pats and ANY other team in the NFL is that the Pats have Bill Belichick, and the other teams don\'t. (Add in a healthy, confident Tom Brady, and, really -- you don\'t see much difference?)
 
Nobody gets more out of his players year after year than Belichick. The only guy in pro sports that even comes close to Belichick is MLB\'s Tony LaRussa, who was forced to make chicken salad out of chicken [feathers] every year for the last 10 or so.

I\'d consider taking the Giants if I was getting 7.5 or more; 3.5 is nonsense and will likely move to 4.5 in a few days. Anyone that likes the Giants so much that they would take those skimpy points might as well go for the gusto and make a moneyline bet instead (evens at some places right now, wait a few days for NE money to show), because of course the Giants can win -- this is still the NFL -- but if they lose it will be by more than 4.5, IMO.

[Rick B.]

miff Wrote:
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> Tom terrific not great yesterday and now has
> to face Giant front,great matchup.

I don\'t see the Giants defense as being as tough as Baltimore\'s, so Brady gets a slight break on the pressure, if anything. Pure opinion, Miff -- I\'m sure you see far more Giants games than I do.

Disclaimer: Bears fan here...neutral on Giants, Baltimore; admirer of NE / Belichick team model for years.

[TGJB]

Rick-- yeah. And Belichick gets two weeks to look at tape and come up with ideas. That\'s got to be worth a few points.

Talk about innovative, maybe other people have done it but I don\'t remember seeing it-- yesterday the Pats ran a play where the slotback went along the line BEHIND the line of scrimmage, went through a hole the line opened, and out on a pattern. Coverage completely lost him, he was wide open on a crossing pattern. You could draw an awful lot of X\'s and O\'s on napkins (and notebooks while in class, as I spent a lot of my youth doing) without coming up with that one.

[FrankD.]

JB,

Tom Landry ran 2 versions of that same play in the 70\'s and I used it to score a TD in a pick up game once.

He would slot out a tight end and send him in motion and through the hole as a lead blocker for a running play and would sometimes put Preston Pearson in the slot and run a fly pattern through the line getting him matched up one on one with a line backer or blowing by a safety who came up to support a running play.

[miff]

Rick,

Giant front,esp starting front 4,may be playing the best of any in NFL right now(not the whole defense but the D-line)The ball has been bouncing their way on this run also.

Giants have had good success with not too mobile QB\'s like Brady(he\'s great) Don\'t gamble sports but I would not bother to take the points here, just the  money line if decent.It\'s pretty obvious to opine that the Giants can win outright.

NFL lucked out with best possible National TV matchup too, as if they need it.

Mike

[P-Dub]

Bellichik is very good, no doubt.  In the conversation amongst the best coaches.

He also hasn\'t won a SB since Spygate.

[big18741]

Rick

Pats coach and QB combined to go 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 playoff games including yesterday.

I could be very wrong but that line never gets to -4.5.Books don\'t want it at -3 but it sure seems like that\'s where it ends up.I think Pats get lots of play at
-3 but everytime it gets above the key # gets pushed back down.

[TGJB]

Pdub-- agreed, I think he was doing stuff he shoudn\'t have, and it gave him an edge. But the Giants don\'t do anything deceptive, all he has to do is look at tape this time.

Giants were having all kinds of problems once the niners started blitzing yesterday, Manning wasn\'t picking it up, or the receivers weren\'t...

[plasticman]

Here\'s a different mindset on why Belichick might have a bad \'track record\' in big games as of recent times. Its because he\'s SO amazing as a regular season coach, he\'s able to win games with average talent and a few smoke machines and mirrors, that when the competition gets tougher and tougher, the talent of the players just wins out in the end.

Pats might be a 6-10 team with any other coach, so, in a huge game vs a quality opponent, Belichick isnt as effective as he is in a reg season game with less on the line.

Pats actually had a much better team during the undefeated run and still couldnt get that last win. Now, they\'re not nearly as good.

[miff]

\"Bellichik is very good, no doubt. In the conversation amongst the best coaches\"


Paul,

No doubt, guy wins with kinda average talent(except for Brady),tortures young QB\'s
and weak defenses, brilliant schemer.

Very surprised how un-Belichick he was late in the game yesterday, kinda dogging it with very conservative play calls last drive where he\'s usually very aggressive. Almost got them beat, one/two more seconds the ref signals touchdown on that bang bang play in the end zone at the end.

Ravens,Niners played winning games.


Mike