Seriously...

[TGJB]

I think Miff wants to talk to you... or should.

[miff]

Miff-- you can bark all you want, you\'re not going to book me (at least not matching the decent rebates I get), and you would be crazy to. But you\'re right-- that horse probably wasn\'t more than 10% to win.

Oh wait, that makes him a great bet...


JB,

You\'re supposed to be working, not drinking.....10%, a great bet??? must be typo you added a zero by mistake to the %.


Mike

[TGJB]

You understand the horse was over 60-1, right? And that 10% is 9-1?

[miff]

hmmmm,so, are you saying that this impossible slug(by any reasonable/knowledge based handicapping methodology)had a 10% chance of winning even though he was 63-1 on the board, roughly a 1.59% odds prop.

[TGJB]

You did read the part where we put him up and made him a B+ bet, right?

[BenevolentDictator]

For what it\'s worth, I have used TG\'s analysis to win more than a couple of tournaments.  The most recent success story was at the June Delaware Park tourney.  With five races to go I bet 130.00 on a 36 1/2 shot to win.  TG mentioned a horse and what they liked about this horse.  I had a different opinion,but liked what TG had as a long shot.  When my horse scratched, I went all in on the TG analysis pick.  The horse won by a nose.  The shame is, someone else, TG customer bet $150 to win.  He won a around 23k,I won about 10k, and we are both going to Vegas.
Dennis Dougherty
Wilmington,DE

[drbillym]

Enjoying the TGJB-Miff exchange, especially since we don\'t have the P-Dub- Rick B. battle anymore.

[BenevolentDictator]

Thanks Bill!

[elkurzhal]

I used the slug in question (off the sheet, didn\'t take the analysis) to win the hpq.com contest Monday.  Thanks Tgraph!

[FrankD.]

I\'ve just read this entire string and not one person has mentioned the forward moving pattern to at least bring him back to an 11 or 12.

This horse was moving in the direction of running his 11 or 12 for sure. Easy pattern to read. Really only 2 horses in the race were targeted  to run faster than that.

I didn\'t play, didn\'t look until today and the Aqueduct winter meet AKA Finger Lakes South has not received a dollar of my money this year, maybe 1,000 total last year from November-March.

If I were so inclined to wager at this meet especially with a stick out 2/5 shot in the 2nd, this horse is one of 4 that was a must use in the pick 4 or any other horizontal wagers at even 15 or 20/1.


Frank D.

[richiebee]

Frank:

Good level headed analysis to counteract some of the back and forth bombast.

Maybe the story here is Neal Terraciano, a lifetime 10% trainer, who has won with 3
of his first 5 starters in 2012.

There is too much information available on the internet. Apparently, in 2001, one of
Terraciano\'s runners tested positive. For Viagra. Terraciano was fined $2000, and was
heard to say that he thought that this was a \"stiff\" penalty.

[Lost Cause]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'ve just read this entire string and not one
> person has mentioned the forward moving pattern to
> at least bring him back to an 11 or 12.
>
> This horse was moving in the direction of running
> his 11 or 12 for sure. Easy pattern to read.
> Really only 2 horses in the race were targeted  to
> run faster than that.


I agree Frank...Didn\'t play on Monday just redboarded the race and according to the sheets he looked as good as anyone else coming back to a 12.  The one that ran 9\'s in his last two did it on wet tracks..Nice pick by Alan but definitely not far -fetched on sheets.  The running line , which I have not looked at, is probably another story...
Yes there have been head-scratchers sometimes on the analysis but there have been times that it has steered me in the right direction so I think it\'s another good tool especially if you don\'t have the time to handicap on your own..

[alm]

How is the analysis doing at Gulfstream...honestly?

I haven\'t been betting seriously, just P3s and P4s and have consistently come up one race short.  I need THAT horse.

[TGJB]

Nice.

[TGJB]

Richie-- stiff indeed. Funny you should mention Neil T, just noticed some other horse jumping a lot for him. Worth keeping an eye on.

For the record, Monday\'s analysis was done by Greg, not Al.