Doom & Gloom

[richiebee]

1) Read Beyer\'s DRF article regarding a marked decrease in business at
Tampa Bay Downs. Factors: Depressed real estate market (ie horse farm market
in Ocala area, lots of local farms shuttered/foreclosed), Jamie (46%) Ness
scaring bettors away, TPD no longer carried by TVG, etc. Beyer also projects a
foal crop of 24,000 in coming years, down from crops in the low 30,000s for
recent years. Considering the fact that commercial breeders/pinhookers will
render a substantial percentage of this reduced crop unfit for extended racing
careers, the numbers are not encouraging.

If this reduced foal crop trend continues, look for racetracks to close,
forced contraction instead of planned contraction. And maybe it wont be long
before racetracks such as Calder are conducting pari-mutuel wagering on 2YO in
training sales: load five or six of these youngsters in the gate and let them
rumble for 3 furlongs. Pinhooking is part of the problem, and if Racing is
going to allow pinhooking to continue, it should be surcharged.

2) TVG Roundtable: Two interesting points. Ron Ellis and Jack Van Berg both
opining without accusing that trainers maintaining a win percentage in excess
of 30% are enjoying an edge, operating in a gray area. Both of these trainers
made the point that historically the top trainers in the US have maintained a
strike rate in the low 20s. Even the notorious NYRA \"Holy Trinity\" -- Oscar,
Pistol and the Gas Man (possibly kept in check by each other) were never able
to maintain a strike rate above 30%.

Second interesting point: Erstwhile TG poster (yes its a tough room) and Ky
Derby winning owner Barry Irwin stating that Lasix should be banned while
admitting that his trainer Graham Motion thinks that US racing could not
survive without it.

3) NYRA. The Wayward Hayward apologists were heard to spout that the cheap
claiming races and multiple maiden races were necessary to maintain field size.
As January turned to February, NYRA featured cheap races AND small fields.
Painfully slow horses, catastrophic breakdowns, a parade of short priced
favorites trained by the usual suspects. Absolutely unbettable in every way.
I will posit once again that the only way that Hayward has maintained his
position is due to his possession of photographs of the NYRA Board of Trustees
in flagrante delicto with various farm animals. I am weary of offering
my advice gratis, but it all starts with track management deciding what
kind of racing it wants to conduct, and then filling the stalls with horses
and trainers that will sustain this kind of racing. The NYRA model is to write
races for the horseflesh stabled on the grounds. Hayward, Campo and whoever is
responsible for ascertaining that stalls are productive all need to be
replaced. Why wait another day?

[sighthound]

>>Beyer also projects a foal crop of 24,000 in coming years, down from crops in the >>low 30,000s for recent years. Considering the fact that commercial >>breeders/pinhookers will render a substantial percentage of this reduced crop >>unfit for extended racing careers, the numbers are not encouraging.

I\'ll disagree with Beyer, and put a positive spin on decreasing foal crop numbers as a very good thing that I am happy to see.  I\'ll have to look to find the scientific studies (as they have been done), but when you increase the amount of breeding, the percentages of outstanding individuals in the crop does not increase, i.e, when you breed more numbers, you just get more on the bottom end, not the top.  

When you want to flood the market, when you want more inventory, what is added is this:  not breeding more good mares, because the best mares are already being bred.   What you add, what you end up breeding is everything available in your field:  including the 13-year-old mare that has produced 3 out of 7 attempts, with one getting to the track and winnings of $320.

We\'ve lived through the above swings in numbers since the 1970\'s, and it\'s proven out every time.  In 2006 and 2007, there was simply too much crap at the tail end of the yearling sales.  That needed to be gone, and now it is.  That\'s a good thing.

Eliminating that bottom end excess improves the breed, and brings up prices for everyone, as what is left is, overall, of better quality. And you can see this result in the past year of yearling sales offerings.

I am thrilled crops are down to 20,000-25,000.   I think it an outstanding thing for the breed.

[moosepalm]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 1) Read Beyer\'s DRF article regarding a marked
> decrease in business at
> Tampa Bay

It\'s the announcer.  He is the aural equivalent of a weekday card on  the Aqueduct Inner Dirt.

[richiebee]

Sight:

I have always thought that contraction (less racing, fewer tracks, smaller
foal crop) would be good for the quality of racing and the strength of the
breed, but optimally this contraction would have been engineered by a central
governing body or a consortium of state racing organizations.

The type of drastic contraction (due to economic pressures) we are talking
about here is akin to a game of musical chairs, with a lot of humans and
equines left standing when the music stops.

Agree with all of your observations about the foal crop and have always
advocated that the stud book should have been restricted. Horses would have
been required to have longer racing careers before meeting the minimum
requirements necessary to be bred (ie thresholds regarding stakes placement or
lifetime earnings).

Would be interested to know the size of the foal crop in the 1970s when US
breeders produced 3 Triple Crown winners and two near misses (Alydar and
Spectacular Bid). I know that top stallions were bred no more than 40 - 50
times per year; by the late 1980s stallions were bred to over 100 mares, with
some stallions shuttling to the Southern Hemisphere for additional matings.

[hooper]

Richie,
Secretariat\'s crop was 24,300 in 1970. 1973 had 26,800 foals and from there things took off and peaked in 1986(SS and Easy Goer) with 51,000 foals.
In the mid \'60\'s less than 20 stallions covered more than 30 mares. We now have dozens that cover over 100.

[hooper]

These are Jockey Club stats since the peak of production regarding foals,starts and purses. http://www.jockeyclub.com/factbook.asp?section=12

[richiebee]

Hooper:

Thanks for the information. Sad that the Jockey Club collects all of
this information but apparently doesn\'t utilize it.

[miff]

\"Sad that the Jockey Club collects all of
this information but apparently doesn\'t utilize it\"

Bee,

Jockey Club is just another group of Clueless Clowns with their fingerprints all over the general demise of racing in US.


Mike

[sighthound]

The flush financial conditions of the 1980\'s created massive pyramid schemes, with hugely inflated prices, in all horses:  Thoroughbreds, Quarter Horses, Arabians, hunter/jumpers.  And ostriches, btw.  This was the industry actively going for novices flush with new money to spend.  And it worked, for a while.

I remember Leslie Combs selling the first stallion syndications to \"outside\" money, touting the romance and lifestyle of Thoroughbred racing to the rich.  But he was still selling off only 40 shares.  I remember how hard Seth Hancock worked to syndicate Secretariat before he won the Triple Crown -it almost didn\'t sell.  And again, 40 shares ...

Richibee, I agree with all your points regarding the organized collapse of the industry.  And Miff, the Jockey Club is still just the chosen owners with zero interest in the sport other than their own interests.

The industry used to be rich people in it for a lifetime as a hobby or ancillary interest, that loved horses and horse racing, with onlookers (fans) and gamblers around the periphery.  And people that also loved horses: the trainers and workers, in the sport.  That\'s who the industry supported:  the trainers and workers.  The rich just did it for enjoyment. They didn\'t need money out of it, their money came from elsewhere.

Now the industry is supposed to support first, gamblers, secondly, owners in it for investment purposes, not any love of the horse or sport.

I also agree with Richibee\'s doom and gloom that I think racing, as the paradigm currently exists, is unable to support itself.  I agree with Hoop and Miff, too.  Good points, all.

I imagine racing will collapse back to the 1950-1960\'s version: those with outside wealth buying, selling and racing horses among themselves for sport, with a horse-loving trainer/support industry supplying the expertise.

[Boscar Obarra]

Most announcers grate after a while. Not a fan of the GP guy calling out the names of every horse as they load.

moosepalm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> richiebee Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > 1) Read Beyer\'s DRF article regarding a marked
> > decrease in business at
> > Tampa Bay
>
> It\'s the announcer.  He is the aural equivalent of
> a weekday card on  the Aqueduct Inner Dirt.

[moosepalm]

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Most announcers grate after a while.



He had me at \"Hello.\"

[Edgorman]

The Larry Collmus calls at Gulfstream are duller than the \"Flag is Up\" calls of Marshall Cassidy.  Collmus lucked into some notoriety with that race with the two \"Wife\" horses coming  down the stretch but he actually said nothing funny or clever.

[P-Dub]

Edgorman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The Larry Collmus calls at Gulfstream are duller
> than the \"Flag is Up\" calls of Marshall Cassidy.
> Collmus lucked into some notoriety with that race
> with the two \"Wife\" horses coming  down the
> stretch but he actually said nothing funny or
> clever.

He repeated the names ad nauseum down the stretch.  A complete lack of imagination on that call, I can only imagine how someone like Wrona would\'ve called it.  He\'s one of the more underrated guys out there.

And I\'ll say it again, the Gold standard for bad announcers is Batagglia, then there is everyone else. He\'s been awful at everything...from the BC picks he used to do with Neumeier (bad handicapper plus awful voice plus goofy face = WTF is he doing on this telecast?? Taling about Batagglia not Bob), to his gawd awful race calls, to watching him announce a ML, he is just terrible.

Haven\'t paid attention to Collmus lately, but I always liked him when he was here in No Cal and I thought his TC race calls were pretty good.

[drbillym]

No doubt about Battaglia being the WORST!  Even Rick B. would agree with you, P-Dub!  I think Frank Miramati is doing a great job at Oaklawn-accurate, insightful, imaginative and pleasant to listen to.

[P-Dub]

drbillym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No doubt about Battaglia being the WORST!  Even
> Rick B. would agree with you, P-Dub!  I think
> Frank Miramati is doing a great job at
> Oaklawn-accurate, insightful, imaginative and
> pleasant to listen to.

Agree about Frank.

A mutual friend introduced me to Frank, and you couldn\'t meet a nicer guy.